ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

[CrazyC83]

Any model runs?

[cycloneye]

Any model runs?

The first model plots by the Bams should come out very soon. By the way,I made your post at the 94L main discussion thread turned to the models thread.

[cycloneye]

First model plots.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 200050
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0050 UTC THU SEP 20 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120920 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120920  0000   120920  1200   120921  0000   120921  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    30.8N  51.8W   31.3N  53.0W   32.2N  54.8W   33.3N  57.3W
BAMD    30.8N  51.8W   31.2N  52.6W   31.9N  53.9W   32.8N  55.8W
BAMM    30.8N  51.8W   31.2N  52.7W   32.0N  54.4W   33.0N  56.5W
LBAR    30.8N  51.8W   31.4N  52.1W   32.1N  52.5W   33.3N  54.0W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          42KTS          52KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          42KTS          52KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120922  0000   120923  0000   120924  0000   120925  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    34.3N  59.8W   36.4N  63.3W   40.8N  63.5W   47.3N  58.7W
BAMD    33.7N  57.9W   35.1N  60.8W   37.4N  61.9W   44.5N  60.0W
BAMM    33.9N  58.8W   35.7N  62.0W   39.6N  63.0W   47.3N  60.1W
LBAR    34.2N  56.0W   35.8N  59.7W   37.8N  59.1W   37.9N  54.6W
SHIP        57KTS          56KTS          55KTS          44KTS
DSHP        57KTS          56KTS          55KTS          44KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  30.8N LONCUR =  51.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  30.9N LONM12 =  51.0W DIRM12 = 230DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  31.4N LONM24 =  50.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[CrazyC83]

Not sure what this compares to?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Not sure what this compares to?

Perhaps these storms would be good analogs:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1932/7/track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1937/4/track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1943/4/track.gif