WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm

#141 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Nov 27, 2012 11:04 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES
FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AND A 272121Z SSMIS PASS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
ASSESSMENTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, AND A RECENT CONSENSUS OF
AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER
THE CENTER OF AN INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE LLCC, PROVIDING STRONG POLEWARD AND
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. TS 26W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD AND FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE AND A
RECENT INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING
STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
B. TS 26W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE. SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED AS VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER A WARM SEA SURFACE
OFFSET A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THAT TIME.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY
POLEWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE SLIGHTLY. DURING THIS PERIOD,
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY MORE
RAPIDLY. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
TRACK DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
TRACK FORECAST IS NOW HIGH.//
NNNN
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#142 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed Nov 28, 2012 2:28 am

Latest ECMWF run is ominous, 00z is going for the southern option again lashing Palau before crashing into the eastern Philippines and recurving up the east coast. :eek:
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm

#143 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Nov 28, 2012 3:05 am

Clark hit the nail on the head there with the general pattern this time of year. Given Climo at the very least this should continue to be a straight runner. The West Pac high being the dominate force in the game. Even if it does recede a little I still think at this point we can be quite confident it will push somewhere over PH.
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm

#144 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Nov 28, 2012 3:41 am

James, if this ends up in Visayas, will you chase the storm there? I know you've been to North Luzon a lot of times, but I haven't heard you visiting the southern islands of the Philippines to chase typhoons.
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm

#145 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Nov 28, 2012 3:52 am

RobWESTPACWX wrote:Clark hit the nail on the head there with the general pattern this time of year. Given Climo at the very least this should continue to be a straight runner. The West Pac high being the dominate force in the game. Even if it does recede a little I still think at this point we can be quite confident it will push somewhere over PH.



I agree. If it were to recurve, I think it will be somewhere in the westernmost extent of the STR...and if it were to recurve in the Philippine Sea, there should be a really strong frontal system or trough to break the STR that much. I saw the streamline analysis graphic and I can say the west pacific high is still dominating and intact. Nature does her own thing though, so what do I know? :lol:
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm

#146 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Nov 28, 2012 5:33 am

JMA now has Bopha at Typhoon intensity Saturday. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/12245.html
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#147 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Nov 28, 2012 5:33 am

And if your interested in who is under TS watch and warnings, here you go. Feels odd to have a storm so far out in the ocean but a laundry list of islands under watches. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/GUM/TCPPQ1
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Re:

#148 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 28, 2012 5:54 am

RobWESTPACWX wrote:And if your interested in who is under TS watch and warnings, here you go. Feels odd to have a storm so far out in the ocean but a laundry list of islands under watches. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/GUM/TCPPQ1


Typhoon watch issued for Yap. Thank you and Clark for the answer to the question about STR. Moving faster now.
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm

#149 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Nov 28, 2012 6:35 am

yes, its moving faster now in response to the southern periphery of the strong Subtropical Ridge. Very Strong convection is also evident in rainbow color... notice that Blacks and Whites

Image
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm

#150 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Nov 28, 2012 7:58 am

GFS is starting to throw us through a loop again, pulling the storm on a sharp turn North right before impacting the PI. Time will still tell on this one. http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm

#151 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 28, 2012 8:25 am

Image

just for entertainment purposes but 175 knot forecast? it would be shocking if this comes true...
Last edited by euro6208 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 8:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm

#152 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 28, 2012 8:26 am

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 281255
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
1100 PM CHST WED NOV 28 2012

...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) CONTINUES WESTWARD TOWARD YAP STATE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LUKUNOR AND THE
SOUTHERN MORTLOCKS IN CHUUK STATE...PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE AND
SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

AT 10 PM CHST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.1 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 135 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LUKUNOR
175 MILES SOUTH OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
255 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT
380 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL
575 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP AND
585 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI.

TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND MAY BECOME
A TYPHOON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION...5.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 152.1
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM CHST.

$$

STANKO



000
WTPQ81 PGUM 281056
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST WED NOV 28 2012

...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) ACCELERATING TOWARD YAP STATE...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE IN LUKUNOR AND SURROUNDING ATOLLS...LOSAP...THE CHUUK LAGOON
ISLANDS AND PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE...AND FOR SATAWAL...FARAULEP AND
WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR LOSAP AND THE CHUUK
LAGOON ISLANDS IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE
AND FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.

A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LUKUNOR AND THE
SOUTHERN MORTLOCKS IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.5 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 110 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LUKUNOR
175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT
405 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL
600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP AND
615 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI.

TROPICAL STORM BOPHA HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH AND IS
MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH.


.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS MOVING STEADILY WEST...AND THE CENTER PASSED
55 MILES SOUTH OF LUKUNOR AT AROUND 1 PM CHST. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AT LUKUNOR OVERNIGHT. BOPHA WILL THEN THREATEN
ISLANDS FARTHER WEST SUCH AS PULUWAT AND SATAWAL.

...LUKUNOR AND NEARBY ISLANDS...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED. REMAIN IN SHELTER THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. KEEP INFORMED ON THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM CHUUK EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH THIS EVENING
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHE AND SUBSIDE FURTHER TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AS BOPHA MOVES AWAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS GENERATING 10 TO 12 FOOT SWELL NEAR THE
CENTER WHICH WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURF OF 12 TO 14 FEET ALONG
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN SHORES. INUNDATION OF UP TO 1
FOOT IS STILL POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE ON THURSDAY MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

...LOSAP AND CHUUK LAGOON ISLANDS...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM THE CHUUK EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. AVOID
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL THE SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED WITHIN THE VICINITY OF LOSAP
AND THE CHUUK LAGOON ISLANDS. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT TO EAST
BY MIDNIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
WAVES GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 13 FEET ALONG EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN SHORES. INUNDATION OF UP TO 1 FOOT COULD OCCUR AT HIGH
TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
MUDSLIDES ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THE HIGH ISLANDS OF CHUUK LAGOON.

