ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

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ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#1 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 13, 2015 11:36 am

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                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL942015  09/13/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    23    25    26    28    29    30    30    32    35    41    47
V (KT) LAND       20    22    23    25    26    28    29    30    30    32    28    27    27
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    20    20    20    20    20    20    20    21    24    26    26
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        31    29    28    26    25    23    22    16    17     9    12     2     5
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     0    -1    -3    -1     1     5     2     4     0     6     2     1
SHEAR DIR        275   277   273   277   282   274   309   284   329   331     9    15     6
SST (C)         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  29.9  29.8  29.6  29.3  29.7  30.2  30.5
POT. INT. (KT)   166   165   164   165   166   166   164   162   160   155   163   171   171
ADJ. POT. INT.   143   141   140   142   144   144   141   138   139   138   146   157   162
200 MB T (C)   -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C)       7     8     9     8     7    10     9    11    10    14    11    15    11
700-500 MB RH     61    59    60    63    65    66    63    58    55    50    51    50    51
MODEL VTX (KT)     4     5     5     5     6     4     5     4     4  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR   -33   -41   -43   -42   -38   -31   -32    -1    -6     2    -2   -10    13
200 MB DIV        -1     3    22    36    21    29    26    13   -34   -17    -5    11     6
700-850 TADV       0     3     2     3     2     6     5     2     0     0    -3    -3    -1
LAND (KM)        123   114   106   121   136   184   224   211   142    10  -153  -347  -297
LAT (DEG N)     22.5  22.4  22.3  22.4  22.5  23.1  23.7  24.1  24.0  23.9  23.6  23.5  23.5
LONG(DEG W)     96.5  96.5  96.5  96.4  96.3  96.0  95.6  95.7  96.4  97.7  99.3 101.2 103.0
STM SPEED (KT)     2     1     0     1     2     3     3     2     5     7     8     9     8
HEAT CONTENT      36    35    34    36    37    43    57    61    46    16     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/  3      CX,CY:   2/ -1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  15            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  608  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  21.1 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  70.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   5.  12.  19.  24.  29.  33.  36.  38.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     2.   4.   5.   6.   5.   2.  -2.  -5.  -7.  -7.  -5.  -5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   3.   5.   6.   8.   9.  10.  10.  12.  15.  21.  27.

   ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942015 INVEST     09/13/15  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  27.8 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  21.1 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  67.6 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 121.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.5
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  35.6 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  16.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  64.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    15% is   1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     8% is   1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942015 INVEST     09/13/15  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942015 INVEST     09/13/2015  12 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
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#2 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 13, 2015 11:48 am

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#3 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Sep 13, 2015 11:56 am

Wow, that was extremely quick to designate.this 94L. But, even tbough conditions are hostole currently, things could get interesting by the mid-latter portions of this week down in BOC/Western GOM region.
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Re:

#4 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 13, 2015 12:10 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Wow, that was extremely quick to designate.this 94L. But, even tbough conditions are hostole currently, things could get interesting by the mid-latter portions of this week down in BOC/Western GOM region.

Isn't 94L supposed to move into Mexico on Tuesday?
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Re: Re:

#5 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 13, 2015 12:40 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Wow, that was extremely quick to designate.this 94L. But, even tbough conditions are hostole currently, things could get interesting by the mid-latter portions of this week down in BOC/Western GOM region.

Isn't 94L supposed to move into Mexico on Tuesday?


yes but the ships models is keeping it offshore until Thursday so who really knows at this point but I do expect recon to be flown in Tuesday morning to find out intensities and whether to issue watches and warnings

Edit: Recon Monday

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#6 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 13, 2015 12:47 pm

The ECMWF is running...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#7 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 13, 2015 12:50 pm

well the 12zGFS does basically nothing with this

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#8 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 13, 2015 1:00 pm

Looks like the ECMWF moves it into Mexico in 48 hours with no development.
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Re:

#9 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Sep 13, 2015 1:07 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks like the ECMWF moves it into Mexico in 48 hours with no development.


Looking at weatherbell it looks like it moves it to Tampico by this afternoon and stalls it thru Tuesday midday.
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#10 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 13, 2015 5:43 pm

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#11 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Sep 13, 2015 8:48 pm

The almost always aggressive HWRF deepens 94L to 1004mb (during the run it has it as low as 1002mb) and makes landfall in NE Mexico by late evening on Tuesday..

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Re:

#12 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 13, 2015 9:20 pm

Rgv20 wrote:The almost always aggressive HWRF deepens 94L to 1004mb (during the run it has it as low as 1002mb) and makes landfall in NE Mexico by late evening on Tuesday..


I still stand by the model generally being more accurate than others, the only one it really blew it on this year was Erika (and all of them did, with Euro/GFS showing Cat 4s on several runs)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#13 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Mon Sep 14, 2015 2:57 pm

Models have really struggled with the El Nino
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