WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1321 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 09, 2013 1:34 pm

18z Best Track down to 90kts.

31W HAIYAN 131109 1800 15.5N 111.4E WPAC 90 956

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#1322 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 1:45 pm

Notice it turning more to the NW. That is BAD news for the heavily populated Ha-Noi region. It's a flat river delta with millions of people there.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1323 Postby terstorm1012 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 2:28 pm

Dr. Masters has posted an update with confirmation that Tacloban did indeed see Cat-5 conditions.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2575
Last edited by tolakram on Sat Nov 09, 2013 2:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: added url tags
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1324 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 3:00 pm

terstorm1012 wrote:Dr. Masters has posted an update with confirmation that Tacloban did indeed see Cat-5 conditions.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2575



Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history.


historic.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1325 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 09, 2013 3:08 pm

21:00 UTC warning.

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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1326 Postby stormkite » Sat Nov 09, 2013 5:10 pm

euro6208 wrote:
terstorm1012 wrote:Dr. Masters has posted an update with confirmation that Tacloban did indeed see Cat-5 conditions.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2575



Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history.


historic.


Tropical Cyclone Olivia which struck Australia in 1996. The winds were measured at 113 m/s (220 kt, 253 mph)! This exceed the previous record holder for surface wind speeds held by the Mt. Washington Observatory since 1934.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1327 Postby ozonepete » Sat Nov 09, 2013 6:06 pm

stormkite wrote:
euro6208 wrote:
terstorm1012 wrote:Dr. Masters has posted an update with confirmation that Tacloban did indeed see Cat-5 conditions.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2575



Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history.


historic.


Tropical Cyclone Olivia which struck Australia in 1996. The winds were measured at 113 m/s (220 kt, 253 mph)! This exceed the previous record holder for surface wind speeds held by the Mt. Washington Observatory since 1934.


Olivia holds the record for a wind gust - 253 mph - recorded on land. Its top sustained winds were estimated at 145 mph, way below Haiyan's sustained 195 mph. That's quite a difference.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1328 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 6:16 pm

Haiyan is moving more northward than expected, should affect southern portion of Hainan soon

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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1329 Postby ozonepete » Sat Nov 09, 2013 6:29 pm

Unfortunately the eye is staying over water and forecast to continue that way until near Hanoi. This storm just won't quit.
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#1330 Postby Alyono » Sat Nov 09, 2013 6:41 pm

seems we may have 59 dead in a WEST Philippines city

https://twitter.com/TyphoonHaiyan

still no word from Guiuan
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#1331 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 6:43 pm

There has been absolutely nothing from Guiuan, Haiyan's first landfall location. The NDRRMC does not have any evacuations from this listed; it's home to 47,000 people...

It took a direct hit from the eyewall of a 195 mph (+?) tropical cyclone. If tree debarking occurred in Tacloban, I imagine there's not a whole lot left...
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#1332 Postby stormkite » Sat Nov 09, 2013 6:46 pm

Where in the post for record wind speed does it say sustained?
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1333 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 7:15 pm

I was searching for Guiuan on google map. That's a horrible position :eek:

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#1334 Postby ozonepete » Sat Nov 09, 2013 7:19 pm

stormkite wrote:Where in the post for record wind speed does it say sustained?


You didn't say which but I think you're asking about Haiyan. Anyway, here's the wiki post for Olivia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Olivia

And here's Dr. Masters post explaining why sustained winds were thought to be 195 mph near landfall:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/super-typhoon-haiyan-finishes-pounding-the-philippines-headed-for-vie
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1335 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 09, 2013 7:22 pm

supercane4867 wrote:I was searching for Guiuan on google map. That's a horrible position :eek:

Image


Oh boy,look at how this area is in relation to the water.

Image
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1336 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 7:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:I was searching for Guiuan on google map. That's a horrible position :eek:

Image


Oh boy,look at how this area is in relation to the water.

Image


I'd be shocked if there is a single house left standing in that picture. A direct hit with sustained winds of near 200 mph in an onshore flow would likely flatten everything. I fear the death toll could be incredibly high there...
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#1337 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 7:31 pm

If Haiyan makes landfall near Hanoi as a very large Cat 1, the storm surge would be about 10 to 14 feet I would think?
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1338 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 09, 2013 7:42 pm

00z Best Track down to 85kts.

31W HAIYAN 131110 0000 16.3N 110.2E WPAC 85 959
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1339 Postby ozonepete » Sat Nov 09, 2013 7:59 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z Best Track down to 85kts.

31W HAIYAN 131110 0000 16.3N 110.2E WPAC 85 959


That could be generous. CIMSS auto ADT has final CI# at only 3.8, 61 knots. The satellite presentation is not that great anymore on the northwestern quadrant - looks like some drier air and we know the SSTs are cooler there. It also looks to me like the eye may be going even a little further north then forecast in which case it might clip Hainan island. That would further weaken it. It will be close.
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#1340 Postby Alyono » Sat Nov 09, 2013 8:04 pm

85 KT matches satellite data
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