ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Wthrman13
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 502
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 12:44 pm
Location: West Lafayette, IN
Contact:

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1141 Postby Wthrman13 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 3:59 pm

Frank2 wrote:
Some have been drying out as they move inland, but we did get a soaking before sunrise in Cooper City and I'm sure we'll get soaked again - MIA will probably break the old annual record of 90" with this system - that's getting close to 8 feet of rain, folks...

P.S. When I refered to pressure gradient wind, that means (in my mind) that the wind we are experiencing is not directly from Sandy, but just the pressure difference between the high to the northeast and Sandy to the east, and, the "Out Islands" of the Bahamas are as far from Miami as we are from Atlanta (700 miles), so there (lol)...


Just to add to the discussion about pressure gradients: superstareporter is correct. All air motion relative to the Earth's surface is ultimately driven by pressure gradients, including winds in tropical cyclones.

I'll have to say, I'm in awe over some of the model solutions for this storm once it phases with the trough and moves inland. The models are almost unanimously maintaining a warm core with the system all the way up to landfall even while the wind field expands and the storm is enhanced by baroclinic effects. We could be in a situation where we have a strong hurricane at landfall, while the outer precip bands in the cold air over OH/PA are dumping heavy wet snow. It really depends on how much the inner core of the system can maintain tropical characteristics and a tight inner wind field. I foresee a wave of M.S. and Ph.D. theses focusing on this storms evolution in the years ahead if it all pans out like the models are suggesting :).
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#1142 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:01 pm

that c-man station just a gust to 59kts. nearly 70mph.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1542
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

#1143 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:08 pm

Seems most of the Bahamas got off okay. Here's a picture out of Long Island; looks like pretty standard hurricane damage type stuff. :P

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Weatherguy173
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 148
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2012 10:55 pm
Location: Short Hills NJ

Re:

#1144 Postby Weatherguy173 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:10 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Before this season, I think there was only one recorded time when a Tropical system became Subtropical and not vice versa. It might happen twice this year. Incredible.


this has been one strange, record setting, theory defying, and mystifying hurricane season.
0 likes   
Nothing I say is intended to be a forecast; it's only food for thought and friendly advice!

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re:

#1145 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:13 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:that c-man station just a gust to 59kts. nearly 70mph.

were?
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1146 Postby Macrocane » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:18 pm

Pictures from Cuba:


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane_Luis
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 723
Age: 25
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 3:14 pm
Location: Tiptree, Essex, United Kingdom
Contact:

#1147 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:19 pm

Did the small compact wind field help it strengthen and survive its trek across Jamaica, Cuba and The Bahamas?

And a few news articels from the BBC.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-20066241

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-20071080
0 likes   

stephen23
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 341
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:57 pm
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1148 Postby stephen23 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:22 pm

Looks like some convection firing again in the feeder bands?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1149 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:29 pm

This has the potential to a historic storm for the northeast. Something we'll talk about decades from now (I hope I'll be around decades from now). A very large subtropical storm with hurricane-force wind striking south of Long Island/NHC nearly head-on into the coast would be an extremely rare event. This could set the record for the number of people without power from a single storm. Flooding will be like nothing many have seen in their lifetimes. Very, very bad...
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5459
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1150 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:This has the potential to a historic storm for the northeast. Something we'll talk about decades from now (I hope I'll be around decades from now). A very large subtropical storm with hurricane-force wind striking south of Long Island/NHC nearly head-on into the coast would be an extremely rare event. This could set the record for the number of people without power from a single storm. Flooding will be like nothing many have seen in their lifetimes. Very, very bad...


wxman, I've been a member here for around 7 years now, and I have never seen you speak like this. I've never seen you this worried. And that worries me.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138882
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1151 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:This has the potential to a historic storm for the northeast. Something we'll talk about decades from now (I hope I'll be around decades from now). A very large subtropical storm with hurricane-force wind striking south of Long Island/NHC nearly head-on into the coast would be an extremely rare event. This could set the record for the number of people without power from a single storm. Flooding will be like nothing many have seen in their lifetimes. Very, very bad...


Wow 57,strong wording there.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

stephen23
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 341
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:57 pm
Location: North Fort Worth

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1152 Postby stephen23 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:31 pm

wxman57 wrote:This has the potential to a historic storm for the northeast. Something we'll talk about decades from now (I hope I'll be around decades from now). A very large subtropical storm with hurricane-force wind striking south of Long Island/NHC nearly head-on into the coast would be an extremely rare event. This could set the record for the number of people without power from a single storm. Flooding will be like nothing many have seen in their lifetimes. Very, very bad...



Wxman, from my understanding is this could cause flooding at scales much worst then Katrina. Im I correct with my understanding?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9254
Age: 52
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1153 Postby ROCK » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:32 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
wxman57 wrote:This has the potential to a historic storm for the northeast. Something we'll talk about decades from now (I hope I'll be around decades from now). A very large subtropical storm with hurricane-force wind striking south of Long Island/NHC nearly head-on into the coast would be an extremely rare event. This could set the record for the number of people without power from a single storm. Flooding will be like nothing many have seen in their lifetimes. Very, very bad...


wxman, I've been a member here for around 7 years now, and I have never seen you speak like this. I've never seen you this worried. And that worries me.



he didnt even talk like this with IKE and we were both in the western eyewall for 6 hours.... :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1937
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1154 Postby johngaltfla » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:34 pm

wxman57 wrote:This has the potential to a historic storm for the northeast. Something we'll talk about decades from now (I hope I'll be around decades from now). A very large subtropical storm with hurricane-force wind striking south of Long Island/NHC nearly head-on into the coast would be an extremely rare event. This could set the record for the number of people without power from a single storm. Flooding will be like nothing many have seen in their lifetimes. Very, very bad...


wx, as long as I have seen you here, I've never heard you so concerned. My question to you and other mets, is if there is a possibility of freezing weather impacting the region after the storm passes, which would be doubly devastating. Once the power is out with a wind swath like this, we could see folks without heat for upwards of a month and right into the start of winter.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31390
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#1155 Postby KWT » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:37 pm

If this comes off like the models are expecting, then indeed this is a rare and probably historic event. For a system to slingshot in from the SE/SSE into the east coast and to probably by that time have a very large wind area is a little worrying.

Being on the other side of the Atlantic I take great interest in these storms going Extra-tropical. The flooding is a worry but don't under-estimate how high the gusts can go in these systems. I've seen fairly bog standard 970-980mbs lows give 70-80mph gusts over a fairly large area, so a 930-950mbs low like nearly all the models are progging will probably give higher gusts and over a larger area.

The only time I've seen a bigger warning from Wxman57 was with Katrina, where he pretty much said that people will die if they didn't leave NO and it was the worst case situation...
Last edited by KWT on Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

yzerfan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 588
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:09 pm
Location: Niceville, FL

#1156 Postby yzerfan » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:38 pm

A lot of the vulnerable areas on the greater NYC flood/surge zone maps are either densely populated or heavily used for industrial/commercial purposes. JFK Airport's runways could easily go underwater from a hurricane in a worst position situation.
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1157 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:38 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
wxman57 wrote:This has the potential to a historic storm for the northeast. Something we'll talk about decades from now (I hope I'll be around decades from now). A very large subtropical storm with hurricane-force wind striking south of Long Island/NHC nearly head-on into the coast would be an extremely rare event. This could set the record for the number of people without power from a single storm. Flooding will be like nothing many have seen in their lifetimes. Very, very bad...


wxman, I've been a member here for around 7 years now, and I have never seen you speak like this. I've never seen you this worried. And that worries me.

I can remember a certain day back in late August of 2005 when he did speak like this...*cough*.

And just think, even Katrina did not have snow as an additional hazard.
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#1158 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:41 pm

I agree Wxman...I also think we see historic snow as well.
0 likes   

User avatar
angelwing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4462
Age: 62
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:06 pm
Location: Kulpsville, PA

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1159 Postby angelwing » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:42 pm

I am very worried about storm surge...granted I am not at the shore, I live 30 miles from Phiilly, but work in downtown Philly, 19 blocks from the Delaware. I also take the Surekill expressway to get to my other job in Philly, I am extremely worried about flooding and am getting concerned about storm surge.

Also at home we have a sump pump in our basement (most homes do in our cul-de-sac), I have no idea what happens if the electric goes out ...I am worried
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 35
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1160 Postby Macrocane » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:45 pm

It's worrying to see 2 of our best pro mets talking like that, I think people in US East Coast should prepare, stay calmed but prepared.
0 likes   


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 27 guests