ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[Weatherwatcher98]

guys because its close to home thats why, lets just be realistic here the most we can get out of this is a weak weak weak trop storm but this will just be rain, so just deal with it, I don't know why people get bad when they say something isn't going to develop, the thing looks like a sheared mess......lets just all use common sense here.....everyone should get along let hope florida doesn't get to much rain with the recent floods

Not giving anyone any grief just trying to learn in this forum and give some feedback oh and I am a weather nerd. I thought that is what this board was for. I guess I will go back to lurking and keeping my thoughts and questions to myself

[Extratropical94]

Recon Scheduled for tomorrow as well. If this has no chance why??

I guess the missions are tasked so in case something develops they have the staff and the aircraft ready for departure. It's easier and also less expensive to schedule something and then cancel it than trying to start a mission from scratch with no one informed and prepared.

[caneman]

25 and 86 looks suspect to me. Well see what the 2 o'clock update says.

[wxman57]

There won't be any recon tomorrow, as it will be inland by this time tomorrow. There's nothing out there now, not even the weak swirl that was evident yesterday. Nothing to see here, folks, move along...

[tropicwatch]

Not weak minded, may the force be with you

[NDG]

There won't be any recon tomorrow, as it will be inland by this time tomorrow. There's nothing out there now, not even the weak swirl that was evident yesterday. Nothing to see here, folks, move along...

Hopefully you will not get insulted like I was this morning

[caneman]

YoU weren't insulted by me ndg nor anyone else from what I could tell. You insisted there wasn't an llc and there was. Plain and simple and was verified by nhc. No one said it was going to develop. But, on a positive note, you did say it wasnt going to develop early on. So 1 for 2, not bad Wxman57, are you calling for bones?

[NDG]

[tropicwatch]

Well the Hurricane Hunters are on their way. We shall soon see what 99L is all about.

[drezee]

With all due respect, I have to differ with most opinions here. This is a complicated system indeed. To say there is no chance is almost laughable though. We have a surface convergence in the SW quad of an outflow jet. It would take very little from this to pop. I mean this setup can pop in 12 hours. We have seen it before. If you look closely, outflow is moving to the west and expanding. I would "not" write this thing off until it got onshore. We have enough buoys to tell us what is happening though. If it pops you will see the following things happen...

1. 42003 pressure would lower quickly and SW to SSW winds would prevail
2. Convection would pop within 150nm of the buoy to the NE
3. pressure readings would become lower in the Eastern GOM than the Western
4. SE winds would begin to consistently go above 25kts from the SE in the NE GOM

[crimi481]

could be the low center moved east- tucking under highest tops

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-bd.html

[drezee]

BTW, you are starting to see lightning down there near 42003...

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

[NDG]

ASCAT from a couple hours ago shows that the circulation remains weak and elongated south to north, near 26N and 86.8W, closed.

[ronjon]

guys because its close to home thats why, lets just be realistic here the most we can get out of this is a weak weak weak trop storm but this will just be rain, so just deal with it, I don't know why people get bad when they say something isn't going to develop, the thing looks like a sheared mess......lets just all use common sense here.....everyone should get along let hope florida doesn't get to much rain with the recent floods

Not giving anyone any grief just trying to learn in this forum and give some feedback oh and I am a weather nerd. I thought that is what this board was for. I guess I will go back to lurking and keeping my thoughts and questions to myself

Weatherwatcher98 - don't get discouraged. Please keep posting. You've posted some good observations.

[ronjon]

BTW, you are starting to see lightning down there near 42003...

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

Cool site drezee! Didn't know it existed.

[ronjon]

Heavy storms marching toward St-Pete and Sarasota. Appears that NWS Tampa Bay's concern was justified in posting their flood watch.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[otowntiger]

Looks like the bulk of the heavy stuff may stay off shore. But I could be wrong.

I'm no meteorologist, don't make plans based on my observations.

[NDG]

So far recon is finding SSW winds west of the vorticity.

[Hammy]

So far recon is finding SSW winds west of the vorticity.

Likely associated with the front--ASCAT showed a closed low but the northerly winds were in a fairly small area near and under the convection.

[NDG]

So far recon is finding SSW winds west of the vorticity.

Likely associated with the front--ASCAT showed a closed low but the northerly winds were in a fairly small area near and under the convection.

I just realized that the recon is still flying at around 15k feet so those winds are at the mid levels, the plane has not descended yet.