ATL: SANDY - Models

[HurrMark]

Looks like it does do a double back, but landfall is maritime Canada. There is some Fujiwara with a couple of small lows in the interior Northeast.

[weatherwindow]

I rarely comment on stupidity...but given the potential disaster facing the Northeast, I feel compelled....the on camera talking head makes this statement...."after paralleling the Mid Atlantic coast, Sandy may turn back toward the Northeast, but by that time, it will only be a WEAK DEPRESSION".....ugggh

[JamesCaneTracker]

I rarely comment on stupidity...but given the potential disaster facing the Northeast, I feel compelled....the on camera talking head makes this statement...."after paralleling the Mid Atlantic coast, Sandy may turn back toward the Northeast, but by that time, it will only be a WEAK DEPRESSION".....ugggh

Nothing in these Forecast models indicate it will be weak Depression... It MAY not be full tropical any more but it still has the potential to be just as Destructive as a Fully Tropical Hurricane. Maybe even more so giving the location it could be impacting!

[Blown Away]

Our RPM model, from WSI, has Sandy just offshore really lashing the coast.

How far off compared to the forecast track? Can you post a graphic?

[deltadog03]

Our RPM model, from WSI, has Sandy just offshore really lashing the coast.

How far off compared to the forecast track? Can you post a graphic?

I wish I could, but not sure if I am allowed too. I will say the new run is a bit further off the coast, but that first run I had seen today was like a EURO type track.

[Hurricane Alexis]

The first 36 hours of the 18z GFS don't concur with the NHC track.

[HurrMark]

The first 36 hours of the 18z GFS don't concur with the NHC track.

I would take the 18Z with a grain of salt as it is intermediate...we will see what the 00Z says and if a trend eastward perhaps may be starting.

[Steve H.]

so the 18z gfs is now east of the 12z?

[HurrMark]

so the 18z gfs is now east of the 12z?

Yeah...the GFS at least is...it misses the connection with the trough...it eventually doubles back to the west but far to the northeast by that point, and it is a typical wintertime low for the Canadian Maritimes at that point.

[SFLcane]

pretty substantial shift i'd say with some of the 00z models.

[stephen23]

pretty substantial shift i'd say with some of the 00z models. if this pans out or continues strong TS winds could stay over the water and away from florida.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_18

Sflcane, What 00z models have already come out, and where can I find the 00z models?

[deltadog03]

I think the 00z tropical models (GFS based ones) generate somewhat from the 18z GFS op run...I think* and honestly, I wouldn't even put any weight into the tropical models right now. yes to the GFDL and HWRF, but the others...meh

[Dean4Storms]

The BAM models would really be out of their realm here dealing with the westerlies.

[stephen23]

Ok. Sounds good. Is it true the 18z gfs contains no new data and that only the 00z and 12z contain new data?

[DESTRUCTION5]

^^ Nothing changed here really.All the "real" models still meet near Long Island Bahamas in 48-54 hrs...right on target..

[Bocadude85]

^^ Nothing changed here really.All the "real" models still meet near Long Island Bahamas in 48-54 hrs...right on target..

Yup and then they all turn NNW in the general direction of Great Abaco/Grand Bahama

[HurricaneFrances04]

FWIW (probably not much) the 0Z Nam takes Sandy awfully close to Miami. Pretty much right offshore Key Largo/Homestead at 36 hrs.

[SootyTern]

FWIW (probably not much) the 0Z Nam takes Sandy awfully close to Miami. Pretty much right offshore Key Largo/Homestead at 36 hrs.

Oh, hooray! But it's just the NAM

[cycloneye]

Thursday will be a very important day in the models world. This from Dr Jeff Masters.

An extra set of balloon-borne radiosondes is going to be launched at 2 pm EDT on Thursday all across the U.S., which should help tomorrow evening's model runs make better forecasts of where Sandy might go. Extra radiosondes will be launched every 6 hours through Saturday afternoon.

[deltadog03]

LOL...the NAM drives this WEST towards Miami from hour 30-36...