...PULUWAT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN
PORT. AVOID INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL THE SEAS SUBSIDE TO NORMAL
LEVELS. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM THE CHUUK
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. SET
ASIDE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS. SEEK A SUITABLE SHELTER
WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND STRONG WINDS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN SHOWERS THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND INCREASE FURTHER TO 30 TO 40 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SUBSIDE FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AT
PULUSUK...AND COULD BE STRONGER FOR ALL LOCATIONS IF BOPHA MOVES A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET MAY ALSO
OCCUR AROUND HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

...SATAWAL AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN
PORT. AVOID INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL THE SEAS SUBSIDE TO NORMAL
LEVELS. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM THE YAP EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. SET ASIDE ENOUGH
FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS. SEEK A SUITABLE SHELTER WHICH WILL BE
ABLE TO WITHSTAND STRONG WINDS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN SHOWERS AND TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE EAST AND INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS COULD BE STRONGER IF BOPHA
TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...WOLEAI AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST
BULLETINS FROM THE YAP EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. PRACTICE YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN AND IDENTIFY A
SHELTER WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND STRONG WINDS IN CASE A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN SHOWERS. LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST AND INCREASE TO 40
TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE WINDS
REMAIN NEAR THESE LEVELS WHILE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY. WINDS COULD BE STRONGER...EVEN
TYPHOON FORCE...IF BOPHA MOVES A LITTLE NORTH OF ITS CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET MAY ALSO
OCCUR AROUND HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...FARAULEP...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST
BULLETINS FROM THE YAP EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. PRACTICE YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN AND IDENTIFY A
SHELTER WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND STRONG WINDS IN CASE A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN SHOWERS. THESE
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE DIRECTION SHIFTING TO
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BE STRONGER IF
BOPHA MOVES A LITTLE NORTH OF ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.


...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET MAY ALSO
OCCUR AROUND HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM BOPHA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 300 AM CHST THURSDAY MORNING...OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY.

$$

STANKO
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#153 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Nov 28, 2012 9:00 am

ADT says Bohpa has not strengthened


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 NOV 2012 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 5:02:09 N Lon : 151:50:27 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 994.6mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.7 3.7

Center Temp : -74.9C Cloud Region Temp : -76.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm

#154 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 28, 2012 9:41 am

Image

now at 55 knots...on the verge of becoming our 16th typhoon of the season...

WTPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 5.0N 152.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.0N 152.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 5.0N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 5.1N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 5.5N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 5.9N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 7.0N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 8.5N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 10.4N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 5.0N 151.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH OF
CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.
//
NNNN


Latest Prognostic Reasoning...


WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH OF
CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281008Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT OBSERVATIONS IN CHUUK REPORTING
EASTERLY WINDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE LLCC,
PROVIDING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS
26W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY
POLEWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. STEADY
INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE
SPREAD IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. GFDN REMAINS
THE RIGHT MOST OUTLIER WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED POLEWARD TRACK. NOGAPS
IS THE LEFT MOST OUTLIER TAKING A FASTER TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE
GROUPING. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE
BECOME SPREAD, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm

#155 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 28, 2012 11:13 am

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 281547
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
200 AM CHST THU NOV 29 2012

...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) INTENSIFYING AND MOVING WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LUKUNOR AND THE
SOUTHERN MORTLOCKS IN CHUUK STATE...PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE AND
SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

AT 1 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.6 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 170 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LUKUNOR
175 MILES SOUTH OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT
350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL
545 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP AND
555 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI.

TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON
LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65
MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...5.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 151.6
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 8 AM CHST.

$$

STANKO
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm

#156 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 28, 2012 11:14 am

TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LUKUNOR AND THE
SOUTHERN MORTLOCKS IN CHUUK STATE...PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE AND
SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.

TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm

#157 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 28, 2012 11:45 am

although this is something we see almost every year, i must say WOW! with christmas coming, it's hard to believe that a powerful typhoon will affect the lives of many people especially the islands in western micronesia and the philippines...TO EVERYONE OUT THERE, PLEASE KNOW YOU ARE IN OUR THOUGHTS AND PRAYERS AND WE ARE THINKING ABOUT YOU! PLEASE BE SAFE...
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm

#158 Postby ManilaTC » Wed Nov 28, 2012 11:56 am

euro6208 wrote:although this is something we see almost every year, i must say WOW! with christmas coming, it's hard to believe that a powerful typhoon will affect the lives of many people especially the islands in western micronesia and the philippines...TO EVERYONE OUT THERE, PLEASE KNOW YOU ARE IN OUR THOUGHTS AND PRAYERS AND WE ARE THINKING ABOUT YOU! PLEASE BE SAFE...


We deeply appreciate it! Keep us in your prayers :)
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm

#159 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Nov 28, 2012 12:10 pm

the southwestern dip of Bopha just shows how dominating the west pacific high is. and yea i think it has gained a lot of speed...
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm

#160 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Nov 28, 2012 2:14 pm

Uhmm....

Image

They must have positioned the center wrong or Bopha is not vertically aligned
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