EPAC: INVEST 91E

[Kingarabian]

LLC is exposed to the west, but convection is slowly increasing.

Outflow is also beginning to become decent from the south.

[Yellow Evan]

With 90E gone, upper levels winds are at its lowest. But if it wants to form, it has to do so NOW.

[Kingarabian]

I'd bump the odds at 5PM if it continues.

[Kingarabian]

[HurricaneTracker2031]

91E is developing more convection and if it continues it may develop into a tropical cyclone. However, the window of opportunity is closing and it needs to soon if it wants to develop.



Synopsis on 91E and other systems: http://goo.gl/Q2CESE

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

91E doin' work.

[Kingarabian]

VIIRS shot courtesy of the NRL.

[Kingarabian]

NHC doesn't like it:

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 1600 miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of Baja California continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly to the northeast of
the center. Environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development in a day or so, and the potential for
this system to become a tropical depression appears to be
decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Exposed LLC is glaring and that shear infront of it will probably shred it soon. Looks really nice for an invest however.

[gatorcane]

Looks troughy to me still and it is quite clear the southwest shear is increasing.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks good, just no well-defined LLC.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

91E looks like its fighting for all it got right now and wants to stay in the game. However, the window of opportunity for this system to form is closing. It will be entering a higher wind shear environment soon and cooler waters. Needless to say, it looks like its over to me but I still hold a small doubt.




Synopsis on 91E and other systems: http://goo.gl/ePzqDG

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't think it's organized enough. Might be too little too late.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912015 05/25/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 13 14 14 14 16 21 27 24 24 24 29 31
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 1 2 4 3 1 2 2 3 5 1
SHEAR DIR 154 175 190 192 207 250 253 276 268 265 246 234 234
SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.6
POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 128 126 122 120 120 122 122 122 120 118 116
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4
700-500 MB RH 62 63 62 59 57 52 48 47 46 47 47 48 45
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 11 11 6 -1 -6 -12 -17 -16 -16 -9 -7 -7 -6
200 MB DIV 83 72 63 60 61 31 19 12 -24 -21 -15 2 16
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -1 -2 0 -2 -2
LAND (KM) 2511 2485 2443 2407 2372 2314 2218 2096 1937 1778 1606 1470 1368
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0
LONG(DEG W) 132.4 132.7 133.0 133.3 133.5 134.0 134.9 136.1 137.6 139.1 140.7 141.9 142.8
STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 7 6 4
HEAT CONTENT 22 15 10 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 785 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -19. -19.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -2. -9. -18. -26. -32. -36. -40. -43. -45.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 05/25/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912015 INVEST 05/25/15 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##

Maybe 24 hours left. Might make it in time.

[Yellow Evan]

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1600 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly to the
northeast of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to
continue to become less conducive for development while the system
moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Not a bad looking system, but not IMO T1.5 or T2,0 worthy. NHC won't IMO upgrade unless a RapidSCAT/ASCAT confirms it.

[Kingarabian]

Troughy or not, it appears to have an obvious LLC (visible imagery showed it clearly), deep convection, and I seen systems with a T2.0 rating that looked worse. That VIIS shot was beautiful.

[Kingarabian]

Beautiful looking trough with a beautiful ball of convection with nice cyclonic outflow.

[cycloneye]

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1600 miles west-
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms well to the
northeast of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to
continue to become less conducive for development while the system
moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

This has yet to warrant any Dvorak numbers, so idk what it's worthy of.

However, I agree it's porbs TD worthy now.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912015 05/25/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 11 11 13 15 18 21 20 23 27 32 36 32
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 4 6 1 0
SHEAR DIR 191 202 202 223 242 246 262 253 248 237 240 234 238
SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.6
POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 130 129 130 129 128 129 128 124 120 118 116
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4
700-500 MB RH 59 56 56 54 51 46 45 45 50 50 50 47 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -1 -8 -12 -15 -19 -20 -21 -21 -7 -8 -12 -9 -4
200 MB DIV 60 54 54 54 44 11 -11 2 -18 -7 -2 14 4
700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -4 -5 -7
LAND (KM) 2433 2420 2408 2423 2439 2369 2236 2074 1885 1699 1542 1430 1347
LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.7 14.8
LONG(DEG W) 131.8 132.0 132.1 132.3 132.6 133.5 134.8 136.4 138.2 139.9 141.3 142.3 143.1
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 3 6 7 8 8 8 6 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 14 10 6 6 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -15. -19. -21. -22. -22. -22.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -26. -34. -39. -44. -49. -53. -55.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 05/25/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)