ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[Ntxw]

It doesn't take a tropical low to make havoc correct. The problem lies in the persistent wet pattern as NDG said not any tropical named systems. The issue is the El Nino, a stalled front can dump just as much rain. And by winter it will only continue and possible severe weather.

This system has been well followed and behaved much as expected. Monsoonal fetch from a pattern that has happened a few times this summer. Shear forecasts have been very good if not underestimating at times. In a few weeks the eastern trough is likely going to shut things down in the basin if not sooner as ridging over the NE US migrates westward and fronts dive into the gulf. Unless something extra-tropical or maybe far far southern Carib. But tropical waves are about over with the end of African waves.

[MGC]

Thanks shear! We can use some rain here on the Mississippi Coast......MGC

[Weatherwatcher98]

It doesn't take a tropical low to make havoc correct. The problem lies in the persistent wet pattern as NDG said not any tropical named systems. The issue is the El Nino, a stalled front can dump just as much rain. And by winter it will only continue and possible severe weather.

This system has been well followed and behaved much as expected. Monsoonal fetch from a pattern that has happened a few times this summer. Shear forecasts have been very good if not underestimating at times. In a few weeks the eastern trough is likely going to shut things down in the basin if not sooner as ridging over the NE US migrates westward and fronts dive into the gulf. Unless something extra-tropical or maybe far far southern Carib. But tropical waves are about over with the end of African waves.

Agreed> As you said the southern Caribbean is the Area to watch. October is when Florida gets affected by these systems.

[caneman]

It doesn't take a tropical low to make havoc correct. The problem lies in the persistent wet pattern as NDG said not any tropical named systems. The issue is the El Nino, a stalled front can dump just as much rain. And by winter it will only continue and possible severe weather.

This system has been well followed and behaved much as expected. Monsoonal fetch from a pattern that has happened a few times this summer. Shear forecasts have been very good if not underestimating at times. In a few weeks the eastern trough is likely going to shut things down in the basin if not sooner as ridging over the NE US migrates westward and fronts dive into the gulf. Unless something extra-tropical or maybe far far southern Carib. But tropical waves are about over with the end of African waves.

mostly correct.,although these stalled fronts have also coincided with seveal tropical invest or waves thereby increasing rainfall many fold.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like there might be a low just emerging into the gulf north of Yucatan.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-88&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15


http://wxug.us/1r888

[Frank P]

Looks like there might be a low just emerging into the gulf north of Yucatan.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-88&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15


http://wxug.us/1r888

Good catch, need a few more loops to see what direction it is going, and how bad that shear is going to play havoc on the little naked low, if it even survives...

[Sanibel]

Just in time to be savaged by the shear.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Looks like there might be a low just emerging into the gulf north of Yucatan.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-88&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15


http://wxug.us/1r888

Good catch, need a few more loops to see what direction it is going, and how bad that shear is going to play havoc on the little naked low, if it even survives...

Moisture from this is well displaced to the east. Check out the "tail" down in the Caribbean. North or Northeast seems to be the movement..looking at the previous low position. Either way area's North and East of the "center" are going to be in for some Copious Rainfall amounts.

[wxman57]

There's a small eddy just north of the Yucatan (red crosshairs). This disturbance really won't have too much of a chance in such high shear.

[Extratropical94]

1. An area of low pressure is located over the southern Gulf of
Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. This system and
a broad trough of low pressure over the western Gulf of
Mexico are producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea
northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are
expected to be only marginally conducive for development while this
system moves northward toward the northern Gulf Coast during the
next couple of days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over
portions of the northern Gulf Coast and southeastern United States
during the next few days. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft that was scheduled for today was canceled, but another
mission is scheduled for tomorrow, if necessary. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service and products from your local National
Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Dean4Storms]

There's a small eddy just north of the Yucatan (red crosshairs). This disturbance really won't have too much of a chance in such high shear.

Looks like more than a small eddy, that looks like the center of the Low! Everything from over the Yucatan, the Channel and Gulf is swirling into it at low level.

