ATL: NADINE - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 67
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST SAT SEP 29 2012

...NADINE A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 35.9W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST SAT SEP 29 2012

IT APPEARS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS STARTING TO WEAKEN NADINE. ALMOST
ALL OF DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW AN INCREASING SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL CENTERS. WITH THE DEGRADATION IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 60 KT...A BLEND OF THE T AND CI
NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. WHILE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SSTS SHOULD DECREASE AS NADINE
GAINS LATITUDE. NORMALLY THIS PATTERN WOULD CALL FOR ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING...BUT UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
COOL...WHICH COULD HELP THE CYCLONE KEEP ITS STRENGTH. VERY LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER INITIAL STATE.

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES GIVE A CONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION OF
340/10. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR A DAY OR SO UNTIL
STEERING CURRENTS BREAK DOWN TO THE NORTHWEST OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT IS GENERALLY SHOWING MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN NADINE AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH CAUSES NADINE TO UNDERGO A CYCLONIC
LOOP IN 2 TO 4 DAY TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS LOOP...AND NOW MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW IT
BESIDES THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TRENDED
TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS...SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FIRST DAY
OR SO...AND A SMALL SOUTHWARD LOOP IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. A RATHER
LARGE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN AT BY DAY 5...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY CAUSE NADINE TO FINALLY
LEAVE THE SUBTROPICS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE STORM
BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 5 DUE TO COLDER WATERS AND STRONGER
SHEAR...BUT GIVEN PAST EXPERIENCE...I HAVE ELECTED NOT TO SHOW THIS
TRANSITION YET.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 31.9N 35.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 33.5N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 35.4N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 36.4N 37.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 36.2N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 35.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 35.5N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 37.5N 33.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 68
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 29 2012

...NADINE REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 36.2W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.2 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NADINE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 68
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 29 2012

ALTHOUGH ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW 20
KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...NADINE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN EYE HAS RE-APPEARED IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND AN SSM/IS OVERPASS AT 1112 UTC SHOWED THAT
THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOW MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT.
ALSO...CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE NEAR 80 KT...AND A RECENT CIMSS AMSU
ESTIMATE IS 64 KT. BASED ON THESE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 65 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 345/12. NADINE IS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THE
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO MERGE WITH THE LOW BETWEEN
24-72 HR...WITH THE SYSTEM THEN CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NADINE
WILL SLOW DOWN AND MAKE A CYCLONIC LOOP DURING THE NEXT 72-96 HR.
THE CANADIAN MODEL FORECASTS THE LARGEST LOOP...WITH THE CENTER OF
NADINE MOVING SOUTH OF 30N BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE LOOP SCENARIO...BUT TO KEEP CONTINUITY
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IT SHOWS LESS OF A SOUTHWARD MOTION THAN
INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE. AFTER 96 HR...THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC CYCLONE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE ASSOCIATED WESTERLY WINDS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO AT LEAST 30N. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER NADINE TO THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ROTATING AROUND
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NOW APPROACHING NADINE FROM THE SOUTH.
IT IS POSSIBLE THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY DESPITE THE SHEAR...SO THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS NADINE A HURRICANE THROUGH 24 HR. NADINE
COULD ENCOUNTER DECREASING SHEAR AS IT MERGES WITH THE LOW.
HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS...WITH
THE GFS SHOWING CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE STORM AT 36 HR
AND THE ECMWF SHOWING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DURING THE MERGER BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT IT
WILL AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DISRUPT THE STRUCTURE OF NADINE. LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...INTERACTION BETWEEN NADINE AND THE BAROCLINIC
CYCLONE SHOULD LEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR THIS AT 120 HR...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE DELAYED IF NADINE
IS SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 33.3N 36.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 34.8N 36.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 36.4N 37.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 36.7N 38.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 36.3N 38.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 35.5N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 35.5N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 38.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 69
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 29 2012

...NADINE GETS A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 36.7W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.7 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH SUNDAY. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NADINE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 69
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST SAT SEP 29 2012

