ATL: GRACE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: GRACE - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 03, 2015 6:22 pm

Image

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

#2 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Sep 03, 2015 7:15 pm

early run want take it out to sea
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#3 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:09 pm

Little consensus with the models. If it develops quickly it probably will head more NW as shown by the BAMD, but if it stays weak it should head generally westward over the next 5 days (BAMS/BAMM).

Image
0 likes   

Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2134
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#4 Postby Steve H. » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:15 pm

I typically like the BAMM in the deep tropics.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#5 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 03, 2015 9:20 pm

I see little model support for this from the globals. The GFS is the only system to bring it to TS intensity (and for that matter develop it at all.) The rest keep it as an open wave or barely closed low.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

#6 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 04, 2015 12:18 am

The 0Z GFS *fwiw* develops 91L by Sunday 9/6. Then it remains a TC for a few days as it moves WNW followed by gradual weakening to an open wave. Interestingly, this open wave/moisture continues WNW and makes it all of the way over to S FL 9/19! Could we be looking at another long trekker? Again, fwiw.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4833
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#7 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Sep 04, 2015 12:33 am

Hammy wrote:I see little model support for this from the globals. The GFS is the only system to bring it to TS intensity (and for that matter develop it at all.) The rest keep it as an open wave or barely closed low.


You may be right and if you are, that would much more likely support a westward movement as opposed to have it recurve out to sea....

it wouldn't surprise me though if it does run into a lot of trouble though. After all, it is 2015, lol.........
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#8 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 04, 2015 7:24 am

No support for development from the Euro, but even if it develops into a tropical storm wind shear will be waiting for as it nears the Caribbean.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#9 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 04, 2015 10:38 am

12Z Guidance:
Image
Image
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re:

#10 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 04, 2015 12:11 pm

LarryWx wrote:The 0Z GFS *fwiw* develops 91L by Sunday 9/6. Then it remains a TC for a few days as it moves WNW followed by gradual weakening to an open wave. Interestingly, this open wave/moisture continues WNW and makes it all of the way over to S FL 9/19! Could we be looking at another long trekker? Again, fwiw.


12Z GFS is similar to what I posted for the 0Z GFS except the open wave doesn't make it to S FL. The shear in the latter days of the run in the Caribbean and Gulf is relentless and, if anything, is even stronger through the entire run out 16 days (9/20). It might make it to TD/TS status but the shear would later destroy it assuming this run is not way off.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#11 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 04, 2015 12:31 pm

The GEM redevelops this system in the long-range when it gets north of the Caribbean. It has done so the past two runs. But it is the "Crazy Uncle!"

240 hour image below, super-long range:

Image
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

#12 Postby LarryWx » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:36 pm

Both the 0Z and 12Z Euro runs look like they don't even make it to solid TD. Perhaps the 12Z barely gets to TD.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#13 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:43 pm

The models busted big-time on major hurricane Danny around this time. All the globals were showing the disturbance that spawned Danny would dissipate over the Central Atlantic.

Not until that disturbance got further west and deepened a bit more did the globals start to react.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 04, 2015 1:59 pm

Image

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138885
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 04, 2015 2:10 pm

Code: Select all

                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL912015  09/04/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    29    32    36    45    51    57    62    63    63    62    61
V (KT) LAND       25    26    29    32    36    45    51    57    62    63    63    62    61
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    29    32    38    46    53    59    61    60    58    55
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        14    11     8     5     6     2     4     4     8    11    11    17    20
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     2     4     4     3     5     8     5     5     7     5    10     6     8
SHEAR DIR         43    48    35    10    12    19   254   213   215   249   236   231   223
SST (C)         28.3  28.3  28.3  28.3  28.4  28.5  28.1  27.7  27.5  27.7  27.7  27.6  27.4
POT. INT. (KT)   143   143   143   142   144   145   139   134   131   133   133   131   128
ADJ. POT. INT.   147   147   146   145   146   146   140   133   128   129   128   125   121
200 MB T (C)   -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     7     7     7     8     9     9     9     9    10    10    11
700-500 MB RH     67    68    70    70    70    68    62    60    55    54    50    54    51
MODEL VTX (KT)    12    11    12    12    13    13    13    13    15    15    14    13    12
850 MB ENV VOR    15    12    15    30    33    37    33    25    20    10     4    -6   -21
200 MB DIV        52    44    40    30    24    11    -1    -3     0     0    28    21     4
700-850 TADV      -8    -7    -8   -10   -10   -11    -3    -5    -3    -5    -1    -1    -1
LAND (KM)        504   661   820   955  1090  1338  1605  1878  1853  1683  1571  1481  1416
LAT (DEG N)     11.1  11.3  11.4  11.6  11.8  12.2  12.6  12.9  13.4  13.7  14.3  14.7  15.2
LONG(DEG W)     21.3  22.8  24.3  25.7  27.1  29.6  32.2  34.8  37.2  39.4  41.4  43.2  44.8
STM SPEED (KT)    14    15    14    14    13    12    13    12    11    10    10     9     8
HEAT CONTENT      10    13    11     7     7     9    12    23    16    12    10    16    18

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14      CX,CY: -13/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  522  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  54.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   5.  11.  18.  23.  27.  30.  32.  33.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   7.   9.  11.  12.  11.  11.  10.   8.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   2.   3.   6.   5.   3.   1.  -1.  -4.  -6.  -8.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   2.   1.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   4.   7.  11.  20.  26.  32.  37.  38.  38.  37.  36.

   ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912015 INVEST     09/04/15  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.8 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  68.8 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 121.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.5
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   9.6 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  38.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912015 INVEST     09/04/2015  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#16 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 04, 2015 3:58 pm

SFWMD graphic:
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4175
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#17 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 04, 2015 5:31 pm

What does the box indicated below signify?

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#18 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Sep 04, 2015 5:50 pm

^ That is known as Hebert Box. It's an area where they monitor potential hurricanes that could hit South Florida.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#19 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 04, 2015 6:09 pm

The 18Z HWRF shows quite a robust storm by hour 63:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4175
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re:

#20 Postby abajan » Fri Sep 04, 2015 7:21 pm

galaxy401 wrote:^ That is known as Hebert Box. It's an area where they monitor potential hurricanes that could hit South Florida.
Ah yes. Thanks. I've heard the term before but never knew exactly where the box was.
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 26 guests