WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hey guys, I put a video together again this evening on the storm, let me know your thoughts if you have any.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZ5nxSEoSXE&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

[mrbagyo]

Watching Bopha closely and will be interesting to see if ECM swings back south. GFS persistently recurving Bopha at the moment. Anyone know any historical typhoons hitting Palau?

EDIT: Looking on Digital Typhoon database I can't see any major storms impacting Palau since 1951, a few TSs and STSs but no strong typhoons.

I think Super Typhoon Mike gets the honor of being the most destructive typhoon in Palau. http://archive.greenpeace.org/climate/database/records/zgpz0676.html

and here is the Image of Mike while just north of Palau islands
http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/globe/color/1990/2048x2048/GMS490111013.globe.1.jpg

typhoons tend to be small when at low latitude.

[cycloneye]

Hi James. Are you going to chase Bopha? And the other question is if you go where it may be?

[cycloneye]

Hey guys, I put a video together again this evening on the storm, let me know your thoughts if you have any.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZ5nxSEo ... r_embedded

Hi Rob. Good video as always. My question is if Bopha continues to move slowly,that would give time for the STR to move east or weaken allowing a recurving motion?

[ManilaTC]

Hey guys, I put a video together again this evening on the storm, let me know your thoughts if you have any.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZ5nxSEo ... r_embedded

Hi Rob. Good video as always. My question is if Bopha continues to move slowly,that would give time for the STR to move east or weaken allowing a recurving motion?

Im not a pro met, but knowing the region's synoptic regime during the fall months would give the answer away.
The STR during the fall months going into winter have the STR to become more zonal, centered across the Philippine sea.
Storms forming during these months tend to track more on a straight line motion under the STR.

[supercane4867]

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
3:00 AM JST November 28 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Marshall Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Bopha (998 hPa) located at 4.4N 155.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 4.7N 152.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Chuuk region
48 HRS: 5.1N 149.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island
72 HRS: 5.6N 144.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island

[ManilaTC]

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
3:00 AM JST November 28 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Marshall Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Bopha (998 hPa) located at 4.4N 155.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 4.7N 152.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Chuuk region
48 HRS: 5.1N 149.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island
72 HRS: 5.6N 144.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island

Hi supercane, can you provide a link for this kind of summary? thanks

[cycloneye]

JTWC remains at 45kts at 2100z warning. The peak intensity on day 5 is 100kts.

WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 4.7N 155.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.7N 155.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 5.0N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 5.3N 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 5.6N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 5.9N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 6.3N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 7.0N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 8.5N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 4.8N 154.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//

Prognostic Reasoning

WDPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE DEEP CENTRALLY LOCATED CONVECTION PERSISTS
IN FLARING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT EXPANSION OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). EIR SHOWS THE BROKEN FORMATIVE
BANDING FEATURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM HAVE YET TO
BUILD TOWARDS THE CENTRALIZED CONVECTION. A 271313Z OSCAT PASS
INDICATES WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CENTER RANGE
FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH THE SYSTEMS PRESENT INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE LLCC
PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT INCREASE IN POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AS A MIGRATORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD,
AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING FOR GREATER VENTING ALONG THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. TS 26W HAS SEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT REMAINS LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SPEED AND GENERALLY TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VWS, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS ALONG TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. INTENSITY WILL
STEADILY INCREASE TO 100 KNOTS BY TAU 120 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
PERSISTENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, BUT BEGINS TO FAN OUT THROUGH TAU 120.
GFDN AND EGRR REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY WESTWARD, WITH NGPS AND GFS
TRACKING THE SYSTEM BETWEEN PALAU AND YAP, AND ECMF REMAINS THE
NORTHERN OUTLIER WITH A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF YAP. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE NGPS/GFS SOLUTION, BUT STAYS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE EARLIER TAUS DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW BASED ON
THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.//
NNNN

[supercane4867]

Hi supercane, can you provide a link for this kind of summary? thanks

Sorry I don't know where it come from originally, I just copied from other site

[supercane4867]

Bohpa is one of the only 13 storms that formed south of 5°N and the closest to equator since Vamei of 2002

Here's a list of them
http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/cgi-bin/dt/se ... &basin=wnp

[supercane4867]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 NOV 2012 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 4:47:54 N Lon : 154:54:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 992.4mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 4.0 4.0

Center Temp : -82.4C Cloud Region Temp : -82.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Watch issued for Yap.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
800 AM CHST WED NOV 28 2012

...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK LAGOON ISLANDS AND PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.9 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF NUKUORO
85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
205 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
270 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT AND
565 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL.

TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS DRIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH
NEARLY STATIONARY BUT IS EXPECTED RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION LATER
TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...4.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 154.9
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 50 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM CHST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

WILLIAMS

[Grifforzer]

supercane4867

ya that advisory you posted is custom but it uses the actual Japan Meteorological Agency information with a little difference.

Tropical Storm
Severe Tropical Storm
Strong Typhoon
Very Strong Typhoon
Furious Typhoon

I put into categories types of typhoons that JMA doesn't really state as "CATEGORY 1-5" in their advisories.

[supercane4867]

supercane4867

ya that advisory you posted is custom but it uses the actual Japan Meteorological Agency information with a little difference.

Tropical Storm
Severe Tropical Storm
Strong Typhoon
Very Strong Typhoon
Furious Typhoon

I put into categories types of typhoons that JMA doesn't really state as "CATEGORY 1-5" in their advisories.

Thank you for mentioning that

[cycloneye]

JMA 00:40 UTC warning:

TS 1224 (BOPHA)
Issued at 00:40 UTC, 28 November 2012
<Analyses at 28/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N4°40'(4.7°)
E154°30'(154.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 29/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N4°55'(4.9°)
E151°10'(151.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N5°20'(5.3°)
E147°20'(147.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N6°05'(6.1°)
E143°00'(143.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

[cycloneye]

JTWC up to 50kts: Now the peak intensity is up to 110kts.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 4.7N 154.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.7N 154.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 4.9N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 5.0N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 5.1N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 5.3N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 6.2N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 7.8N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 9.6N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 4.8N 154.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

Thanks for the information on historical typhoons affecting Palau. Cycloneye, a little too early to know where Bopha's going but I'm keeping a close eye on it.

[euro6208]

goodness...the intensity forecast keeps going up...palau and yap is in trouble...it does look like strengthening has stopped which is good news but bad news for the philippines as the longer it stays weak the more likely it is to move close to that area.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 280318
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
200 PM CHST WED NOV 28 2012

...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) PASSING SOUTH OF LUKUNOR...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NUKUORO HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LUKUNOR IN CHUUK
STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK
LAGOON ISLANDS AND PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE AND FOR SATAWAL IN YAP
STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 1 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.0 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 90 MILES NORTHWEST OF NUKUORO
55 MILES SOUTH OF LUKUNOR
170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
235 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
375 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT AND
505 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL.

TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND MAY BECOME A
TYPHOON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP
TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...4.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 154.0
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 60 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 PM CHST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
8 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[supercane4867]

Bopha is strengthening in a slower pace than I expected, waters ahead are warm and he will take his time


No signs of an eyewall forming yet