Have to keep an eye on this, more organized than I would have expected. If it can fire convection even on just it's eastern periphery it could slowly develop, seen that before!! It's just small enough like Danny was to be missed by models!!

[NDG]

To me it looks more like a dying eddie, very weak, caught in an outflow boundary, there's even another little eddie just to the north of it. Windshear is analyzed near 30 knots on top of it, way too strong, and forecasted to increase even more as it heads north.

[Dean4Storms]

:uarrow: To me it looks more like a dying eddie, very weak, caught in an outflow boundary, there's even another little eddie just to the north of it. Windshear is analyzed near 30 knots on top of it, way too strong, and forecasted to increase even more as it heads north.

You don't see all the LL clouds over the Yucatan circulating now Northward into it?

I've never seen an eddy with that much of a circulation, usually they look like the one you are talking about north of it!

[Dean4Storms]

Even what I would normally call outflows to the NW and West of it are rotating in toward it.

[Dean4Storms]

Just have to keep an eye on it. Like you said NDG, shear is rather high down there so it would take what I said about it and that being convection popping over it or at least on the eastern periphery of it.

[NDG]

:uarrow: To me it looks more like a dying eddie, very weak, caught in an outflow boundary, there's even another little eddie just to the north of it. Windshear is analyzed near 30 knots on top of it, way too strong, and forecasted to increase even more as it heads north.

You don't see all the LL clouds over the Yucatan circulating now Northward into it?

I've never seen an eddy with that much of a circulation, usually they look like the one you are talking about north of it!

Yes I see that, but that's all part of the broad surface low cyclonic circulation, the LLC and or eddie looks very weak.
ASCAT-B pass from just a few hours ago is below, I know it misses the area where the little circulation is located, but if you look in the southern GOM is just a very broad cyclonic circulation over all.

[Dean4Storms]

:uarrow: To me it looks more like a dying eddie, very weak, caught in an outflow boundary, there's even another little eddie just to the north of it. Windshear is analyzed near 30 knots on top of it, way too strong, and forecasted to increase even more as it heads north.

You don't see all the LL clouds over the Yucatan circulating now Northward into it?

I've never seen an eddy with that much of a circulation, usually they look like the one you are talking about north of it!

Yes I see that, but that's all part of the broad surface low cyclonic circulation, the LLC and or eddie looks very weak.
ASCAT-B pass from just a few hours ago is below, I know it misses the area where the little circulation is located, but if you look in the southern GOM is just a very broad cyclonic circulation over all.

Yea, it looks very small. We'll just have to watch it and we'll know in a few hours.

[EquusStorm]

Just can't see much developing with shear as high as it is... though stranger things have happened. I don't really care though because this is probably gonna bring pretty heavy rain to this parched central Gulf region either way... and I am very tired of having to come home from work and spend an hour watering the plants because the ground is bone-dry and it has not wanted to rain here in quite a long while. Bring it on please, and if the pattern changes and this tropical convection misses us, I am going to hit my head against the wall repeatedly.

Still kinda surprised it looked as good as it did yesterday given the environmental conditions. Also surprised they planned to send recon into it. Guess I will cross my fingers that something will happen just to boost our pathetic storm count this year but not too hopeful.

[LarryWx]

Just can't see much developing with shear as high as it is... though stranger things have happened. I don't really care though because this is probably gonna bring pretty heavy rain to this parched central Gulf region either way... and I am very tired of having to come home from work and spend an hour watering the plants because the ground is bone-dry and it has not wanted to rain here in quite a long while. Bring it on please, and if the pattern changes and this tropical convection misses us, I am going to hit my head against the wall repeatedly.

Still kinda surprised it looked as good as it did yesterday given the environmental conditions. Also surprised they planned to send recon into it. Guess I will cross my fingers that something will happen just to boost our pathetic storm count this year but not too hopeful.

Nov-Mar climo for very strong El Nino favors above normal rainfall for the Gulf Coast region. So, that will likely help then although I don't know if you're near the coast.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop showing exposed LLC moving N just north of the Yucatan: