90L - Ex ERIKA:Obs,Preps,BAH,Fla Peninsula / Fla Panhandle

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015

...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 56.0W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis,
and the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR AL052015
539 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015

THIS PRODUCT COVERS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS

CENTER OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO OR OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THURSDAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ALL PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL PUERTO RICO AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PR OR ABOUT 610
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT THOMAS VI OR ABOUT 590 MILES EAST
OF SAINT CROIX VI
- 16.1N 56.0W
- STORM INTENSITY 40 MPH
- MOVEMENT WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...AND
A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO OR OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY BECOME SWOLLEN WITH SWIFTER
CURRENTS AND OVERSPILL THEIR BANKS IN A FEW PLACES, ESPECIALLY
IN USUALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS,
ARROYOS, AND DITCHES OVERFLOW.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER SOME STRUCTURES OR WEAKEN FOUNDATIONS.
SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE EXPANDED AREAS OF RAPID
INUNDATION AT UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SOME STREETS AND PARKING LOTS TAKE ON MOVING WATER AS
STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS OVERFLOW. DRIVING CONDITIONS
BECOME HAZARDOUS. SOME ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES.

* WIND:
PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF PUERTO RICO. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA
INCLUDE:
- SOME ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. A FEW BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS
ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES, BUT MORE PREVALENT
IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

* TORNADOES:
PROTECT AGAINST A TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
INCLUDE:
- THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- A FEW PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE, ALONG WITH POWER
AND COMMUNICATIONS DISRUPTIONS.

* SURGE:
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

NOW IS THE TIME TO BRING TO COMPLETION ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN.

OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPED UP AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COMPLETELY DETERIORATE. ANY REMAINING EVACUATIONS
AND RELOCATIONS SHOULD BE EXPEDITED BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WIND.

CHECK-IN WITH YOUR EMERGENCY POINTS OF CONTACT AMONG FAMILY, FRIENDS,
AND WORKMATES. INFORM THEM OF YOUR STATUS AND WELL-BEING. LET THEM
KNOW HOW YOU INTEND TO RIDE OUT THE STORM AND WHEN YOU PLAN TO
CHECK-IN AGAIN.

IN EMERGENCIES IT IS BEST TO REMAIN CALM. STAY INFORMED AND FOCUSED
ON THE SITUATION AT HAND. EXERCISE PATIENCE WITH THOSE YOU ENCOUNTER.

IF YOU ARE A VISITOR AND STILL IN THE AREA, LISTEN FOR THE NAME OF
THE CITY OR TOWN IN WHICH YOU ARE STAYING WITHIN LOCAL NEWS UPDATES.
BE SURE YOU KNOW THE NAME OF THE COUNTY OR PARISH IN WHICH IT
RESIDES. PAY ATTENTION FOR INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BE READY TO ADAPT TO POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN PR AROUND 9AM AST, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye, looks like TS erika could be a possible rain marker bringing beneficial rains for most the Leewards and hope especially en la isla del encanto Puerto Rico


000
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Friday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Gustywind]

LIAT flights cancelled. Please see link below

http://www.liat.com/navSource.html?page_id=848

Tropical Storm Erika – Advisory # 1

ISSUED AT 4:00PM – AUGUST 25, 2015

ST. JOHN’S, Antigua – LIAT wishes to advise that due to the impending passage of Tropical Storm Erika, it has been forced to cancel the following services for Wednesday, August 26, Thursday, August 27 and Friday August 28:

Cancellations for Wednesday, August 26:

FLIGHT

ROUTING


LI 512

Barbados to Antigua


LI 526

Antigua to St. Kitts to Tortola to San Juan


LI 524

Barbados to Dominica to Antigua


LI 508

Antigua to St. Kitts to St. Maarten to Tortola


LI 509

Tortola to St. Maarten to Antigua


Cancellations for Thursday, August 27:


