WPAC: INVEST 95W

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95W INVEST 150211 0600 5.5N 151.5E WPAC 15 1010



Here it comes.

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95W INVEST 150211 1800 5.1N 150.7E WPAC 20 1007

TXPQ24 KNES 111506
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 11/1432Z

C. 5.0N

D. 150.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/0919Z 5.1N 150.8E SSMIS


...SALEMI

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TXPQ24 KNES 112139
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 11/2101Z

C. 5.2N

D. 150.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SWIR AND FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES NOT PROVIDE
SIGNIFICANT HELP IN DETERMINING LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL CENTER...OR
EVEN IF ONE EXISTS. MI PASSES SHOW WEAKLY DEFINED ROLL CLOUDS THAT DO
NOT PROVIDE MUCH SUPPORT OF A TIGHT CENTER BUT MORE OF A LARGER BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. CONVECTION ON THE OTHER HAND HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
WITH NEW CONVECTION BURSTING ALONG A .3 BAND ON LOG10 SPIRAL TO REPLACE
THE OLDER WANING CDO/CIRRUS AS SUCH DT IS 1.5. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.5. FT
IS 1.5 BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GALLINA

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Whether or not this develops, it is going to bring clouds and possibly rain to Yap and Palau. There is a ridge of high pressure anchored near 23N which is going to prevent this from tracking too far north of 5N...

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95W INVEST 150212 0000 5.9N 148.9E WPAC 20 1007

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Compared with Higos, this small system has warmer water to deal with. Models are not as bullish though, GFS develops it down the road between Palau and Mindanao. It already looks good with outflow evident...

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Rated LOW from JTWC...

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.9N 148.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW, FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.9N 148.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF
CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED,
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 120352Z
NOAA-19 IMAGE INDICATES WEAK, FRAGMENTED SHALLOW BANDING WITH LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF AN ORGANIZED LLCC. A RECENT PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER IMAGE
SUPPORTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH CONVERGENT NORTHERLY FLOW FUELING
THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CHUUK INDICATE SLP NEAR 1005 MB WITH A
STEADY PRESSURE TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND
BROAD LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 120312
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 12/0232Z

C. 5.1N

D. 149.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.5/W0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY POORLY DEFINED WITH BROAD LOOSELY
DEFINED CU BANDS/FIELDS. MIDLEVEL CIRC IS MUCH BETTER DEFINED NEAR 5.0N
148.2E WELL DISPLACED FROM LLC. CONVECTION HAS ALSO DECREASED IN BANDING
TO AROUND .2 FOR DT OF 1.0. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.0. FT IS 1.0 BASED ON
DT. CI REMAINS UP AT 1.5 PER WEAKENING RULES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/2200Z 5.5N 149.8E SSMIS


...GALLINA

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TXPQ24 KNES 122119
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 12/2032Z

C. 6.3N

D. 149.0E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SWIR AND EIR DO NOT GIVE MUCH SUGGESTION OF A CLOSED
LLC...SUITE OF SCATTEROMETERS- ASCAT AND RAPIDSCAT CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN ELONGATED NW TO SE TILTED TROF NEAR 150E. AT THE APEX OF THE TROF
INCREASED CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PERSISTENT STRONG CONVECTION
THAT BANDS .2 ON LOG10 FOR DT OF 1.0. MET IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND
IS LESS THAN 1.0. PT IS 1.0. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS NO
LONGER CLASSIFIABLE WITH NO LLC HOWEVER...DVORAK RULES STATE NO WEAKENING
IS ALLOW OVERNIGHT IN THE FIRST 48HRS SO FT IS 1.0 BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[euro6208]

95W INVEST 150214 0600 4.1N 143.8E WPAC 15 1006

Shear is ripping this apart...

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Poof...

12Z Best track no longer tracking this...