WPAC: INVEST 96W

[euro6208]

96W INVEST 150517 0600 7.0N 164.9E WPAC 15 1010



East of Kosrae...

[cycloneye]

This is the same system that was 95W but NRL changed to 96W.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6N 161.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, FSM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION
OVER A WEAK AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS IS
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCING THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS DO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH A 172308Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6N
161.6E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.