FLIGHT

ROUTING


LI 581

Antigua to Dominica to Barbados


LI 527

San Jun to Tortola to St. Kitts to Antigua


LI 560

Dominica to San Juan


LI 561

San Juan to Dominica


LI 550

Antigua to St. Kitts to St. Maarten to St. Thomas


LI 553

St. Thomas to St. Maarten to Antigua


LI 508

Antigua to St. Kitts to St. Maarten to Tortola


LI 509

Tortola to St. Maarten to St. Kitts to Antigua


LI 526

Antigua to St. Kitts to Tortola to San Juan


LI 326

Barbados to St. Maarten


LI 327

St. Maarten to Barbados

· LI 771 (Antigua to St. Lucia) has been re-timed to depart at a time to be advised



· LI 362 (Barbados to Antigua) has been re-timed to depart at a time to be advised





Cancellation for Friday, August 28:
FLIGHT

ROUTING


LI 527

San Juan to Tortola to St. Kitts to Antigua

Due to the pending closure of several airports in the LIAT network there could be further disruptions to LIAT’s schedule. Any additional affected flights will be published in a subsequent advisory.

Affected passengers are asked to check the LIAT website (http://www.liat.com), and the LIAT Facebook and Twitter Pages for information on the status of their flights.

Customers affected by the disruptions who wish to rebook for a later date will be allowed to do so without change fees or fare differences for a period of two weeks from the date of their original scheduled travel. Following the two-week grace period, passengers will be required to pay applicable fare and change fees when re-booking.

LIAT also wishes to advise that passengers who decide to travel but are unable to complete their journey due to disruption caused by weather conditions, will not be provided with meals, transportation, hotel accommodation etc. Passengers with onward connections are advised to contact the respective carriers.


LIAT regrets any inconvenience caused as a result of the passage of the storm.

=END=

[Gustywind]

Tropical Storm Erika Marches Toward the Leeward Islands

By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist

August 26, 2015; 6:53 AM ET

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... 1/52021729

Tropical Storm Erika formed on Monday night and will track across the northern Caribbean through the week.

Erika will take a track slightly farther north from what was Danny and will bring another round of rainfall from the northern Lesser Antilles to Hispaniola.

This system will be steered westward by a large dome of high pressure across the Atlantic during much of this week.

"This high is expected to guide Erika on a west-northwest course through Thursday," said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
Erika is currently located about 390 miles east of Antigua and is expected to move across the Leeward Islands on Wednesday night and Thursday with rain, wind and rough surf.

"Erika is in an environment of low shear, warm water and deep tropical moisture. These ideal conditions should support further strengthening over the next couple days," Kottlowski said.

Tropical systems are most likely to strengthen in areas of weak wind shear. If wind shear is too strong, the system becomes disorganized and weakens.

"Wind shear is when strong winds near the surface and aloft blow strongly from different directions," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

Danny thrived late last week in a zone of low wind shear. Once it moved into an area of increasing wind shear near the Leeward Islands, the system weakened rapidly.

"Erika is a larger tropical cyclone compared to Danny and will probably not intensify as quickly as Danny did," Kottlowski said.

Danny intensified into a Category 3 hurricane over the open Atlantic, becoming the first major hurricane in the Atlantic this season. When it moved into an area of wind shear, it weakened and dissipated when moving across the Lesser Antilles.

The future of Erika and the track it takes will depend on various factors, including its strength, the interaction with the Caribbean Islands and the location of the dome of high pressure over the Atlantic steering the system.

"If Erika does not slowly strengthen and instead weakens, more than likely Erika will take a path more westward similar to Danny where it will run into more shear," said Kottlowski.

A path like Danny would also take it over more of the Caribbean islands where there is the potential for Erika to get torn apart due to the localized terrain.

A track into the northern islands of the Caribbean would bring another dose of needed rainfall.

"Rainfall totals over the Leeward Islands from Danny were mostly less than one inch. The heaviest rain total occurred at Canfield Airport on the west coast of the island of Dominica with just over 2 inches," said Kottlowski.


Much of the eastern half of Puerto Rico is under at least a severe drought, according to the United States Drought Monitor. Because of this, water rationing programs are in effect on the eastern side of the island.

