ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

NOTE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE NOT
DESIGNED TO HANDLE THE TYPE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH
SANDY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THESE PROBABILITIES
WILL UNDERESTIMATE THE ACTUAL RISK OF STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM THE
CENTER OF SANDY.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2037.shtml

That's probably why NWS Miami has forecasted gusts up to 70 MPH along the coastline

[jlauderdal]

NOTE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE NOT
DESIGNED TO HANDLE THE TYPE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH
SANDY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THESE PROBABILITIES
WILL UNDERESTIMATE THE ACTUAL RISK OF STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM THE
CENTER OF SANDY.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2037.shtml

That's probably why NWS Miami has forecasted gusts up to 70 MPH along the coastline

tweet from miami nbc weather forecaster
RyanNBC66 secs
No power at the weatherman's house for 2 hours...but I do have a lantern and an iPad with 3G. Something just doesn't seem right about this.





COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JUPITER...WEST PALM BEACH...BOCA RATON...
POMPANO BEACH...FORT LAUDERDALE...FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH...
HOLLYWOOD BEACH...AVENTURA...MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI SHORES...
DOWNTOWN MIAMI...CUTLER BAY...HOMESTEAD BAYFRONT PARK
755 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

..TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT

FRIDAY
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS
LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS 79 TO 83. NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH BECOMING
NORTHWEST 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. PARTLY CLOUDY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS 70 TO 74. NORTHWEST
WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 65 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT.

[AdamFirst]

NWS Melbourne hasn't followed suit for the Central Florida coast - still calling for just 50-55 MPH maximum gust.

[Bocadude85]

NOTE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE NOT
DESIGNED TO HANDLE THE TYPE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH
SANDY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THESE PROBABILITIES
WILL UNDERESTIMATE THE ACTUAL RISK OF STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM THE
CENTER OF SANDY.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2037.shtml

That's probably why NWS Miami has forecasted gusts up to 70 MPH along the coastline

tweet from miami nbc weather forecaster
RyanNBC66 secs
No power at the weatherman's house for 2 hours...but I do have a lantern and an iPad with 3G. Something just doesn't seem right about this.





COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JUPITER...WEST PALM BEACH...BOCA RATON...
POMPANO BEACH...FORT LAUDERDALE...FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH...
HOLLYWOOD BEACH...AVENTURA...MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI SHORES...
DOWNTOWN MIAMI...CUTLER BAY...HOMESTEAD BAYFRONT PARK
755 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

..TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT

FRIDAY
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS
LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS 79 TO 83. NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH BECOMING
NORTHWEST 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. PARTLY CLOUDY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS 70 TO 74. NORTHWEST
WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 65 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT.

I wonder why the gusts are so much higher then the sustained winds? Normally when you have sustained winds of 35mph you would get 45mph gusts.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track at 85kts.

AL, 18, 2012102600, , BEST, 0, 248N, 758W, 85, 965, HU

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[ozonepete]

If a storm the size and strength the models are predicting hits NYC what kind of storm surge would we see 25ft or higher that have to be a category 5 surge at that size and strength? And another question I heard Brian Norcross on the weather channel saying it is possible for the storm to have a sub 940 pressure because the hurricane will get wrapped into the nor easter and then it will begin to regain tropical characteristics? So its basically like a hurricane on steroids? Can someone elaborate a little more on this because It is very interesting.

Look back to my post at 7PM, and here's a little more to clarify. The hurricane won't get "wrapped into the nor'easter" nor will it be able to regain tropical characteristics once it starts losing them. As it starts to move north past Hatteras it would normally weaken due to moving over cooler water (its energy source is warm water). But it will get energized by a strong mid-atmospheric level trough moving southeastward into the eastern U.S. from Canada. This will cause it to go from a barotropic storm (tropical warm-core type) to a baroclinic storm (energy derived from the temperature difference across fronts.) The main reason it will develop such a low pressure is because it will expand to a very large size as it's being energized by cooler air from the trough and the higher in latitude you go from the tropics the lower a storm's pressure has to be to maintain winds of the same strength.

[pricetag56]

If a storm the size and strength the models are predicting hits NYC what kind of storm surge would we see 25ft or higher that have to be a category 5 surge at that size and strength? And another question I heard Brian Norcross on the weather channel saying it is possible for the storm to have a sub 940 pressure because the hurricane will get wrapped into the nor easter and then it will begin to regain tropical characteristics? So its basically like a hurricane on steroids? Can someone elaborate a little more on this because It is very interesting.

Look back to my post at 7PM, and here's a little more to clarify. The hurricane won't get "wrapped into the nor'easter" nor will it be able to regain tropical characteristics once it starts losing them. As it starts to move north past Hatteras it would normally weaken due to moving over cooler water (its energy source is warm water). But it will get energized by a strong mid-atmospheric level trough moving southeastward into the eastern U.S. from Canada. This will cause it to go from a barotropic storm (tropical warm-core type) to a baroclinic storm (energy derived from the temperature difference across fronts.) The main reason it will develop such a low pressure is because it will expand to a very large size as it's being energized by cooler air from the trough and the higher in latitude you go from the tropics the lower a storm's pressure has to be to maintain winds of the same strength.

Oh ok that makes more sense now I remember other storms that had that happen to them. So what kind of storm surge would a storm that size produce?

[pricetag56]

If a storm the size and strength the models are predicting hits NYC what kind of storm surge would we see 25ft or higher that have to be a category 5 surge at that size and strength? And another question I heard Brian Norcross on the weather channel saying it is possible for the storm to have a sub 940 pressure because the hurricane will get wrapped into the nor easter and then it will begin to regain tropical characteristics? So its basically like a hurricane on steroids? Can someone elaborate a little more on this because It is very interesting.

Look back to my post at 7PM, and here's a little more to clarify. The hurricane won't get "wrapped into the nor'easter" nor will it be able to regain tropical characteristics once it starts losing them. As it starts to move north past Hatteras it would normally weaken due to moving over cooler water (its energy source is warm water). But it will get energized by a strong mid-atmospheric level trough moving southeastward into the eastern U.S. from Canada. This will cause it to go from a barotropic storm (tropical warm-core type) to a baroclinic storm (energy derived from the temperature difference across fronts.) The main reason it will develop such a low pressure is because it will expand to a very large size as it's being energized by cooler air from the trough and the higher in latitude you go from the tropics the lower a storm's pressure has to be to maintain winds of the same strength.

And you said the storms core is consolidating again which will allow it to maintain strength or get stronger again so this will be enhanced by baroclinic forces?

[cycloneye]

If a storm the size and strength the models are predicting hits NYC what kind of storm surge would we see 25ft or higher that have to be a category 5 surge at that size and strength? And another question I heard Brian Norcross on the weather channel saying it is possible for the storm to have a sub 940 pressure because the hurricane will get wrapped into the nor easter and then it will begin to regain tropical characteristics? So its basically like a hurricane on steroids? Can someone elaborate a little more on this because It is very interesting.

Look back to my post at 7PM, and here's a little more to clarify. The hurricane won't get "wrapped into the nor'easter" nor will it be able to regain tropical characteristics once it starts losing them. As it starts to move north past Hatteras it would normally weaken due to moving over cooler water (its energy source is warm water). But it will get energized by a strong mid-atmospheric level trough moving southeastward into the eastern U.S. from Canada. This will cause it to go from a barotropic storm (tropical warm-core type) to a baroclinic storm (energy derived from the temperature difference across fronts.) The main reason it will develop such a low pressure is because it will expand to a very large size as it's being energized by cooler air from the trough and the higher in latitude you go from the tropics the lower a storm's pressure has to be to maintain winds of the same strength.

However,look at how warm are the anomalies in the gulfstream.

[CrazyC83]

In the end, this is going to be a cross between 2011's Hurricane Irene and the October 2010 Midwest storm?

[pricetag56]

If a storm the size and strength the models are predicting hits NYC what kind of storm surge would we see 25ft or higher that have to be a category 5 surge at that size and strength? And another question I heard Brian Norcross on the weather channel saying it is possible for the storm to have a sub 940 pressure because the hurricane will get wrapped into the nor easter and then it will begin to regain tropical characteristics? So its basically like a hurricane on steroids? Can someone elaborate a little more on this because It is very interesting.

Look back to my post at 7PM, and here's a little more to clarify. The hurricane won't get "wrapped into the nor'easter" nor will it be able to regain tropical characteristics once it starts losing them. As it starts to move north past Hatteras it would normally weaken due to moving over cooler water (its energy source is warm water). But it will get energized by a strong mid-atmospheric level trough moving southeastward into the eastern U.S. from Canada. This will cause it to go from a barotropic storm (tropical warm-core type) to a baroclinic storm (energy derived from the temperature difference across fronts.) The main reason it will develop such a low pressure is because it will expand to a very large size as it's being energized by cooler air from the trough and the higher in latitude you go from the tropics the lower a storm's pressure has to be to maintain winds of the same strength.

However,look at how warm are the anomalies in the gulfstream.

You have a point there what does the TCHP chart show?

[CrazyC83]

If a storm the size and strength the models are predicting hits NYC what kind of storm surge would we see 25ft or higher that have to be a category 5 surge at that size and strength? And another question I heard Brian Norcross on the weather channel saying it is possible for the storm to have a sub 940 pressure because the hurricane will get wrapped into the nor easter and then it will begin to regain tropical characteristics? So its basically like a hurricane on steroids? Can someone elaborate a little more on this because It is very interesting.

Look back to my post at 7PM, and here's a little more to clarify. The hurricane won't get "wrapped into the nor'easter" nor will it be able to regain tropical characteristics once it starts losing them. As it starts to move north past Hatteras it would normally weaken due to moving over cooler water (its energy source is warm water). But it will get energized by a strong mid-atmospheric level trough moving southeastward into the eastern U.S. from Canada. This will cause it to go from a barotropic storm (tropical warm-core type) to a baroclinic storm (energy derived from the temperature difference across fronts.) The main reason it will develop such a low pressure is because it will expand to a very large size as it's being energized by cooler air from the trough and the higher in latitude you go from the tropics the lower a storm's pressure has to be to maintain winds of the same strength.

However,look at how warm are the anomalies in the gulfstream.

The big anomolies are well out to sea east of 70W near Cape Cod and south of Nova Scotia though, where it is unlikely the storm will go.

[CrazyC83]

What was the gale radius and the outermost closed isobar in the 954mb storm in the Midwest in October 2010? That could help as well in analyzing this.

[ozonepete]

And you said the storms core is consolidating again which will allow it to maintain strength or get stronger again so this will be enhanced by baroclinic forces?

No. The consolidation going on now which should help it maintain or strengthen a little more is only for now. This strengthening is due to tropical conditions: it being over very warm water and still pretty low shear with no appreciable dry air getting into its core. Baroclinic forces are those produced by mid-latitude fronts and upper level cold troughs. That won't come into play until it gets further north, but with ONE exception: Because it is pushing up against a strong high pressure to its north there is a squeezing going on along its northwest and western sides over Florida and that is a baroclinic forcing. That is why winds are rising along the florida peninsula. The most important baroclinic effects will occur after Hatteras as it encounters the upper level trough and gets energized. That is going to be very interesting.

[ozonepete]

Oh ok that makes more sense now I remember other storms that had that happen to them. So what kind of storm surge would a storm that size produce?

Storm surge is really difficult to analyze and I've never done much with it. You should go to the NOAA site which will tell you what to expect: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/ssurge_products.shtml

[ozonepete]

However,look at how warm are the anomalies in the gulfstream.

Luis that is really important. The longer this stays over the GulfStream the more intensity it will hold onto and the worse it will be when it transitions over to a post-tropical storm. Those above-normal SSTs are not a good sign. Thanks for posting that. It will need to be remembered.

[pricetag56]

Oh ok that makes more sense now I remember other storms that had that happen to them. So what kind of storm surge would a storm that size produce?

Storm surge is really difficult to analyze and I've never done much with it. You should go to the NOAA site which will tell you what to expect: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/ssurge_products.shtml

Ok thanks I understand now and ill look on the site you were very helpful.

[Aric Dunn]

its has skowed now alot ...

[AdamFirst]

Sand is piling up on A1A in Fort Lauderdale, by Las Olas Boulevard.

[Bocadude85]

its has skowed now alot ...

I didnt think she was forecast to slow down until tomorrow? How would this change the track if at all?