ALTHOUGH ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW
20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...NADINE HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE APPARENT IN
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY...AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN
BANDING AROUND THE EYE. A RECENT SSM/IS OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE
EYE IS TILTED TOWARD THE NORTH...BUT THE TILT IS LESS THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...THE CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS NEAR 80 KT...THE LATEST
AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA ARE IN THE 70-80 KT RANGE...AND
THE LATEST CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE IS 78 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A
LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/13. NADINE IS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
TO THE EAST AND A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THE GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO MERGE WITH THE LOW BETWEEN 24-72
HR...WITH THE SYSTEM THEN CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NADINE
WILL SLOW DOWN AND MAKE A CYCLONIC LOOP DURING THE NEXT 96 HR.
THE CANADIAN MODEL FORECASTS THE LARGEST LOOP...WITH THE CENTER OF
NADINE MOVING SOUTHWARD TO 30N BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK SHOWS MORE SOUTHWARD MOTION DURING THE LOOP THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL NOT AS MUCH AS FORECAST BY THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 96 HR...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A LARGE
BAROCLINIC CYCLONE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WITH
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERLY WINDS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO AT LEAST 30N.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER NADINE TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

NADINE DOES NOT APPEAR AS SHEARED AS THE CIMSS/SHIPS-ANALYZED SHEAR
SUGGESTS...AND IT MAY BE THAT A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS PARTIALLY SHELTERING IT. THIS
TROUGH COULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE...
AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12 HR. FROM 24-72 HR...NADINE
COULD ENCOUNTER DECREASING SHEAR AS IT MERGES WITH THE
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...THIS MERGER IS LIKELY TO AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT DISRUPT THE STRUCTURE...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR WEAKENING DURING THIS
TIME. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...INTERACTION BETWEEN NADINE AND
THE BAROCLINIC CYCLONE SHOULD LEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS AT 120 HR...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE
DELAYED IF NADINE IS SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 34.4N 36.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 35.8N 37.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 36.7N 38.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 36.5N 38.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 35.9N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 35.0N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 35.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 38.5N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 70
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 29 2012

...STUBBORN NADINE NOT ONLY SURVIVES BUT STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 37.5W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. NADINE COULD AGAIN BECOME STATIONARY
LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NADINE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 70
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 29 2012

THE EYE OF NADINE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN MICROWAVE DATA AND
CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY TONIGHT. THE EYE IS NEARLY SURROUNDED BY
RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE
PRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THE BLEND OF
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. NADINE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME SMALL
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE CYCLONE
TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY...WITH LOW SHEAR BUT A RELATIVELY
COOL OCEAN. AFTER THAT...NADINE SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A
LARGE TROUGH AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

NADINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO APPROACH AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING
CURRENTS AND CONSEQUENTLY...NADINE WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
SOON. ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FORM NORTHWEST OF
NADINE...AND THIS PATTERN WILL AGAIN TRAP THE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS. A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THE FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH WILL
FINALLY KICK NADINE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AROUND THE
DEEPENING TROUGH. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE HOW THE TRACK MODELS
UNANIMOUSLY INSIST ON LOOPING NADINE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH AND THEN
TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. FOR
THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 35.6N 37.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 36.8N 38.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 37.0N 39.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 36.5N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 35.5N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 35.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 36.0N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 41.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 71
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

...NADINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.6N 37.8W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.8 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. NADINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NADINE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 71
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

NADINE APPEARS TO HAVE GAINED A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH THIS MORNING.
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS
EXPANDED AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE RAGGED EYE DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T4.5/77 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...AND ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE 4.7/82 KT. BASED ON
THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 80 KT.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE STEERING CURRENTS...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS NADINE BECOMES TRAPPED BETWEEN A PAIR OF
RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST AND A TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. THIS COMPLEX
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO MAKE A CYCLONIC LOOP OR
MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...A LARGE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE NADINE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DURING THAT TIME. AT
DAYS 4 AND 5...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN HOW
NADINE INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...
FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE...AS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WHEN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEARS THE CYCLONE. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW NADINE
TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 36.6N 37.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 37.2N 38.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 36.9N 39.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 36.1N 39.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 35.4N 38.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 35.4N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 38.5N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 46.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 72
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

...LONG-LASTING NADINE EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ONCE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 38.6W
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.6 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY. A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NADINE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 72
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

THE EYE OF NADINE HAS BECOME A LITTLE SMALLER AND BETTER DEFINED
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
SOMEWHAT. THIS RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MOST RECENT
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS...AND A CONSENSUS OF
THE LATEST SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 80 KT. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A
LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SINCE NADINE
IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND NOT MOVE VERY FAR...THERE COULD BE
SOME UPWELLING WHICH WILL CAUSE THE ALREADY MARGINAL SSTS TO COOL.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO COOL WHICH
COULD OFFSET THE COOLER WATER. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48
HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER
ALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND NADINE
IS PREDICTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

