ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

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LarryWx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#21 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 13, 2015 3:14 pm

:uarrow: By THU, models suggest the most active part of the Gulf convectionwise would be NE Gulf fwiw (i.e., not from 94L). So, IF 94L is going to become a TC (very low chance imo), it would seemingly need to do it by Tue.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2015 6:42 pm

Up to 20%-30%

Shower activity remains disorganized in association with an area of
low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for
development of this low during the next couple of days while it
moves little. After a couple of days, a slow west-northwestward
motion toward Mexico is expected and land interaction should limit
development. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
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#23 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:39 am

I doubt the recon will be flown into this weak disturbance, it appears it doesn't have a well defined closed circulation, if at all, shear continues to push the convection east of the vorticity.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#24 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:47 am

No Recon.

Shower activity has changed little in association with an area of
low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while it moves little. After a couple of days, a slow
west-northwestward motion toward Mexico is expected and land
interaction should limit development. The Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft originally scheduled to investigate the
system Monday afternoon has been canceled.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#25 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2015 12:51 pm

Widespread cloudiness and shower activity continues over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with an area of surface
low pressure. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next day or two while it moves little. After a
couple of days, a slow westward or west-northwestward motion toward
Mexico is expected development will become less likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#26 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 14, 2015 3:27 pm

94L looks to have gotten a little better organized this afternoon per latest ASCAT, it is still having some tough time with the windshear.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#27 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:36 pm

An area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible before
it moves inland over Mexico in a day or so. Regardless of
development, this system could produce locally heavy rain over
portions of eastern Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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#28 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 14, 2015 9:37 pm

You can see the low-level swirl just off the coast of Mexico around 22N, 97W but the shear continues to wreak havoc.

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#29 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 14, 2015 10:16 pm

No kidding, watch the pop-up thunderstorms over Mexico mature and have their anvils ripped east. Easy way to see the shear right there.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#30 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 15, 2015 6:05 am

This thing just popped....looks like an early Gabrielle...Or TD 6 from the same year 95
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#31 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 15, 2015 7:02 am

Convection really has become a bit.more concentrated near the low level swirl early this morning. Shear was ridiculously high yesterday. Observing at how the convection is snuggled.closer to the LLC this morning, I wonder has the shear slackened just a bit. I have not yet looked at the shear analysis this morning, however looking at the convection bloosoming around 94L right now, you can certainly see that the environment seems a tad different than yesterday down there imo. This may have a chance to br a TD or minimal TS before landfalling on the Northern Mexico coast.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Sep 15, 2015 7:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#32 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 15, 2015 7:14 am

Yea, pretty apparent the shear has slackened a bit. By the eyeballs I'd say around 15kts.
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#33 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 15, 2015 7:45 am

Down to 0/0.

A low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has moved
inland near Tampico, Mexico. Although tropical cyclone development
is no longer expected due to land interaction, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible over portions of eastern Mexico during the
next couple of days as the system moves farther inland. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#34 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:44 pm

Finally something in the Gulf was making a run at it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#35 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:55 pm

I know seems like thankfully El Nino is squashing things this year
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#36 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:57 pm

Still thinking something may get going east of this Blob
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#37 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:09 pm

Surprised they dropped this altogether with all the convection and the apparent mid level rotation still evident to the East. Anyone notice the LL spin that has moved NW toward the TX/MX border area?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#38 Postby xironman » Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:28 pm

There is a bit of mid-level spin offshore, nothing at the surface.

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#39 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:32 pm

might be something to keep an eye on if the shear shall slacken might even relocate under the MLC in that case

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Re:

#40 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:35 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:might be something to keep an eye on if the shear shall slacken might even relocate under the MLC in that case

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Not if the surface trough is way to the west along the Mexican coast a low pressure will form under the MLC, most likely the MLC will die out during the night.
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