EPAC: INVEST 90E

[cycloneye]

90E INVEST 150913 0000 12.5N 108.5W EPAC 20 1006


An area of disturbed weather has formed about 700 miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next few days as it
moves generally northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Not likely to be much. The UKEMT and GFS and ECMWF don't have this system I don't think. The NOGAPS and CMC do however.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP902015  09/13/15  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    20    20    22    24    30    38    44    50    52    52    51    50
V (KT) LAND       20    20    20    22    24    30    38    44    50    52    52    51    50
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    20    21    22    24    27    31    35    38    41    42    42
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         5     8     7     5     5     6     6     1     3     5    12    13    14
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     3     1     0     0     0    -4    -4    -1     0     0     1    -1    -2
SHEAR DIR         98   135   125   109    62    92   105   140   156   170   148   166   169
SST (C)         29.5  29.5  29.5  29.5  29.4  29.4  29.3  29.2  29.1  28.9  28.7  28.3  28.0
POT. INT. (KT)   158   157   157   157   156   157   156   156   155   154   152   148   144
200 MB T (C)   -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8
TH_E DEV (C)       9     8     8     8     9     8     9     9     9     8     8     6     5
700-500 MB RH     67    67    68    68    69    70    65    63    61    61    58    58    55
MODEL VTX (KT)     6     5     5     5     5     4     5     4     4     4     4     4     3
850 MB ENV VOR    -9   -13    -5    -2    -7    -5     0     2     0     1    -2   -11   -14
200 MB DIV        18    15    22    37    36    14    14   -10    -1    17    -4    11     2
700-850 TADV       0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     1     2     1     1     2
LAND (KM)        846   838   831   833   838   845   891   922   939  1007  1083  1189  1327
LAT (DEG N)     12.5  12.8  13.0  13.2  13.4  14.0  14.6  15.1  15.7  16.3  17.1  17.7  18.2
LONG(DEG W)    108.5 108.8 109.1 109.5 109.8 110.6 111.7 113.0 114.7 116.6 118.7 120.9 123.0
STM SPEED (KT)     5     4     4     4     4     6     7     8     9    10    11    11    10
HEAT CONTENT      28    23    21    21    20    20    23    35    29    25    17    15    17

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/  6      CX,CY:  -4/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  566  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  22.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  43.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.   0.   1.   7.  15.  24.  30.  35.  38.  40.  41.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  11.  10.   9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   1.   2.   4.   7.   7.   7.   6.   6.   5.   4.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -8.  -8.  -8.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           0.   0.   2.   4.  10.  18.  24.  30.  32.  32.  31.  30.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902015 INVEST     09/13/15  00 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   5.9 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 137.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  22.5 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.5
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  22.6 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  25.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  73.4 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/ -0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    30% is   2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Extratropical94]

Basically no change all day.

90E INVEST 150913 1800 13.5N 109.3W EPAC 20 1007

An area of disturbed weather is located about 650 miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next few days while
it moves generally northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Extratropical94]

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is
possible during the next several days as the system moves generally
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 14 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this system is possible during the next several days as it moves
generally northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

I doubt much will come from this and tbh idk why this is even an invest.

[CaliforniaResident]

Looks like sheer in the EPAC is too high to allow development right now which means we might not even get to Olaf for the season, let alone the entire alphabet. On another note, San Diego's SST hit that elusive 80 F mark over the weekend; not sure what the SST are in within the zone between the coastline and Baja but I bet if the EPAC becomes favorable for TC development sometime in the next 2-3 weeks and we have another "Baja hugger" with an early fall trough to push the TC inland in far Southern California, I still say we could get that one hundred year event, possibly a repeat of the 1858 San Diego hurricane.

Yah, I know yall still think I'm crazy but history repeats itself and there's no such thing as a one time event in weather.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like sheer in the EPAC is too high to allow development right now which means we might not even get to Olaf for the season, let alone the entire alphabet. On another note, San Diego's SST hit that elusive 80 F mark over the weekend; not sure what the SST are in within the zone between the coastline and Baja but I bet if the EPAC becomes favorable for TC development sometime in the next 2-3 weeks and we have another "Baja hugger" with an early fall trough to push the TC inland in far Southern California, I still say we could get that one hundred year event, possibly a repeat of the 1858 San Diego hurricane.

Yah, I know yall still think I'm crazy but history repeats itself and there's no such thing as a one time event in weather.

Shear is high since we are in a suppressed CCKW phase. We should get to Olaf, and possibly even to Rick.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED SEP 16 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A weak low pressure area located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Some gradual development of this system is possible by this weekend
while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Berg

[CaliforniaResident]

Models are predicting a good chance of rain next week at this time in San Diego (very rare in September and only after getting a deluge yesterday from the remnants of Linda) so it looks like it would come from the remnants of this tropical low pressure system that only has 20 percent chance of forming into a TC.

Maybe it will become a TD and almost sustain itself as such on the way here without ever getting a name?

It's unprecedented to have even more than one rain event in coastal SoCal in summer and this summer, I've counted seeing rainfall on 7 separate days so far in San Diego (I'm counting September as a summer month since it is our hottest month here).

[Yellow Evan]

Not an invest, but ex-90E is at 20/30.


A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with a weak area of low
pressure. Some gradual development of this system is possible by
this weekend while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

UKMET and ECMWF both develop this in 3 days before racing north-northwest and getting torn apart by southwesterly shear.

Regardless of development, additional moisture in the SW US is likely.

[Socalsgrl]

Will cross fingers in hopes that we still at least get rain from this. So sorry to see it not really doing anything. This year has been so active for us.