NADINE HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 12-18
HOURS...HOWEVER THE HURRICANE SHOULD SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY LATER
TODAY AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN. NADINE IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE A COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND
WEST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER 48
HOURS...A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST OF CANADA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND CUT OFF
AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 4-5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD FINALLY CAUSE NADINE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...HOWEVER
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS TO WHETHER NADINE CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC OR TURNS WESTWARD AND IS ABSORBED BY THE UPPER-LOW. THE
NHC FORECAST SPLITS THESE DIFFERENCES AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 37.1N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 37.3N 39.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 36.6N 39.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 35.9N 39.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 35.6N 38.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 36.3N 35.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 40.8N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 48.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 73
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

...NADINE PERFORMING LOOP-THE-LOOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.2N 39.2W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. NADINE IS
FORECAST TO MAKE A SLOW COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NADINE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT NADINE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 73
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE EYE OF NADINE HAS BECOME MORE
RAGGED AND THE SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED. HOWEVER...
DVORAK CI-NUMBERS REMAIN 4.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE INCREASING MARKEDLY FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. UNTIL THAT TIME...NADINE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR
ABOUT 48 HOURS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER AND SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY...AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BECOME MUCH
COLDER. FASTER WEAKENING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED AT THE LATTER PART
OF THE FORECAST...AND NADINE SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT
5 DAYS.

NADINE IS SLOWING DOWN AND BEGINNING ITS COUNTERCLOCKWISE TURN. THE
ESTIMATED MOTION IS 290/6...BUT THE HURRICANE WILL SOON BE SLOWING
DOWN FURTHER AND TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NADINE SHOULD BEGIN FEELING THE PRESENCE OF
STRONGER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...AT WHICH TIME
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS
NADINE CONTINUING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION UNTIL IT BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE
CYCLONE TURNING WESTWARD AND REVOLVING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
DEEP-LAYER CUT-OFF LOW. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN
THESE TWO SCENARIOS...LYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 37.2N 39.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 37.0N 39.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 36.2N 39.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 35.7N 38.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 35.5N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 37.0N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 43.5N 28.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 49.5N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 74
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

...NADINE SLOWING DOWN AS IT MAKES A COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 39.4W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST. NADINE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A SLOW
COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH NADINE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST BY LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NADINE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NADINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
125 MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 74
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

NADINE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE RAGGED...AND
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN WARMING. THERE HAS ALSO
BEEN AN EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION...
WITH THE BULK OF WHAT REMAINS PIVOTING FROM WEST TO SOUTH AROUND
THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING...AND A BLEND
OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KT.
A SLOW BUT STEADY DECAY OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS AS NADINE ENCOUNTERS GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR AND THE
COLD WAKE THAT THE CYCLONE GENERATED YESTERDAY. FROM 24-72 HOURS...
A MARKED INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY SHEAR AND EVEN
COOLER WATERS COULD HASTEN THE WEAKENING TREND. PROHIBITIVELY HIGH
SHEAR AFTER 72 HOURS MIGHT RESULT IN A DECOUPLING OF THE STORM...
AND NADINE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER...IN 96
HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT.

NADINE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN WHILE IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A
CYCLONIC LOOP...AND THE SHORT-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
230/06. THE NORTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE HEIGHTS TO RISE NORTH OF NADINE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN COULD RESULT IN NADINE
SLOWING FURTHER AS IT HEADS BACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-
EASTWARD. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE WEAKENING STORM SHOULD TURN EASTWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ACCELERATES AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE
MOVING OUT OF ATLANTIC CANADA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST SINCE THE LAST CYCLE...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE TOWARD THE RIGHT...BUT
IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 36.7N 39.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 36.3N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 35.7N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 35.2N 37.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 35.4N 36.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 38.0N 31.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 44.6N 26.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 06/0000Z 50.0N 27.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 75
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012

...NADINE WEAKENS AS IT TURNS SOUTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 39.3W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 175 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.3 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NADINE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 75
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012

NADINE IS LOSING ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND A RATHER THIN BAND OF
COLD CLOUD TOPS ONLY WRAPS ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND SUPPORT
LOWERING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 65 KT...AND EVEN THAT COULD BE
GENEROUS. NADINE HAS MOVED OVER COOLER WATERS...WHERE THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 22C ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS.
THESE COOL WATERS ARE AT LEAST IN PART CAUSED BY NADINE ITSELF THAT
WAS LOCATED NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION ABOUT A DAY
AGO. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS AIDS. NADINE IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND DAY 4...WHEN IT IS
FORECAST TO BE OVER WATERS BELOW 20C AND IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF
ABOUT 40 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT...STEERED BY
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS NADINE BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
STRONG FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE IN THE SHORT TERM...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT
IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED BEYOND THAT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 36.3N 39.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 35.6N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 35.1N 38.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 34.9N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 35.1N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 38.5N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 46.0N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 06/0600Z 50.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 76
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012

...NADINE WEAKENS AS IT NEARS THE COMPLETION OF YET ANOTHER LOOP...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.8N 39.2W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ALL
OF THE AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. NADINE IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT TURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE EAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AZORES BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 76
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT NADINE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS
ADT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT...MAKING
NADINE A TROPICAL STORM...AGAIN.

