ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

If this becomes a subtropical cyclone without major weakening, what would the NHC classify it as?

I wonder if there has been a subtropical storm with hurricane force wind.

[Evil Jeremy]

Before this season, I think there was only one recorded time when a Tropical system became Subtropical and not vice versa. It might happen twice this year. Incredible.

[johngaltfla]

Folks, God forbid it hits with hurricane force winds plus, but what we are witnessing is without a doubt of potentially a historic nature. Meteorologists will talk about this storm for years if the models verify and it will provide a great study for the future as the seasons fluctuate in intensity and actual CONUS landfalls. One thing is for certain; if people on the Atlantic Seaboard do not have a plan of action ready and initiated now, I fear they are in for a rude surprise next week. In all my years of living through and following these storms, I can not remember ever a time where one day a storm could wipe the power out with hurricane force winds and polar cold follows a day or so later, possibly with now.

Thank you again to all the pro mets on this board for their input.

[superstareporter]

All wind is pressure gradient, every one of them is a result from that. Plus, someone also said the Bahamas were as far from them as Atlanta was down there in So. Fla...maybe the furthest islands, but that statement is so far off as well. We have really got some winners on the board now!! Come on guys, FACTS FACTS FACTS please!

Dumb forecaster (sorry, pro mets) for that Halloween comment in his discussion - you can bet he'll get an e-mail from his supervisor, because as I learned when working for the NWS, that product is disseminated worldwide over the Internet and various weather and aviation and marine circuits and some countries aren't into that nonsense the way we are in the US and might not understand what he's talking about...

Frank

P.S. I had to laugh about that Tamiami Airport "loss of power" comment - that area always loses power, even in a thundershower (lol) - here in Fort Lauderdale it's breezy and the sky overcast - Sandy is 500 miles to our east, folks, so any wind here is just pressure gradient wind, as others mentioned earlier...

[SootyTern]

homestead just had a gust to 52 kts.

Where was that measured? I've been following Homestead Air Reserve Base (near my house) and the peak gusts there have only been around 30 mph.

[gatorcane]

Heavy line of showers and squalls located along an WSW to ENE line starting to punch into Miami-Dade and eventually Broward and and Southern Palm Beach Counties...the lines have been falling apart some as they approach the coast but that line is moving very quicky so T.S gusts could be in those squalls as they move ashore:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[galaxy401]

If this becomes a subtropical cyclone without major weakening, what would the NHC classify it as?

I wonder if there has been a subtropical storm with hurricane force wind.

I thought I remember seeing a storm back in the earlier 1900s that was subtropical but had hurricane force winds. I think they keep it as "Subtropical storm."

[hurricanedude]

remember a hurricane is a storm...so Subtropical storm wording isnt incorrect at all

[Macrocane]

Well subtropical Hurricane would be cool (to name not to experience)

[Frank2]

Heavy line of showers and squalls located along an WSW to ENE line starting to punch into Miami-Dade and eventually Broward and and Southern Palm Beach Counties...the lines have been falling apart some as they approach the coast but that line is moving very quicky so T.S gusts could be in those squalls as they move ashore:

Some have been drying out as they move inland, but we did get a soaking before sunrise in Cooper City and I'm sure we'll get soaked again - MIA will probably break the old annual record of 90" with this system - that's getting close to 8 feet of rain, folks...

P.S. When I refered to pressure gradient wind, that means (in my mind) that the wind we are experiencing is not directly from Sandy, but just the pressure difference between the high to the northeast and Sandy to the east, and, the "Out Islands" of the Bahamas are as far from Miami as we are from Atlanta (700 miles), so there (lol)...

[jaxfladude]

here it is again for you folks up in Long Island and NYC...

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/826/nycsurge.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

That map will be completely useless for this storm (and for most storms), as one should never associated surge height with SS category. Even though this could have some hurricane force winds at landfall, this will produce a surge far in excess of that that graphic would indicate. This may be the worst-case scenario in terms of angle of impact and size of wind field. It is the wind field size, NOT the Saffir-Simpson category that determines surge height, and Sandy will be absolutely huge.

Another thing. I can't understand why the NHC continues to indicate sub-hurricane force winds at landfall. For days they didn't forecast Sandy to be a hurricane north of Cuba.

Rarely seen you this concerned....

[Hurricaneman]

Well subtropical Hurricane would be cool (to name not to experience)

There is no such creature as a subtropical hurricane, it would be a subtropical storm only with hurricane force winds

[artist]

Heavy line of showers and squalls located along an WSW to ENE line starting to punch into Miami-Dade and eventually Broward and and Southern Palm Beach Counties...the lines have been falling apart some as they approach the coast but that line is moving very quicky so T.S gusts could be in those squalls as they move ashore:

Some have been drying out as they move inland, but we did get a soaking before sunrise in Cooper City and I'm sure we'll get soaked again - MIA will probably break the old annual record of 90" with this system - that's getting close to 8 feet of rain, folks...

P.S. When I refered to pressure gradient wind, that means (in my mind) that the wind we are experiencing is not directly from Sandy, but just the pressure difference between the high to the northeast and Sandy to the east...

this is from Max Mayfield's blog yesterday afternoon-

Based on the current forecast, sustained tropical storm force winds (39 mph or greater) are likely somewhere in the warning area with the highest probability in Palm Beach County. And we could easily see gusts to 50 or 60 mph, most likely from late Thursday afternoon through Friday.

Regardless of precisely how high the winds get, we are in for a prolonged period of strong winds. these winds will likely be enough to produce some major beach erosion and possibly minor coastal flooding during high tides.

[Airboy]

How high is the risk that the airports in the NY area will be closed down around Tuesday?

[sicktght311]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

Looks like shes right on track with NHC's prediction. Maybe a hair east

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY NEAR CAT ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...WIND FIELD EXPANDING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 75.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

[artist]

possibly having satellite problems again? Anyone else seeing that? ghcc, definitely having problems.

[cycloneye]

From 5 PM discussion.

THERE REMAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS INTERACTION...AS THE ECMWF HAS
SANDY FARTHER WEST AND INTERACTING WITH THE SHORTWAVE SOONER
RELATIVE TO MOST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOWS A WIDER
TURN AND A TRACK FARTHER NORTH. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY...IT IS
LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[artist]

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW LARGER IN SIZE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CAT ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...96 KM/H.

[ROCK]

here it is again for you folks up in Long Island and NYC...

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/826/nycsurge.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

That map will be completely useless for this storm (and for most storms), as one should never associated surge height with SS category. Even though this could have some hurricane force winds at landfall, this will produce a surge far in excess of that that graphic would indicate. This may be the worst-case scenario in terms of angle of impact and size of wind field. It is the wind field size, NOT the Saffir-Simpson category that determines surge height, and Sandy will be absolutely huge.

Another thing. I can't understand why the NHC continues to indicate sub-hurricane force winds at landfall. For days they didn't forecast Sandy to be a hurricane north of Cuba.

Rarely seen you this concerned....

WXMN57 I know this as I was on Galveston the day before IKE moved ashore!! What I was trying to point out is that even though this is going to be a hurricane the windfield will be so huge that one could compare it to a storm with a cat3 surge...if the angle is correct.

so saying this is useless when it is a product of the NHC is not correct.....