If this system slices north of the Leeward Islands, where there will be less land interaction, then it could survive and perhaps strengthen again. In this scenario, steering winds north of the Caribbean Islands will likely allow the system to track toward the Bahamas and possibly Florida.
Erika is predicted to move across the northern Caribbean as a tropical storm. If it is able to track farther north during its lifetime then it may become stronger, although this does not seem the most likely scenario at this moment.

According to Kottlowski, the exact path this weekend into next week is uncertain at this time.

A large area of high pressure over the central Plains bringing a shot of cooler air to the Midwest and Northeast this week is expected to move into the western Atlantic Ocean late this week and into the weekend.

Should this high sit across the western Atlantic Ocean over the weekend and into next week, this could steer Erika into Florida or into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The exact track of this scenario would depend on the strength of Erika. A stronger Erika could bring it into Florida while a weaker Erika could move it into the Gulf of Mexico.

"All interests in the northeast Caribbean, Bahamas, Florida and the Southeast United States should closely monitor the progression of this system," Kottlowski said.

The AccuWeather Hurricane Center will continue to provide information on Erika, as well as all other tropical features across all ocean basins.

Despite a quiet first half of the hurricane season across the Atlantic, late August through September are typically the peak of tropical activity.

At this point in the hurricane season, water temperatures are at their warmest. This gives disturbances moving across the Atlantic from Africa the best chance for development.

"We are also watching a tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands but further development seems unlikely at this time," said Kottlowski.

In May, AccuWeather predicted eight tropical storms, four of those to become hurricanes across the Atlantic Basin during 2015. Erika is the fifth tropical storm of the season with Danny being the only storm becoming a hurricane.

AccuWeather Meteorologist Jordan Root also contributed to this story.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 261153
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
800 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ERIKA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 56.8W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 56.8 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours.
On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over
portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and move near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph
(75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast
during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Friday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

You can see many web cams from the NE Caribbean here.Web Cams in Eastern Caribbean

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015

...ERIKA CONTINUES WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 57.6W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

[Gustywind]

Latest news: Our Pro Mets have put the Northern Leewards on a Tropical Storm Warning (orange alert): http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... s_nord.pdf

Moreover, they have back off the Tropical Storm Watch for Guadeloupe to a yellow vigilance for a risk of strong showers and tstorms while they issued an yellow alert for Martinica due to a risk of strong showers and tstorms.
http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
200 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015

...ERIKA CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE
THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 58.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

[Gustywind]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
200 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015

...ERIKA CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE
THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 58.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

oh oh little miss is racing straight towards Guadeloupe ? Curious that Erika has not turned yet... if this thing continue on a west direction chances to see strong winds are increasing While we're not under a Tropical Storm Watch!
NHC wrote on the latest weather forecast that Guadeloupe is Under a Storm Watch but given the latest weather forecast ... Guadeloupe is "only Under a yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms! That's becoming strange and slightly worrying.

[Gustywind]

Prime Minister Gumbs: All Businesses, Schools and Government Offices Closed on Thursday due to the arrival of Erika
26 Aug 2015
Published in Soualiga News Today

http://www.soualiganewsday.com/local/so ... erika.html

PHILIPSBURG – Prime Minister Marcel Gumbs, chairman of the Emergency Operations Center (EOC), addressed the nation at noon on Wednesday, August 26 with respect to the approach of Tropical Storm Erika.

The Prime Minister stated the following in his national address:

“The country of Sint Maarten is under a Tropical Storm Warning. Tropical Storm Erika at 11.00AM Wednesday morning was located 335 miles east south-east from Sint Maarten. Some slow strengthening is possible.

“The current forecast as of Wednesday morning, has Tropical Storm Erika passing just south of Sint Maarten on Thursday.

“Tropical storm force winds are expected in our area from late tonight through Thursday.

“Erika is to produce rain of 2 to 4 inches with a maximum amount of 8 inches across the islands. This can lead to flooding and land slippages and mudslides, and therefore residents in hillside areas should exercise caution after heavy rainfall.

“Erika is expected to produce waves up to 13 feet near the center of the storm. Some coastal flooding and beach erosion is possible on Thursday as the storm passes at its closest to the country.

“Residents living along coastal areas should take measures to protect property.

“All citizens, residents and businesses should make final preparations to protect life and property and have these completed by early this evening. You recently had the experience of preparing for Danny, those same preparations are also required for Tropical Storm Erika.

“The Government of Sint Maarten Emergency Disaster Management system has taken all necessary measures to safeguard the country. These measures were taken prior to Tropical Storm Danny and remain in place with respect to the approach of Tropical Storm Erika.

“A request for military assistance has been requested.

“The White & Yellow Cross reports that its two day care facilities will be closed on Thursday. Reopening on Friday will be determined based on weather conditions.

“Contractors and builders are called upon to secure building sites this afternoon before the end of the day. Implement your hurricane plans as you did prior to Danny.

“Schools and day care centres are to be closed on THURSDAY, August 27 due to the passing of the tropical storm. Additional information will be forthcoming after the storm has passed and an assessment has been made.

- All casinos and restaurants must be closed by midnight tonight.

- All businesses are to stay closed on Thursday, August 27 until the all clear has been given by the Prime Minister.

- All Government offices will be closed on Thursday, August 27.

“Continue to follow the latest reports regarding Tropical Storm Erika via local radio stations; the Government Website (http://www.sintmaartengov.org) and the Government Facebook Page where official information will be posted as it becomes available. For weather reports visit the Meteorological Department of Sint Maarten at http://www.meteosxm.com

“On Thursday the Prime Minister will address the country at 12.00PM.

“Take the necessary measures required to protect your home and business,” Marcel Gumbs, Prime Minister of Sint Maarten said on Wednesday in a national address to the nation.

[Gustywind]

Winds is picking up nicely on an station located on the extreme part of the island from NE at la Désirade 33km/h with gust at 66km/h...
LA DESIRADE METEO (27m - 16.3°N - 61°W)

http://www.meteofrance.gp/observations- ... eloupe/971

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015

...ERIKA EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 58.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo
Engano to Cabo Frances Viejo.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
800 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015

...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 59.5W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 262338
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
800 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015

...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 59.5W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the
progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 59.5 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next
48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near
or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just
north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.

Both NOAA and Air Force planes are currently investigating Erika,
and the maximum sustained winds are still likely to be near 45 mph
(75 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are confined to heavy
squalls to the southeast of the center. Little change in strength or
perhaps some slight weakening could occur during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands tonight and early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the
Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos
Islands on Friday.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic through Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Gustywind]

Storm Erika: several flights canceled on Thursday Antilles

https://translate.google.fr/translate?s ... edit-text=

The regional airline Air Antilles Express informs its passengers that due to the passage of Tropical Storm Erika, the following flights will be canceled:

Thursday, August 27th
Flight 3S720: Starting Pointe-à-Pitre at 7 am 15, arrived at St. Bartholomew to 8 h 15.
Flight 3S721: from St Barthelemy to 8: 30 pm, arrival at Pointe-à-Pitre to 9 h 30.
Flight 3S722: Starting Pointe-à-Pitre at 10: 45 am, arrival at St. Bartholomew at 11 h 45.
Flight 3S723: from St Barthelemy at 12:00, arriving at Pointe-à-Pitre in 13 hours.
Flight 3S210: from Pointe-a-Pitre 8:00, arriving in St. Martin at 8 am 50.
Flight 3S211: from Saint-Martin 15 at 9 am, arrival at Pointe-à-Pitre at 10 am 05.

The passengers will be transferred to the first available flights following.
To change sonbillet, call 0890 648 648 or one of the outlets of the company Airport

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 270244
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 60.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevisis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the
progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 60.2 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a west to
west-northwest motion with the same forward speed is expected over
the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will
move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands early Thursday,
and then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later on
Thursday, and be near or just north of the north coast of the
Dominican Republic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. These winds are confined to heavy squalls to the north and
east of the center. No significant change in strength or perhaps
some slight weakening is anticipated during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in the Leeward Islands early Thursday, and reach the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later on Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands
tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could reach
portions of the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and
Turks and Caicos Islands on Friday.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic through Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

000
WTNT45 KNHC 270244
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015

Erika is a very disorganized tropical storm. Although convection
has increased and is a little closer to the center tonight, data
from both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that
the surface pressure is not falling, and the maximum winds remain
about 40 kt. These winds are confined to squalls to the north and
east of the center.

