ATL: NINE - Models

[cycloneye]

Only models here.

[YoshiMike]

Hmm maybe this system could be the next 'cane!

[YoshiMike]

That is some weird path models. Some of those have some SHARP turns lol

[Sanibel]

Sharp turn right?

[Hurricaneman]

Sharp turn right?

almost all the models have that sharp turn due to the low to its north around 25N

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[cycloneye]

Pretty intense.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF develops the wave behind this one and not 93L.

[cycloneye]

Intense hurricane if models are right.

[Alyono]

The 12Z ECMWF develops the wave behind this one and not 93L.

why do we take that model seriously when it has shown zero skill in intensity forecasting this year?

[Hammy]

I'm not surprised the Euro is backing off on development (and I'll believe a weak Euro solution over a strong GFS one given the latter's equally terrible history) as this system is really a mess at the surface. It seems to be a very elongated trough, with winds simply flowing directly from one low pressure area to another. I don't see anything beyond just being strong ITCZ activity.

[cycloneye]

Shear will not be a big problem in the short to medium term.

Code: Select all

                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL932015  09/13/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    30    36    42    47    59    68    76    80    80    78    80    85
V (KT) LAND       25    30    36    42    47    59    68    76    80    80    78    80    85
V (KT) LGE mod    25    28    32    36    41    52    66    79    87    84    78    74    70
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        14    12    13    13    14     8    10    10    13    18    20    23    19
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -5    -6    -5   -10    -6    -3     4     9    14     8     2    -3
SHEAR DIR         37    39    43    60    77    27   359   323   311   277   262   263   246
SST (C)         28.2  28.2  28.1  28.1  28.1  28.2  28.3  28.2  27.9  27.7  27.8  27.8  27.8
POT. INT. (KT)   139   140   138   137   137   138   139   138   136   134   136   137   137
ADJ. POT. INT.   139   140   136   135   134   132   133   132   130   130   131   130   127
200 MB T (C)   -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     8     9     9     9     8     7     7     7     7     6
700-500 MB RH     68    69    69    66    62    59    56    63    66    70    69    67    65
MODEL VTX (KT)    11    13    13    15    15    16    15    15    17    18    19    23    28
850 MB ENV VOR    44    49    48    47    44    32    23    34    19     9    -4   -25   -20
200 MB DIV        46    49    12   -26   -31   -18    14    79    83    73    69    80    86
700-850 TADV     -13   -12   -11   -10    -6    -1     0     3     4    13    17    30    26
LAND (KM)       1855  1758  1664  1592  1523  1436  1447  1516  1693  1943  2266  2138  1990
LAT (DEG N)     10.3  10.5  10.7  10.9  11.1  11.6  12.6  13.7  15.5  17.7  20.6  23.8  27.0
LONG(DEG W)     35.5  36.6  37.6  38.4  39.3  40.6  41.3  41.5  41.1  40.2  39.1  37.7  35.8
STM SPEED (KT)     9    11     9     9     8     6     6     7    11    14    16    18    18
HEAT CONTENT      27    25    24    22    18    13     9     7     6     9    21    15     9

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/  8      CX,CY:  -7/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  537  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   9.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  96.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   6.  11.  17.  22.  26.  29.  31.  32.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   3.   2.   0.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   7.   9.  10.  10.   9.   8.   8.   7.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -8.  -9.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   2.   4.   5.   5.   8.  12.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   1.   1.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           5.  11.  17.  22.  34.  43.  51.  55.  55.  53.  55.  60.

   ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932015 INVEST     09/13/15  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.9
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  13.3 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.7
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   9.8 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  65.8 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 111.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.5
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  23.2 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  10.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  92.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.2
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    28% is   2.3 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    13% is   1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     7% is   1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     5% is   1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932015 INVEST     09/13/15  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932015 INVEST     09/13/2015  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

[Hammy]

GFS out to 138 hours, significantly weaker than last run, 15mb difference in pressure (965 vs 980)

[Alyono]

this is likely the next hurricane

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm not surprised the Euro is backing off on development (and I'll believe a weak Euro solution over a strong GFS one given the latter's equally terrible history) as this system is really a mess at the surface. It seems to be a very elongated trough, with winds simply flowing directly from one low pressure area to another. I don't see anything beyond just being strong ITCZ activity.

Why would a system's current structure preclude eventual significant strengthening? The GFS doesn't say this will be a major hurricane tomorrow.

As Alyono said, this is likely our next hurricane, and it has at least some potential to be our next major hurricane.

[Hammy]

I'm not surprised the Euro is backing off on development (and I'll believe a weak Euro solution over a strong GFS one given the latter's equally terrible history) as this system is really a mess at the surface. It seems to be a very elongated trough, with winds simply flowing directly from one low pressure area to another. I don't see anything beyond just being strong ITCZ activity.

Why would a system's current structure preclude eventual significant strengthening? The GFS doesn't say this will be a major hurricane

Very often the models have difficulty with less organized systems and have a bad tendency to overdevelop them. And far too often I've seen systems that are forecast to develop when they are in a setup like this but don't--there are two very strong waves fairly close together and that generally leads to neither developing since one can't get organized while being so close to the other.

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

I'm not surprised the Euro is backing off on development (and I'll believe a weak Euro solution over a strong GFS one given the latter's equally terrible history) as this system is really a mess at the surface. It seems to be a very elongated trough, with winds simply flowing directly from one low pressure area to another. I don't see anything beyond just being strong ITCZ activity.

Why would a system's current structure preclude eventual significant strengthening? The GFS doesn't say this will be a major hurricane

Very often the models have difficulty with less organized systems and have a bad tendency to overdevelop them. And far too often I've seen systems that are forecast to develop when they are in a setup like this but don't--there are two very strong waves fairly close together and that generally leads to neither developing since one can't get organized while being so close to the other.

Interresting point of vue Hammy .

[gatorcane]

There is a big difference between the ECMWF and GFS here as the ECMWF for the past couple of runs shows no development of this wave while the GFS eventually develops this into a hurricane.

Look at the big difference in the 5-day forecast between these two models:

GFS with a hurricane recurving:


ECMWF with a 1012MB low moving more WNW with the low-level flow

[Hammy]

GFS back to strong Cat 2 at 144 hours (but seems weaker with later system)

[cycloneye]

Models have reversed on intensity for now.Even SHIP that had a hurricane stays as a 60kt storm.