EPAC: INVEST 91E

[HurricaneTracker2031]

91E is still in the game. It has now a nice bulk of convection and perfect outflow. It sure appears much better organized and at this rate it may develop into a tropical cyclone. It's taking advantage of it move a little back with the convection in the lower shear environment which is helping it to blow up.



Synopsis on 91E and other basins: http://goo.gl/Y9VDn7

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Shear seems low the per the SHIPs for 36-48 hours, so it has a chance. SST's are warm enough, and the systems looks amazing. Never seen a better looking invest.

[Yellow Evan]

Also worth noting the RapidSCAT and ASCAt have both missed the system in the past 24 hours. We need some luck.

[Yellow Evan]

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1600 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is producing
a concentrated area of disorganized thunderstorms well away from
the low's circulation center. Satellite data indicate that the
circulation has become less defined since yesterday, and
environmental conditions are expected to continue to become less
conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912015 05/25/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 6 9 10 11 13 13 11 13 20 24 22 19
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 -1 3 1 2 3 5 3 0 0
SHEAR DIR 190 196 231 246 258 247 253 232 243 251 261 256 260
SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.4
POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 134 134 134 136 139 136 130 127 125 126
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5
700-500 MB RH 57 58 55 53 50 46 45 47 50 50 49 46 42
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 3 3 2 2
850 MB ENV VOR -5 -10 -15 -17 -17 -9 -5 2 11 8 7 12 9
200 MB DIV 49 56 48 36 26 9 24 5 0 -19 -8 -6 -16
700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -6 -6 -4 -3
LAND (KM) 2435 2430 2425 2448 2471 2400 2257 2083 1882 1699 1533 1402 1301
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.7 12.6 12.3
LONG(DEG W) 131.5 131.7 131.8 132.1 132.4 133.5 135.0 136.8 138.8 140.6 142.3 143.8 145.2
STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 4 6 8 9 9 9 8 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 18 15 13 13 13 11 16 21 11 6 1 5 5

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -24. -25. -26.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -23. -27. -30. -35. -39. -42. -42.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 05/25/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Kingarabian]

Shear is now evident like it was at this time, yesterday.

I guess it was just tough to classify due to lack of SCAT passes or even ship obs.

[Yellow Evan]

Shear is now evident like it was at this time, yesterday.

I guess it was just tough to classify due to lack of SCAT passes or even ship obs.

I don't think it's over. RapidScat has confirmed a closed LLC.

[Kingarabian]

Shear is now evident like it was at this time, yesterday.

I guess it was just tough to classify due to lack of SCAT passes or even ship obs.

I don't think it's over. RapidScat has confirmed a closed LLC.

No barbs showing 30-40kts?

[Yellow Evan]

No barbs showing 30-40kts?

25-30 kts max. But when you factor in undersampling, maybe.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Center looks a bit closer to the deep convection to me. Still mostly exposed though.

[Yellow Evan]

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1600 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms well east of the
circulation center. Significant development of this system appears
unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[HurricaneTracker2031]

91E is now back in a high wind shear environment and its convection is beginning to die. It still is somewhat disorganized and appears that it will not develop.



Synopsis on 91E and other systems: http://goo.gl/p6Br0d

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

The invest's magic seems to be over.

[Yellow Evan]

A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms to the east of
the circulation center. Environmental conditions are expected to
become less favorable over the next day or so, and significant
development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[HurricaneTracker2031]

91E is not going to survive. It's window of opportunity is up and it missed it. It will continue this weakening trend and this is probably the last of this straw.




Synopsis of 91E and more: http://goo.gl/NgbZs5

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

I love how it is doing a Karina and keeps regenerating convection.

[Yellow Evan]

A nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce a small area of showers and thunderstorms to the east
of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to become less
favorable over the next day or so, and significant development of
this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[Kingarabian]

It has been Karina-ing.