ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[Riptide]

Over very warm waters but enveloped by dry air at multiple levels. 500mb setup is screaming potential, been like that the entire season.

[cycloneye]

Exposed LLC seen clearly with no convection close to it.

[OuterBanker]

A complicated convoluted mess.

My best guess is a Dennis the Menace movement without any development.

Here is an excerpt from this morning’s 10 am Morehead City NWS explanation:

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW HAS A MEDIUM (40%) PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS (PLEASE SEE THE LATEST OUTLOOKS
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER). THE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT ALONG THE COAST. A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN JET
STREAM WILL PROPEL A DECAYING COLD FRONT INTO NC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE
THE FORECAST AREA SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS GIVEN THE VARIED MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK ON THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND HOW MUCH INTERACTION IT WILL
HAVE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE ECMWF WAS MORE
PROGRESSIVE EJECTING THE COASTAL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES MORE INTERACTION WITH THE CUTOFF LOW AND
RETROGRADES THE SURFACE LOW TOWARDS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MID NEXT
WEEK. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS INDICATES A WETTER SOLUTION THEN THE
ECMWF, THE ECMWF IS INDICATING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AS THE
REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW. THUS WILL
NEED TO BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE SITUATION
BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

[NDG]

Time for the NHC to start bringing down the chances of subtropical development, the shear is relentless, now drier air is over the weak surface low.

[OuterBanker]

Time for the NHC to start bringing down the chances of subtropical development, the shear is relentless, now drier air is over the weak surface low.

Agreed. Not even the CMC develops it.

[cycloneye]

Of course the squadron will not go on Saturday.

TASKING REQUIREMENTS FOR 19/1800Z AND 20/1130Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 19/1200Z

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles east of the
northeast Florida coast continues to produce disorganized cloudiness
and thunderstorms well to the east and south of the center.
Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally
conducive for this low to acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next few days while it moves slowly
northeastward off the southeast coast of the United States. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system tomorrow, if necessary. For more information on this
low, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[supercane]

Finally recognizing reality by lowering development chances.

[cycloneye]

The % continue to decrease.

A broad area of low pressure located about 275 miles off the
northeast coast of Florida is gradually moving toward the northeast
away from the southeastern United States. This low has not shown any
indications of acquiring tropical or subtropical characteristics,
and the environmental conditions are becoming a little less
favorable for development. However, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is still scheduled to investigate this system
tomorrow, if necessary. For more information on this low, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%.

A broad area of low pressure is located about 325 miles east of the
northeast coast of Florida. This low is not showing any signs
of acquiring tropical or subtropical characteristics, and the
reconnaissance aircraft mission scheduled for this afternoon has
been canceled. Environmental conditions are expected to remain
unfavorable for significant development while this low moves slowly
northeastward away from the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[xironman]

If it wasn't for the CMC this would be the most boring season ever. It keeps the remnants around for 10 days and then blows up a 974 low