CPAC: INVEST 90C

[cycloneye]

90C INVEST 150627 1200 10.0N 140.0W CPAC 25 1009

[Yellow Evan]

Slight chance IMO.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP902015 06/27/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 29 30 30 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 28 29 30 30 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 9 11 8 19 23 26 33 40 39 38
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 4 4 5 4 11 7 3 1 7
SHEAR DIR 248 272 288 260 266 270 237 241 243 251 270 272 259
SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.3
POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 147 144 140 136 132 127 125 124 123 122 124
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 83 83 82 80 77 72 71 68 67 63 61 56 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2
850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 23 30 24 12 4 -4 -2 -12 -14 -25 -22
200 MB DIV 76 47 33 18 0 4 36 53 6 -1 -32 -7 -21
700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 0
LAND (KM) 1908 1791 1674 1570 1465 1273 1066 862 676 521 421 344 272
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.7 13.6 14.6 15.6 16.5 17.0 17.3 17.5
LONG(DEG W) 140.0 141.0 141.9 142.8 143.6 145.2 146.9 148.5 149.9 151.0 151.8 152.5 153.3
STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 4 3 4
HEAT CONTENT 20 9 13 21 26 30 11 3 0 0 2 3 6

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -21. -20. -20.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -6. -14. -23. -31. -37. -41.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902015 INVEST 06/27/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.0 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SAT JUN 27 2015



For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. A broad area of low pressure centered about 1300 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii and an area of thunderstorms located about 1150 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii has shown some organization over the last 24 hours. However, over the last several hours convection has waned. The environment remains somewhat conducive for development, therefore additional growth will remain possible during the couple of days as it drifts toward the west-northwest.* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Monday morning.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP902015 06/28/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 9 8 13 19 19 27 39 43 52 51
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 2 2 0 9 9 5 1 -8 -12
SHEAR DIR 333 293 292 286 278 253 265 255 257 276 289 286 267
SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4
POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 146 143 139 134 129 125 122 121 122 123 125
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 83 82 80 77 75 73 67 67 62 60 56 58 58
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 22 20 13 9 5 2 -5 -3 -5 -11 -22 -21 -22
200 MB DIV 41 34 31 13 -4 1 54 21 5 -26 -38 -27 11
700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -2 0 2 2 0 3 1 0 -1 0
LAND (KM) 1878 1774 1670 1562 1455 1255 1032 858 734 678 644 629 580
LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.2 13.1 14.1 14.9 15.6 15.8 15.7 15.4 15.4
LONG(DEG W) 140.2 141.0 141.8 142.7 143.5 145.1 146.9 148.3 149.2 149.7 150.2 150.7 151.4
STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 10 9 9 9 7 4 2 3 3 4
HEAT CONTENT 16 10 15 22 27 23 7 2 0 0 0 0 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 28. 30. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -4. -8. -12. -15.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -15. -14. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -13. -20. -28. -36. -44. -46. -47.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP902015 INVEST 06/28/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP902015 INVEST 06/28/15 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM HST SUN JUN 28 2015



For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. Scattered thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure was located around 1000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Although very little organization has been observed over the past six to 12 hours, some development will remain possible for another day as it drifts toward the west-northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through late Monday night.

[cycloneye]

Is over.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM HST SUN JUN 28 2015



For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located around 1000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii has decreased in the past six hours. Development of this feature is becoming less likely as it slowly drifts toward the west-northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, near 0 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday morning.