ATL: LESLIE - Models

[rainstorm]

season may be ending early based on the models

Check the "Global Models Runs Discussion thread" at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=104813&p=2272987#p2272987

i hope that verifies. some people say setp 20-oct10 will pick up.

[rainstorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

2 points of interest here. the most important is the big high building over the midwest with lowering pressures over the western carib and GOM. good set up for a storm to spin up. also, 12z gfs once again appears to be stalling leslie, and if that high can build further east, who knows?

[Riptide]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2012090112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

2 points of interest here. the most important is the big high building over the midwest with lowering pressures over the western carib and GOM. good set up for a storm to spin up. also, 12z gfs once again appears to be stalling leslie, and if that high can build further east, who knows?

Good points, the GFS is recorrecting itself after deepening the central atlantic low too much; should keep coming west in future runs.

[rainstorm]

we will see about that. if it stalls long enough for that high to build it might. meanwhile, it looks like a good set-up for a gom, west carib spin up.

[jinftl]

hmm...could leslie pull a jeanne and loop back west?

[rainstorm]

based on those its going nowhere fast, if it survives.

[Hurricane Alexis]

hmm...could leslie pull a jeanne and loop back west?

Was Jeanne forecasted to be a recurve at first?

[floridasun78]

hmm...could leslie pull a jeanne and loop back west?

Was Jeanne forecasted to be a recurve at first?

i think it was

[floridasun78]

here jenne cone http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/JE ... hics.shtml it look like cone of LESLIE a bit

[fci]

hmm...could leslie pull a jeanne and loop back west?

Was Jeanne forecasted to be a recurve at first?

i think it was

Jeanne absolutely was forecast to recurve.
It had just been through getting slaughtered over Hispanola and I clearly remember Steve Lyons saying it was a Bermuda issue.
However, conditions are quite different now and I don't think there are any monster ridges forecast to push Leslie (or the remnants) westward like Jeanne.

[rainstorm]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

On another matter, Leslie tracks on ECMWF ensembles shifting west with several members now back to 70west. Bermuda target on most

gfs also appears to have moved further west.

[rainstorm]

12z GFS looks pretty odd.

[rainstorm]

im having trouble posting a map, but it appears quite strong and alot further west. a threat at least for new england.

[Riptide]

12z GFS looks pretty odd.

I was highly concerned at one point, the way it builds in that high pressure is just very anomalous. Leslie was traveling NW at 30N. The ensembles should be interesting. Leslie also experiences rapid intensification near Bermuda; almost wilma-esque intensification.

[ROCK]

here is the loop of the 12Z

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[ROCK]

here is the loop of the 12Z NOGAPS

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Riptide]

12z CMC, it's a good thing the CMC has been performing poorly or I would fall out of my chair if this happened. Leslie would continue northward into New England; blocking high pressure.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

There a lot of question with Leslie, model wise. Below I list just a few.

1.) Will Leslie even survive the shear long term?

2.) What effect will the blocking high have on Leslie's long term track, after the first trough moves away?

3.) What effect will a weaker, sheared, Leslie have on the track projections going forward?

[rainstorm]

the models are dropping a low down the ohio valley. still a threat to new england.

[rainstorm]

will be interesting to see if the euro returns to its earlier threat to new england.