ATL: IDA - Models

[gatorcane]

GFS back to a major at 948MB:

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF continues to depict a complex interaction with Ida and a trough which results in a baroclinically-enhanced storm with strengthening though the forecast period and a 987MB system by hour 96.

[Hammy]

Model runs are starting to remind me of Ophelia in 2011 where you had a highly sheared storm weaken, interact with a trough, stall out, and then strengthen fairly quickly as it moved north.

[YoshiMike]

Think there's a chance if this turning and hitting the northeast US? I dont know how to find model sites

[Hammy]

Think there's a chance if this turning and hitting the northeast US? I dont know how to find model sites

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
Main (non-fee) site that's posted here for the model runs.

As far as the track, every indication given by the models so far is that it will likely stall for some time and then be picked up by a trough and flung out to sea. The only place that -might- be impacted (and even then a fairly low chance at this point) is Newfoundland.

[Alyono]

MU has this threatening Nova Scotia and Newfoundland

[Hammy]

Euro not only dropped major hurricane status but also shorter-term hurricane status. I'm guessing this just stays at 45-50 intensity through the duration and dissipates in a few days once it runs into more shear.

[Alyono]

Euro not only dropped major hurricane status but also shorter-term hurricane status. I'm guessing this just stays at 45-50 intensity through the duration and dissipates in a few days once it runs into more shear.

what euro are you looking at? I'm seeing a cane or a strong TS from days 6-10

[Hammy]

Euro not only dropped major hurricane status but also shorter-term hurricane status. I'm guessing this just stays at 45-50 intensity through the duration and dissipates in a few days once it runs into more shear.

what euro are you looking at? I'm seeing a cane or a strong TS from days 6-10

Cat 1 was shown within 96 hours in earlier runs, now it's showing barely TS intensity through 120 hours, and after Erika (as well as Euro's several Cat 2-3 model storms) I'm discarding anything beyond five days.

[Hammy]

If I'm reading into the model run correctly the GFS appears to forecast Ida's center to redevelop to the east within 48 hours or so.

[Hammy]

Euro showing significant weakening beyond 72 hours.

[Hammy]

I see the models today have returned to reality in showing a continually weak system through the runs.

[Hammy]

:uarrow: Hoping to track a long lived fish here and you keep hosing it down are you a firefighter.

If GFS is right we could still get a long tracker, even if weak, and reach 30 ACE.

Edit: Interestingly the Euro from several days ago may have nailed this, at least the first part of the run, if the UK model plays out. The appearance on that model looks very much subtropical.

[gatorcane]

Look at all the models that are showing it heading west now on the 00Z guidance, with the ECMWF first showing this in the 12Z run. Compare that to the 18Z (second graphic). Throw out the GFDI and NVGI (NAVGEM) as they are not good models and the entire suite looks nothing like the 18Z. What will the NHC track do at 11pmEST I wonder?

00Z (latest):


18Z (previous):

[Hurricaneman]

If the models keep shifting west maybe Bermuda may need to watch this in case it gets farther west than inticapated

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[Alyono]

MU now dissipates Ida in a few days. That solution may make the most sense given the very destructive mid level shear it will be encountering during the next several days

[tolakram]

So in 24 hours the 0Z Euro shows Ida hundreds of miles east of the current position and significantly stronger.



At the end of the run it's strong and headed NW.



Every run is a little different.

[Alyono]

the entire 0Z ECMWF run is not worth anything. Everything looks bizarre world wide in terms of the TC solutions

[NDG]

Don't forget that the Euro last weekend was forecasting Ida to become a major Hurricane this weekend, so anything past its 5 day range forecast is up to suspicion.

[Hammy]

Euro finally joined reality and shows barely a TD through 168 hours.