ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[hurricanes1234]

The circulation literally ripped away from the convection - is the shear that strong? Crushed and destroyed by unprecedented hostile conditions - but thank God, because it would have affected Florida as a stronger system if it developed.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurrMark]

The circulation literally ripped away from the convection - is the shear that strong? Crushed and destroyed by unprecedented hostile conditions - but thank God, because it would have affected Florida as a stronger system if it developed.

What makes this "unprecedented"? Shear is not that uncommon...maybe not that frequent at this part of the season, but it happens from time to time.

I do see, though, that the effects of El Nino are starting to pop up in the Atlantic basin. I am getting more convinced that Isaac will be the only threat to the US this year and we will go a seventh year without a major hurricane striking the US

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Hope your right.

[Blinhart]

Well this is the Spawn of Isaac, so it might do the unexpected just like Daddy Isaac. So never say never.

[Ptarmigan]

oh the GOM has one more in her for this year....give it a week...

The GOM has something under its sleeves. I have seen the GOM have storms in October and some have made landfall as major.

[SeminoleWind]

oh the GOM has one more in her for this year....give it a week...

The GOM has something under its sleeves. I have seen the GOM have storms in October and some have made landfall as major.

Hurricane Opal comes to mind.

[rainstorm]

oh the GOM has one more in her for this year....give it a week...

The GOM has something under its sleeves. I have seen the GOM have storms in October and some have made landfall as major.

Hurricane Opal comes to mind.

the GOM hasnt produced anything in a very long time. even gustav that came through the gulf was never able to develop a clear eye and deepen when conditions appeared near perfect.

[bonjourno]

Swirl looks perhaps a tad less naked, but not in good shape by any means. You can see anything that's tried to pop up overnight getting blown southwestward.

It also looks like the circulation itself is trying to start to pull east but the blobs of convection are still heading southwest.

The last couple of SHIPS runs also have been steadily going down in intensity, the 06z one barely peaks at about 38 knots 72 hours out from now. IVCN maybe two or three knots higher.

[Florida1118]

NHC must have a glitch; 90L no longer appears on the GTWO or the main page.

EDIT: Fixed.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SQUALLS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. THE LOW HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD SINCE YESTERDAY BUT IT IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[rainstorm]

20% may be too high.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection trying to build now near the center. its not moving very much still has some potential

[Stormcenter]

Agree.....per satellite is looks to be due south of SE LA.

Convection trying to build now near the center. its not moving very much still has some potential

[tolakram]

Latest


Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm guessing they didn't have a chance to get a good look at the morning visual images before posting the 8am TWO. Looks better this morning than it did all day yesterday. The LLC is still healthy and it now has some convection cover.

[ozonepete]

I'm guessing they didn't have a chance to get a good look at the morning visual images before posting the 8am TWO. Looks better this morning than it did all day yesterday. The LLC is still healthy and it now has some convection cover.

That's what I see. They should have waited for visible. In the GOM at this time of year something can explode in a few hours and this has 24 hours to do it. Just ask Humberto...

[tolakram]

Can someone point to the LLC?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

All I see is an oblong area of rotating clouds that seem to be getting less organized by the minute.

[LarryWx]

Can someone point to the LLC?

All I see is an oblong area of rotating clouds that seem to be getting less organized by the minute.

The interest being given this benign invest is indicative of how boring and slow it is out there with regard to U.S. threats during the now peak of the season.

[ozonepete]

Can someone point to the LLC?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

All I see is an oblong area of rotating clouds that seem to be getting less organized by the minute.

I see it at 27.3N 89.5W.

I'm curious what you think, Aric?

[Aric Dunn]

Can someone point to the LLC?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

All I see is an oblong area of rotating clouds that seem to be getting less organized by the minute.

The little structure to the north is just a eddy.

[ozonepete]

Can someone point to the LLC?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

All I see is an oblong area of rotating clouds that seem to be getting less organized by the minute.

The little structure to the north is just a eddy.

So do you see any center at any level?