WPAC: INVEST 97W

[Meow]

Near Pohnpei.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.1N 156.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 695 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AROUND A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 021918Z SSMIS PASS. THE LLCC LIES IN AN
AREA OF STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST. THE NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT AN A SECOND LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING TO THE WEST OF
THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD, BUT THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE
IS UNLIKELY TO BECOME THE FOCAL POINT FOR THAT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE
DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AND AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 030145
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1145 AM CHST WED OCT 3 2012

PMZ172-173-031300-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-
1145 AM CHST WED OCT 3 2012

...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI...

AT 1100 AM CHST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
CHUUK STATE AND WESTERN POHNPEI STATE SURROUNDING A BROAD
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 156 DEGREES
EAST LONGITUDE. THIS IS ABOUT 325 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
AND 375 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND WESTWARD WITHIN
THE MONSOON FLOW FROM WESTERN POHNPEI STATE...ACROSS CHUUK TO BEYOND
YAP AND PALAU. WINDS ACROSS CHUUK WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH NEAR SHOWERS.

OPEN-OCEAN SEAS ACROSS CHUUK STATE OF 8 TO 9 FEET WILL PERSIST AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 12 FEET WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ON WESTERN SHORES OF CHUUK.

KEEP ALERT FOR ANY LATER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS OR THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE BEFORE ATTEMPTING INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL. REFER TO THE LATEST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

AYDLETT

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
156.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 155.8E, APPROXIMATELY 655 NM EAST
OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY DISORGANIZED SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
OF A BROAD AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 030247
AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A VERY ILL DEFINED LLCC WITH
VERY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE LLCC LIES IN AN AREA OF STRONG
(25-30 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A TUTT CELL HAS
FORMED OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SECOND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING WEST OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD, BUT THE
CURRENT DISTURBANCE IS UNLIKELY TO BECOME THE FOCAL POINT FOR THAT
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. DUE TO A LACK OF ORGANIZATION AND AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

03/1501 UTC 7.9N 155.4E T1.0/1.0 97W -- West Pacific

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N
155.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG WESTERLY WIND BURST (WWB) TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM AND EXTENDS TO
CHUUK. EMBEDDED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WWB IS AN ELONGATED
WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE HAS BEEN
SPORADIC FIRING OF CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE AREA. THE WWB IS
LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH OF GUAM WHICH IS CREATING A WEAK REGION OF DIVERGENCE OVER
THE LLCC WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.