ATL: DANNY - Models

[jlauderdal]

Also, keep in mind that the GFS is notorious of being too aggressive at times of deepening troughs. It is possible it may be doing it with these current runs. Just something to be wary of as we progress in time.

Gfs is also way too aggressive in generating systems and maintaining them

[Frank2]

Looking at the WV loop, its easy to see that additional weakening is likely:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

[WPBWeather]

Latest TCVN just ended in Ft. Lauderdale, for what it's worth.

[jinftl]

Is there any decease in forecast model accuracy for systems this small - ones that can spin up to a cat 3 and then wane and then????

[rockyman]

The 12z GFS shows the trough lifting out, right as Danny (or what's left of it) approaches SE Florida. The key is going to be how fast Danny moves over the next few days. A faster system would more likely recurve. A slower system could possibly be left behind.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[rockyman]

The 12z HWRF is coming in a little stronger, and farther north, than the 6z:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 2212&fh=42

[N2FSU]

[quote="rockyman"]The 12z GFS shows the trough lifting out, right as Danny (or what's left of it) approaches SE Florida. The key is going to be how fast Danny moves over the next few days. A faster system would more likely recurve. A slower system could possibly be left behind.

[tolakram]

12Z euro (looking at weatherbell) shows Dany vorticity staying well north of Hispaniola with some minor redevelopment in the Bahamas as it recurves back out.

[tolakram]

[BigB0882]

So the GFS and the Euro are showing a trough? Hard to go against when they agree. Let's see if they stick to this for 3-4 runs. May not be much of anything to recurve, anyway.

From the pics posted, isn't that a High pressure building in? Wouldn't the storm, or whatever is left, be caught under that and need to continue at least WNW or slight N of that? I am still learning how to read these maps. And while we are talking about the Euro, wouldn't that storm behind it be on a path due W because of said ridge?

[gatorcane]

The 12Z Euro seems to show a bigger trough off the Eastern United States which is leaning more with the GFS. Even if Danny were to bomb out in the SE Bahamas or even north of Hispaniola (which is a very low chance at this point anyway), it should recurve well east of Florida and the SE United States.

120 hours below, look at all the low heights sitting along the Eastern Coast of the United States all the way down deep into the Gulf and Florida by day 5:



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blinhart]

or he could be pushed SW for a little bit, he is doing he opposite of what everyone is expected.

[rockyman]

It's going to be a close call. Here is the 12z 192 hr Euro, showing the trough pulling away, as Danny begins to turn north:

[TheStormExpert]

That's the wave behind Danny.

[northjaxpro]

Wow, EURO really builds that ridge in faster at 192 hrs on that run. That trough really lifts out very quickly depicted here. The wave behind Danny (soon to be 98L) really needs to be watched next week.

[rockyman]

:uarrow: That's the wave behind Danny.

You are right. That makes a lot more sense. Thanks!

It looks like the Euro clobbers Danny and pushes the remnants into south Florida.

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: That's the wave behind Danny.

You are right. That makes a lot more sense. Thanks!

It looks like the Euro clobbers Danny and pushes the remnants into south Florida.

Nope even the remants recurve well east of Florida suggesting big-time troughing over the Eastern United States. That same trough lingers around and picks up the wave behind Danny too sending it on a recurve (though too early to know for sure if the wave behind Danny will definitely recurve or not).

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: That's the wave behind Danny.

You are right. That makes a lot more sense. Thanks!

It looks like the Euro clobbers Danny and pushes the remnants into south Florida.

Nope even the remants recurve well east of Florida suggesting big-time troughing over the Eastern United States. That same trough lingers around and picks up the wave behind Danny too sending it on a recurve (though too early to know for sure if the wave behind Danny will definitely recurve or not).

http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KMFL.html

LONG TERM (TUES-SAT)

MID AND UPPER TROUGH TAKES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NE FL OR SE GA
WED AND THURS. IN RESPONSE, H5 TEMPS WILL COOL AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. SO STORMS WILL BE STRONGER THAN WHAT
WE'VE EXPERIENCED THIS PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL HOLD ON ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS FOR A
WHILE, SUCH THAT SURFACE FLOW DOES NOT VEER TO THE SW UNTIL LATE
WEEK, AND THEN PERHAPS ONLY BRIEFLY.

[TheStormExpert]

And just like that the Semi-Permanent East Coast Trough is back. What a surprise.

[NCSTORMMAN]

And just like that the Semi-Permanent East Coast Trough is back. What a surprise.

Conspiracy theories abound.