ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[NCSTORMMAN]

It was going.........it is here ANDDDDDDDD it is gone.

[psyclone]

Hence the persistence requirement from the NHC.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Hence the persistence requirement from the NHC.

lol GOT EM

[caneman]

Is everyone convince this moved inland? Finding a low pressure of 29.78 and 30 mph winds at.a couple of reporting stations. According to the 2 am update it sound s like it is near coast but not inland? Thoughts...granted nhc say upper level winds not favorable but say it should move out within a couple days.

[psyclone]

Rude morning wake up call...thunderstorms with frequent lightning and torrential rain are pounding northern pinellas and western pasco county...flood threat going up.

[NDG]

The low pressure has moved inland, or parts of it, but it does not matter, it will be pumping in the moisture to the waterlogged area of Tampa Bay.
I can only imagine the flooding pics that will be coming of that area because the ground is so saturated.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, they are really suffering down there with the floods. My heart goes out to those folks down in the Tampa region who are being affected by flooding conditions as training convergent bands of rain down there will really be causing potential major problems today.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located over north-central Florida
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms across
portions of central Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for development
as this low moves northeastward at 5 to 10 mph near the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
heavy rainfall across portions of central and northeastern Florida
today. For additional information on rainfall associated with this
system, refer to products from your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain/Brown

[psyclone]

Widespread flooding is ongoing with numerous roads impassable.

[TheStormExpert]

Widespread flooding is ongoing with numerous roads impassable.

Just goes to show you we do not need a TC to cause major impacts(especially flooding). Stay safe out there!

[tolakram]

Two saved radar loops this morning.

Jacksonville


Tampa

[tolakram]

Live visible loop:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

[NDG]

Wow, highest convergence & UL divergence is right over Tampa Bay, glad I do not have to go to Tampa this week.

[NDG]

There's some latent heat being released into the atmosphere, the cloud tops keep fanning out.

[cycloneye]

Low is inland.

95L INVEST 150803 1200 30.0N 82.9W ATL 25 1008

[tolakram]

Station at Clearwater

[northjaxpro]

The actual durface Low looks to be between Gainesville and Cross City and is now drifting east-northeast. 95L should be exiting off the NE Florida/SE Georgia coast by late this afternoon or early evening. I am inclined to believe that 95L has a decent chance to become a TS or possibly a minimal hurricane once it moves off the SE U.S. coast as it heads northeast.

[TheStormExpert]

The actual durface Low looks to be between Gainesville and Cross City and is now drifting east-northeast. 95L should be exiting off the NE Florida/SE Georgia coast by late this afternoon or early evening. I am inclined to believe that 95L has a decent chance to become a TS or possibly a minimal hurricane once it moves off the SE U.S. coast as it heads northeast.

I guess it may have a chance to acquire a name once it gets out into the open Atlantic off the SE U.S. Coast IF shear cooperates this time. I'd put odds at maybe 10% like the NHC has no higher ATM.

[TheStormExpert]

Wind Shear may be an issue again once this emerges into the Atlantic off the SE U.S. Coast.

[gatorcane]

Widespread flooding is ongoing with numerous roads impassable.

I have family still in the Tampa area (Palm Harbor actually, where you live). I was talking to my mom this morning and she has never seen this much rain in the Tampa area and she has lived in Pinellas County for 59 years. Unreal all the rain this system is producing.