Erika will be moving through a hostile wind shear environment as
predicted by global models and the SHIPS guidance. On this
basis, the NHC forecast weakens Erika to a 35-kt tropical storm
and keeps that intensity for the next 48 hours. Erika, however,
could even degenerate into a trough during the next day or so. If
Erika survives the next 3 days and reaches the Bahamas, the
environment is expected to become quite favorable. In fact, global
models and the HWRF/GFDL pair forecast Erika to become a hurricane
by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a little
below the intensity consensus to reflect the possibility that the
cyclone could dissipate before it reaches the Bahamas, and then it
will be too late to take advantage of the more conducive environment
there.

Fixes from the reconnaissance planes indicate that Erika is moving
toward the west or 280 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is embedded
within well-established steering currents south of the Atlantic
subtropical ridge. This persistent pattern will likely keep the
cyclone or its remnants, in case it weakens, on a west to
west-northwest motion for the next 3 days. After that time, the
system will be in between the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge and a mid-level trough, which is forecast to be nearly
stationary along the east-central portion of the United States.
This will force the cyclone to turn more to the northwest or even
northward. Guidance shifted farther east tonight, and consequently,
the NHC track forecast was adjusted slightly eastward, and it is
very close to the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS models.

One should remember to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the long range where the average NHC track errors
during the past 5 years are about 180 miles at day 4 and 240
miles at day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 16.7N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 17.4N 62.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 18.6N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 20.0N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 21.2N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 23.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 26.0N 78.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 28.5N 79.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Gustywind]

Storm Erika: orange alert for heavy rain and thunderstorms
https://translate.google.fr/translate?h ... 336446.php


The orange alert for heavy rains and storms has been activated late Thursday afternoon. According to the latest bulletin from Météo France, at 5PM hours, Erika was located 280 km from Guadeloupe. She lost slightly in intensity this afternoon, but remains at a tropical storm and is moving at a speed of 28 km / h on a West-Northwest track which passes north of Antigua shortly after the middle Wednesday night through Thursday.

Forecast:
The Guadeloupe is concerned with the southern part of Erika. Our islands are therefore not affected by the most significant effects associated with this phenomenon. However precipitation associated with this storm seem extensive and these rains are the most sensitive parameter. Until middle of the night from Wednesday to Thursday, the rain can be temporarily supported, but remain isolated. Subsequently, rains take a more widespread and will continue into the afternoon Thursday before subside. These rainstorms can also be associated with strong gusts of wind.

Observed data:
Of all of the rainfall event associated with Erika, of 50-100 mm accumulations are expected. Under heavy storms, heights of the order of 20 to 30 mm in just one hour are possible. Under these rainstorms, gusty winds surrounding 80 km / h or 90 km / h are possible, especially in the second part of Wednesday night to Thursday and early in the morning.


INDIVIDUAL MEASURES RECOMMENDED BY THE BEHAVIOUR
PRÉFECTURE:
VIGILANCE ORANGE HEAVY RAIN

-Ask You before undertaking travel and be very careful
-Avoid The mountain walks and hikes in relief
-If You live in a flood zone, put your belongings safe susceptible to damage and monitor the rising water
-If Your home may be threatened by a landslide, leave there or be prepared to evacuate quickly
-In Case storm: Avoid the use of phones and electrical appliances. Do not shelter in a wooded area, close to poles or posts, or under an isolated tree.

[msbee]

http://www.soualiganewsday.com/local/so ... tions.html


The closest point to Sint Maarten has now been updated with the latest available weather data. Around 4.00PM on Thursday afternoon, Erika will be the closest to the country, approximately 38 miles. This would mean that tropical storm conditions could be felt starting some time Thursday morning and during the afternoon as the system moves away from the area towards the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.