EPAC: INVEST 92E

[Frank2]

Better chance of it crossing the Isthmus on it's present NW track (if it crosses the middle of the Isthmus - mountains to the east and west of that region)...

Frank

[cycloneye]

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with a broad area of low pressure located just south of
the coast of Guatemala. However, further development of this low
appears unlikely due to interaction with land while it moves slowly
northward. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, this system
will continue to produce heavy rains across portions of southern
Guatemala, El Salvador, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days, along with gusty winds along coastal portions of those areas.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Yellow Evan]

CMC and the UKMET models still develop this, but the GFS and ECMWF do not. Still it looks decent right now, so it wouldn't shock me if this became a TD/weak TS. Most reliable guidance either mergers this with 92E (but they don't initialize on this very well) except for the CMC and UKMET.

[cycloneye]

A small low pressure system is producing a concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms that extend about 200 miles offshore the
coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. The low is expected to
move little or drift westward during the next couple of days, and
development appears unlikely due to its proximity to land and
unfavorable upper-level winds. Regardless of tropical cyclone
development, this system could produce heavy rains across portions
of El Salvador and southern Guatemala during the next few days.
These rains have the potential to cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Extratropical94]

The concentrated area of thunderstorms associated with a small low
pressure system offshore of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador
has diminished this morning, and the area of low pressure appears to
be dissipating. Upper-level winds are not conducive for
development, and tropical cyclone formation from this system is
unlikely. Moisture related to this disturbance could still produce
locally heavy rains across portions of El Salvador and southern
Guatemala during the next day or so, with the rains possibly causing
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent