Arabian Sea 97A INVEST

[Alyono]

satellite data indicate this is a 45 kt cyclone

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.2N
68.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 67.7E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEPENED CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A
DEVELOPING LLCC. A 220312Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE LLCC. A 220142Z WINDSAT
PASS SHOWS A 25 TO 30 KNOT CIRCULATION CENTER WITH STRONGER (UP TO
GALE FORCE) WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 990 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
LLCC ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

WTIO21 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.5N 68.1E TO 21.2N 70.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 222030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.8N 69.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.9N
68.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 69.0E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221711Z GMI
36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A TIGHTER WRAPPED LLCC WITH INCREASED
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASS AT
221721Z SHOWED 30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM REACHING WARNING CRITERIA PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
232100Z.//
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