NADINE IS NEARING THE END OF ANOTHER LOOP AS IT MOVES TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED
AS THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS AHEAD OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...NADINE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTANGLED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND BEGIN
ACCELERATING TO THE NORTH BY DAY 3. AFTER THAT...THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER NADINE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE
TROUGH...OR WILL ACCELERATE OFF TO THE EAST AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW.
THE FORECAST SPLITS THESE TWO SCENARIOS...AND SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF
NADINE SLOWING DOWN BY DAY 5...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME ABSORBED
BEFORE THAT.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 23 C...AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROUGH...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY DAY 4...
NADINE IS MERCIFULLY EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IN
FACT...THE HWRF MODEL INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BE DEVOID
OF DEEP CONVECTION BY 72 HOURS...SO NADINE COULD BECOME
POST-TROPICAL EVEN EARLIER THAN INDICATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND IS VERY NEAR THE
FSSE CONSENSUS MODEL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...AS NADINE MAKES ITS SECOND APPROACH TOWARD
THE ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 35.8N 39.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 35.3N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 34.9N 37.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 34.9N 36.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 35.4N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 40.0N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 47.0N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 06/1200Z 49.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 76A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
200 PM AST MON OCT 01 2012

...TROPICAL STORM NADINE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 39.4W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. NADINE IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE A COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
TURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE EAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AZORES BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 77
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST MON OCT 01 2012

...NADINE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 39.4W
ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST...FOLLWED BY A TURN TO THE EAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AZORES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 77
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST MON OCT 01 2012

THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE NEARLY THREE-WEEK-OLD NADINE HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...AND DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
CONFINED TO A SINGLE BAND WHICH IS SLOWLY ROTATING AROUND THE
CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE FALLEN TO 3.5 AND
3.0...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT
BASED ON THESE...AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED WINDS OF
45-50 KT IN A CONVECTIVE-FREE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION.

NADINE HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LONG-TERM
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 180/4. WHILE THE TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY
CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...IT IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AND TURN TO
THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. BY DAY 3...MOST
OF THE MODELS SHOW NADINE BEING ADVECTED QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AS A
POST-TROPICAL LOW...BEFORE BECOMING COMPLETELY ABSORBED BY THE
TROUGH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER FROM THIS SOLUTION...AND
SHOWS THE RESILIENT CIRCULATION OF NADINE PUSHING EASTWARD ALL THE
WAY TO GREAT BRITAIN. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
POSSIBILITIES...HOWEVER...IT NOW SHOWS NADINE BEING ABSORBED BY DAY
5. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH THIS
CYCLE...SO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS NADINE EXPERIENCES AN
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STEADY WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ENOUGH OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS...
EVEN AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL. THE NEW FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS...AND REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 35.4N 39.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 35.0N 38.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 34.7N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 34.7N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 35.8N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 42.4N 27.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/1800Z 47.5N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 06/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 77A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 PM AST MON OCT 01 2012

...NADINE NOW MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 39.1W
ABOUT 705 MI...1140 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 165 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.1 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/H. A TURN TO
THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AZORES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 78
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON OCT 01 2012

...NADINE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 38.9W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 78
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST MON OCT 01 2012

THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF NEVER-ENDING NADINE HAS MADE A
COMEBACK THIS EVENING WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION...
WITH CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR -60C HAVING DEVELOPED AROUND THE OLD EYE
FEATURE. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO CONFIRMS THIS RECENT
RE-DEVELOPMENT TREND. ALTHOUGH DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
HAVE DECREASED TO 3.0/45 KT...THE RECENT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF EYEWALL
CONVECTION ARGUES THAT THE INTENSITY BE MAINTAINED AT 55 KT...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CYCLONE IS JUST NOW ENTERING THE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON TWO CONSECUTIVE 34-KT WIND REPORTS
FROM SHIP VRBU6...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH 01/2210Z SSMIS-DERIVED
SURFACE WINDS CO-LOCATED IN THAT SAME AREA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 125/05 KT. NOMADIC NADINE HAS
FINALLY MADE THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND. AS THE TROUGH/LOW DEEPENS WHILE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
TO THE WEST OF THE AZORES...THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE NADINE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ON DAYS 2 AND 3. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A
COUNTERCLOCKWISE MOTION AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING
EXTRATROPICAL LOW ON DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY THE
LARGER SYSTEM ON DAY 5. THE NHC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
LIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NADINE HAS FOUND A SWEET SPOT OF
LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED BENEATH
THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS
SHELTERING OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED
AS THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD AND EXPOSES NADINE TO
HOSTILE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE INCREASING SHEAR COUPLED
WITH DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER 48
HOURS...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SSTS COLDER THAN 20C...
WHICH SHOULD FINALLY BRING ABOUT THE PERMANENT DEMISE OF THIS
RESILIENT AND LONG-LASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND
OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 34.7N 38.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 34.2N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 34.2N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 34.9N 34.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 36.7N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...SOUTHWEST OF AZORES
72H 05/0000Z 44.0N 26.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 06/0000Z 48.0N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 79
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST TUE OCT 02 2012

...NADINE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND MAINTAINING WINDS NEAR 65
MPH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 38.1W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36
TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.1 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 79
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 AM AST TUE OCT 02 2012

THE STORM IS MAINTAINING A RING OF MODERATE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A
RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 55 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN A REGION OF
RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. HOWEVER AS NADINE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE...AND
AFTER 48 HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WATER TEMPERATURES
BELOW 20 DEG C. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 HOURS...GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD
SSTS...NADINE IS LIKELY TO HAVE UNDERGONE THE TRANSFORMATION INTO
A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING
FRONTAL IN NATURE BY 96 HOURS...SO THE CYCLONE IS SHOWN AS
EXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY...OR TO
MERGE WITH...A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC.

NADINE IS GRADUALLY TURNING EASTWARD...AND THE MOTION IS NOW AROUND
105/6. FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FORECAST...AND THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. A
VIGOROUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND RESULT IN A LARGE AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST OF THE AZORES IN A FEW
DAYS. NADINE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN
THE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS
OR SO. AFTERWARDS...IF POST-TROPICAL NADINE HAS STILL MAINTAINED
ITS IDENTITY...IT SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND MOVE AROUND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGER CYCLONE UNTIL BECOMING COMPLETELY
ABSORBED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 34.5N 38.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 34.3N 37.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 34.7N 35.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 35.9N 32.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 38.8N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 45.5N 26.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 06/0600Z 49.0N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 79A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 AM AST TUE OCT 02 2012

...NADINE FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 37.8W
ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36
TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.8 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 80
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 02 2012

...NADINE EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 37.5W
ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NADINE SHOULD APPROACH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN AZORES LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 80
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 02 2012

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS A RING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WRAPS AROUND A RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVELY FROM SAB AND
TAFB...SUGGESTING THAT NADINE COULD BE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
BEFORE. HOWEVER...EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATES LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS MAINTAINED.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
HOSTILE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK. AS A RESULT...SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED IN THE NHC
FORECAST...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. NADINE
SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER SSTS BELOW 20C AFTER
PASSING THE AZORES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE POST-TROPICAL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

NADINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KT...BUT AN
EASTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED VERY SOON. BY WEDNESDAY...THE STORM
SHOULD BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH THAT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. NADINE
IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE
TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY
NEAR THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON THE
EARLIER ASCAT DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 34.2N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 34.4N 36.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 35.3N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 37.1N 31.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 40.7N 28.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 46.5N 28.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 80A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
200 PM AST TUE OCT 02 2012

...NADINE TURNS EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 37.2W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.2 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NADINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN AZORES LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 81
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST TUE OCT 02 2012

...THREE-WEEK-OLD NADINE HEADING TOWARD THE AZORES ONCE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 36.7W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.7 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NADINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AZORES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 81
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST TUE OCT 02 2012

NADINE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUD TOPS
WARMING AND BANDING FEATURES BECOMING LESS PRONOUNCED. DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO
50 KT. AS NADINE BEGINS TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR AND OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NADINE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND FINALLY
LOSE ITS IDENTITY AS IT IS ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
LOW OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

THE STORM HAS TURNED EASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 090/6 KT.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NADINE TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS IT
IS STEERED AROUND A LARGE TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
LIES BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 34.4N 36.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 34.9N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 36.0N 32.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 39.0N 29.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 43.2N 26.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/1800Z 48.0N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 81A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 PM AST TUE OCT 02 2012

...NADINE CONTINUES TOWARD THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 36.1W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.1 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NADINE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AZORES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART