ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Live loop, speed this up: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

I think the vortex looking artifacts seen in the closer view are just shear blowing tops off and appearing to rotate.

[jlauderdal]

Dumb forecaster (sorry, pro mets) for that Halloween comment in his discussion - you can bet he'll get an e-mail from his supervisor, because as I learned when working for the NWS, that product is disseminated worldwide over the Internet and various weather and aviation and marine circuits and some countries aren't into that nonsense the way we are in the US and might not understand what he's talking about...

Frank

P.S. I had to laugh about that Tamiami Airport "loss of power" comment - that area always loses power, even in a thundershower (lol) - here in Fort Lauderdale it's breezy and the sky overcast - Sandy is 500 miles to our east, folks, so any wind here is just pressure gradient wind, as others mentioned earlier...

Frank has Sandy 500 miles to our east, bastardi has sandy coming within 100 miles of the florida coast...this equation isnt working

[gatorcane]

The system is a whole is really starting to "flatten" out, looks like that is due to a combination of the ridge building to the north and also more E to W upper-level flow over the Central/Northern Bahamas caused by a ULL to it's SW.

That said, eye appears to be heading due north and will past east of the forecast point assuming no west wobbles.

You got to think it is going to slow down very soon and turn more noticeably NNW or NW given the flatting appearance.

Meanwhile convection and squalls continue to build well west of the center. It's not your usual "dry on the west side" systems by any means.

NWS Miami callilng for 50% POPs this afternoon and evening for metro South Florida but I would go to 100% given what is lurking offshoure and racing west.

[crimi481]

Live loop, speed this up: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

I think the vortex looking artifacts seen in the closer view are just shear blowing tops off and appearing to rotate.

You may be correct - but not sure. Whole system now elongated (East/West) - due to the Ridge to its north
Its possible new Low center forming more West -under ABACO ? Or - I am getting looped out?

Not official NHC forecast

[Bocadude85]

The system is a whole is really starting to "flatten" out, looks like that is due to a combination of the ridge building to the north and also more E to W upper-level flow over the Central/Northern Bahamas caused by a ULL to it's SW.

That said, eye appears to be heading due north and will past east of the forecast point assuming no west wobbles.

You got to think it is going to slow down very soon and turn more noticeably NNW or NW given the flatting appearance.

Meanwhile convection and squalls continue to build well west of the center. It's not your usual "dry on the west side" systems by any means.

NWS Miami callilng for 50% POPs this afternoon and evening for metro South Florida but I would go to 100% given what is lurking offshoure and racing west.

Yea I noticed she was a little east of the next forecast point. I have a hard time buying into the models showing TS force winds in SE Florida when Sandy continues to track east of the forecast track. That being said I will say the winds have really picked up here this afternoon.

[x-y-no]

Frank has Sandy 500 miles to our east, bastardi has sandy coming within 100 miles of the florida coast...this equation isnt working

Frank is talking about now, Bastardi is talking about a day and a half from now.

FWIW, I don't particularly buy the system getting as far west as the euro takes it.

[jlauderdal]

rotation in dade

[Frank2]

Sometimes we forget that the outer Bahama Islands are as far from Miami as we are from Atlanta, so that's a long way from here...

Besides, JB is in PA raking the maple leaves - we live here and worry about palm fronds putting dents in our cars (lol)...

Just looking at the VIS, the system appears to have less convective tops and more mid-level cumulus, just my thinking but does appears to be a much different system that during the Cuban landfall - perhaps as some have said it's beginning to make a transition...

[HURRICANELONNY]

Some forecaster is calling Sandy "Frankenstorm". I guess because it is prog to make landfall around Halloween.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Hurricane Sandy





Hurricane Warning
The Bahamas

Tropical Storm Warning
Northern Turcks and Caicos Islands
Florida From Kendall to Flager Beach

Tropical Storm Watch
Florida From Flager Beach to Fernandia Beach, From Big Pine Key to Kendall

[ROCK]

here it is again for you folks up in Long Island and NYC...



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[WYNweather]

Buoy Data

Station MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 35 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 42 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.59 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.11 in ( Falling Rapidly

Station FWYF1 - Fowey Rock, FL
Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 39 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 44 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.65 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.09 in ( Falling )

[wxman57]

here it is again for you folks up in Long Island and NYC...

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/826/nycsurge.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

That map will be completely useless for this storm (and for most storms), as one should never associated surge height with SS category. Even though this could have some hurricane force winds at landfall, this will produce a surge far in excess of that that graphic would indicate. This may be the worst-case scenario in terms of angle of impact and size of wind field. It is the wind field size, NOT the Saffir-Simpson category that determines surge height, and Sandy will be absolutely huge.

Another thing. I can't understand why the NHC continues to indicate sub-hurricane force winds at landfall. For days they didn't forecast Sandy to be a hurricane north of Cuba.

[jlauderdal]

Sometimes we forget that the outer Bahama Islands are as far from Miami as we are from Atlanta, so that's a long way from here...

Besides, JB is in PA raking the maple leaves - we live here and worry about palm fronds putting dents in our cars (lol)...

Just looking at the VIS, the system appears to have less convective tops and more mid-level cumulus, just my thinking but does appears to be a much different system that during the Cuban landfall - perhaps as some have said it's beginning to make a transition...

joe definitely has an east coast bias...system was really cranking last night, different system today for sure

[Frank2]

Per the above C-MAN obs, we have to remember that the wind measuring equipment for the C-MAN stations are many feet above the water (they need to be in the event of high seas that might cause a false wind measurement), so you have to subtract a certain percentage when it comes to what the wind speed is at the surface...

P.S. Looking at the VIS loop, you can see that all of the weather is to the NW, N and NE of the center - sure, there's still the doughnut of convection around the center - but nothing to the S or SW beyond that, so a transition sign for sure...

[wxman57]

Anemometer height of the CMAN station MRLF1 is 15.5m above the water, or about 18ft above standard height. Shouldn't be too much difference between that and the 10m standard wind measurement height over the water (maybe 1kt or so).

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=mlrf1

[Aric Dunn]

homestead just had a gust to 52 kts.

[CrazyC83]

If this becomes a subtropical cyclone without major weakening, what would the NHC classify it as?

[x-y-no]

homestead just had a gust to 52 kts.

Yeah - Fowey Rock has been climbing all day - currently 39 knots sustained with gusts to 44 (at 44 meters elevation) - 10-meter speed 35 knots.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=fwyf1

[cycloneye]

Afternoon HPC discussion.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
313 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

VALID 12Z SUN OCT 28 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012


...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...


FINAL...

UPDATED THE TRACK OF SANDY TO FIT THE 15Z/25 NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER TRACK THROUGH 5 DAY, WHICH DOVETAILS WELL INTO THE HYBRID
LOW POSITIONS THEREAFTER FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. BOTH THE 12Z/25 GFS AND
GEM GLOBAL BRING THE LOW INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA, WITH THE
ECMWF DIRECTING IT INTO THE LOWER DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE UPSHOT
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THE SAME- HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS FOR
AREAS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL REMNANT, WITH HEAVY SNOWS
POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE WHERE THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR
RUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
ADJACENT LOWLANDS TO THE EAST.


CISCO