Is that flattening out or westerly motion at the end of the model guidance a result of the storm weakening or a high pressure building in similar to Ike of '08?
All my views or ideas in regards to meteorology are amateur and should only be viewed as such.
ATL: FRED - Models
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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ
Model intensity has come down significantly since the last run, probably won't get much more than a weak TS out of it as it'll likely go NW over cooler waters.
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AutoPenalti
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Re:
Hammy wrote:Model intensity has come down significantly since the last run, probably won't get much more than a weak TS out of it as it'll likely go NW over cooler waters.
The weaker it is, the more west it could go.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models
12z guidance.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: FRED - Models
Interestingly, each consecutive run of the NAVGEM has now trended Fred to track further south and westward than each prior run, and now reaching approx. 18N and 40W and re-intensifying to 996mb (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_24.png). EURO, GFS and CMC continue to move Fred Northwest and into the N. Atlantic.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: FRED - Models
chaser1 wrote::crazyeyes: Interestingly, each consecutive run of the NAVGEM has now trended Fred to track further south and westward than each prior run, and now reaching approx. 18N and 40W and re-intensifying to 996mb (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_24.png). EURO, GFS and CMC continue to move Fred Northwest and into the N. Atlantic.
NAVGEM doesn't seem to be trusted around these parts, but its possible it could be right and the rest follow.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: FRED - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:chaser1 wrote::crazyeyes: Interestingly, each consecutive run of the NAVGEM has now trended Fred to track further south and westward than each prior run, and now reaching approx. 18N and 40W and re-intensifying to 996mb (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_24.png). EURO, GFS and CMC continue to move Fred Northwest and into the N. Atlantic.
NAVGEM doesn't seem to be trusted around these parts, but its possible it could be right and the rest follow.
There are many this year, who might say the same.... regarding the GFS & EURO.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
GFS weakens Fred and turns it northeast in about a week, restrengthening it and giving it another week as a TS or minimal hurricane.
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The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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