EPAC: INVEST 91E

[cycloneye]

EP, 91, 2015052200, , BEST, 0, 74N, 1213W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 91, 2015052206, , BEST, 0, 81N, 1225W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 91, 2015052212, , BEST, 0, 88N, 1237W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 91, 2015052218, , BEST, 0, 94N, 1249W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
EP, 91, 2015052300, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1260W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I would not be surprised to see this become a weak to maybe moderate tropical storm over the coming days. It shouldn't become too strong due to its large size and track into increasingly dry air/cooler sea surface temperatures.

[Yellow Evan]

A tropical wave is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days
while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912015 05/23/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 41 44 39 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 41 44 39 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 31 32 31 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 2 4 1 5 7 13 21 29 38 42 43 39 33
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -2 2 4 3 4 5 3 -1 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 177 179 351 290 252 228 219 220 229 246 249 256 265
SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.6 27.0 25.7 24.6 24.1 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.9 24.4
POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 148 141 134 120 107 102 98 97 96 99 104
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 1
700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 74 73 68 64 60 56 52 50 48 38
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 12 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 4
850 MB ENV VOR 41 47 44 40 35 6 0 -6 -19 -35 -45 -47 -32
200 MB DIV 186 142 102 98 115 81 71 68 62 25 -13 -7 0
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 3 2 3 0 -6 -12 -11
LAND (KM) 2194 2223 2260 2296 2328 2345 2329 2260 2096 1899 1713 1628 1610
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.7 11.3 12.1 12.8 14.1 15.3 16.3 17.6 18.5 19.0 18.7 18.2
LONG(DEG W) 126.0 127.2 128.3 129.5 130.6 132.2 133.1 133.1 132.2 130.6 128.8 127.5 126.8
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 12 9 6 6 8 9 7 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 34 30 24 16 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Has at best 36-48 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1400 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the
next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[HurricaneTracker2031]

91E has a nice rotation and convection working for it. Furthermore, model guidance develops this system but has it realtively weak. We should see the next run, just in case. But, it should be intensifying as the conditions are bettering now.



Synopsis on 91E and other invests: http://goo.gl/U5Y3S9

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1400 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. While this system has
changed little in organization during the past several hours,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912015 05/23/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 12 18 29 36 38 39 40 35 31 28
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 0 3 0 0 2 7 3 0 0 0 -2
SHEAR DIR 163 218 215 211 220 223 225 229 243 247 258 259 256
SST (C) 28.3 27.5 26.8 26.2 25.6 24.7 24.1 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.4 24.7 24.8
POT. INT. (KT) 148 140 132 125 118 108 102 100 100 100 103 106 108
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2
700-500 MB RH 77 74 71 70 67 64 59 55 49 47 43 37 34
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 4
850 MB ENV VOR 29 23 20 8 -6 -10 -12 -29 -44 -35 -44 -31 8
200 MB DIV 107 83 73 88 72 47 46 64 39 0 -3 -6 3
700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -7 -12 -9 -11
LAND (KM) 2134 2161 2193 2185 2182 2138 2058 1921 1778 1650 1633 1672 1741
LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.9 16.9 17.8 18.3 18.5 18.1 17.7 17.2
LONG(DEG W) 127.2 128.3 129.3 130.0 130.6 131.3 131.2 130.3 129.0 127.6 127.0 127.1 127.5
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 11 9 8 6 6 6 7 5 2 2 4
HEAT CONTENT 35 22 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -5. -12. -17. -20. -22. -22.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -14. -26. -39. -49. -57. -63. -67.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 05/23/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
located about 1450 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California has decreased during the past 24 hours. However,
environmental conditions still appear conducive for gradual
development during the next couple of days while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Thereafter, the system should move
over cooler water and into an area of less favorable upper-level
winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912015 05/23/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 2 5 12 16 22 32 37 37 37 38 38 34 30
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 3 1 0 1 2 8 1 -3 -4 -5 -2
SHEAR DIR 168 189 211 222 222 217 231 239 247 241 249 242 248
SST (C) 27.7 27.0 26.4 25.9 25.4 24.6 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.6
POT. INT. (KT) 141 134 128 122 116 107 101 102 100 100 102 104 107
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2
700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 67 65 64 57 53 50 48 41 36 32
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4
850 MB ENV VOR 25 24 13 -2 -11 -9 -29 -40 -51 -47 -61 -29 6
200 MB DIV 83 79 74 71 49 35 57 47 28 10 7 25 20
700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 -2 -11 -13 -12 -9
LAND (KM) 2167 2191 2202 2194 2190 2139 2035 1902 1815 1797 1843 1920 2028
LAT (DEG N) 12.3 13.0 13.7 14.3 14.9 16.0 17.0 17.6 17.9 17.7 17.4 16.9 16.3
LONG(DEG W) 128.1 129.0 129.9 130.5 131.0 131.4 131.0 129.9 129.1 128.7 129.0 129.5 130.3
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 8 7 5 5 5 3 1 3 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 25 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -13. -18. -21. -23. -23.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -11. -21. -34. -45. -54. -63. -69. -73.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 05/23/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT:

Shower activity remains limited in association with a broad area of
low pressure located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California. Gradual development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, the low is
expected to move over cooler water and into an area of less
favorable upper-level winds which should inhibit development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[Kingarabian]

Convection starting to fire near the center. Looks like it's winning.

[Yellow Evan]

Right now, 90E is a bit closer to development, but 91E is heading in the right direction.

[Kingarabian]

Right now, 90E is a bit closer to development, but 91E is heading in the right direction.

90E really has great structure. But convection is really shallow and all over the place.

[Yellow Evan]

Right now, 90E is a bit closer to development, but 91E is heading in the right direction.

90E really has great structure. But convection is really shallow and all over the place.

90E's issue is that it is near the ITCZ. I view 90E more an imminent threat, while 91E a longer term threat. Both aren't terribly far off. If we're lucky, we see 2 TC's tomorrow.

[Yellow Evan]

Another broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1500
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is
moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Although shower activity
remains disorganized, some slow development of this system could
occur during the next day or so. After that time, however, the
disturbance is expected to move over cooler water and into a region
of less favorable upper-level winds, which should inhibit
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

Window closing fast.

Another broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1500
miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is
moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Although shower activity
remains disorganized, some slow development of this system could
occur during the next day or so. After that time, however, the
disturbance is expected to move over cooler water and into a region
of less favorable upper-level winds, which should inhibit
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Yellow Evan]

This is why we don't get storms near 130W in may.

[cycloneye]

Almost over.

A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 1550 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is moving
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Although showers and
thunderstorms have increased this morning, the activity remains
disorganized. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less
favorable for development during the next day or so, and the chance
of this system becoming a tropical cyclone is decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent