ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Looks like a huge slug of moisture heading towards peninsula Florida, saved loop as 99L continues to expand:

[NDG]

18z SHIPS analyzes shear over it at 23 knots, it shows a steady increasing shear over it during the next 72 hrs, up to 53 knots by the time it approaches the northern gulf coat. So in another words, this is as organized as it will look over the next 72 hrs.

[gatorcane]

Pretty good consensus on model tracks.
http://tropicwatch.info/storm_99.gif

The new ECMWF run is a good deal east of those tracks with the low turning NE then ENE north of Tampa tracking over Cedar Key, FL.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Most if not all the weather is always east of a sheared system. Going to be wet for Florida Penisula in the coming days

[gatorcane]

Here is a good vis loop from the Navy NRL site:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

[Weatherwatcher98]

Here is a good vis loop from the Navy:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

Interesting. Maybe Euro is on to something and other the models will follow suit

[Dean4Storms]

18z SHIPS analyzes shear over it at 23 knots, it shows a steady increasing shear over it during the next 72 hrs, up to 53 knots by the time it approaches the northern gulf coat. So in another words, this is as organized as it will look over the next 72 hrs.

Yea, shear is already eating it alive!

[Weatherwatcher98]

18z SHIPS analyzes shear over it at 23 knots, it shows a steady increasing shear over it during the next 72 hrs, up to 53 knots by the time it approaches the northern gulf coat. So in another words, this is as organized as it will look over the next 72 hrs.

Yea, shear is already eating it alive!

Yeah but even sheared systems can dump copious amounts of rain. Western coast of Florida was hammered by remnants of Ericka and ripples of energy moving east before her. Flooding back in August is still in our minds in SW and Central Florida. Does not take an Organized Low to wreak havoc.

[Dean4Storms]

18z SHIPS analyzes shear over it at 23 knots, it shows a steady increasing shear over it during the next 72 hrs, up to 53 knots by the time it approaches the northern gulf coat. So in another words, this is as organized as it will look over the next 72 hrs.

Yea, shear is already eating it alive!

Yeah but even sheared systems can dump copious amounts of rain. Western coast of Florida was hammered by remnants of Ericka and ripples of energy moving east before her. Flooding back in August is still in our minds in SW and Central Florida. Does not take an Organized Low to wreak havoc.

I don't think either one of us are questioning that. We are pointing out the struggle to organize into a Tropical Cyclone with so much shear!

[Weatherwatcher98]

I agree with that maybe a depression a weak Tropical/Sub tropical storm at best.

[rolltide]

On visible satellite it appears the low level coc is over the eastern Yucatan moving due north. Shear is blowing the cloud tops off to the eastern side of the coc.

[Frank P]

On visible satellite it appears the low level coc is over the eastern Yucatan moving due north. Shear is blowing the cloud tops off to the eastern side of the coc.

Yep, looks north to me too and boy it is getting a pounding from the shear.... my guess that it will eventually go north for a while then progress to a more NNE-NE motion after a day or two.. my untrained non-professional humble opinion only... still hope for some much needed rain out of this early next week on the MS coast... much needed

[Hammy]

Is it possible this ends up being a hybrid system like the early October systems of 1992/1994?

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds
over portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico, and the Yucatan Peninsula. This system is expected
to move northward at about 10 mph into the southern Gulf of Mexico
on Sunday and should then move more quickly northward or
northeastward as it interacts with an upper-level low near the
Texas coast. While upper-level winds are only expected to be
marginally conducive, there is some potential for this system to
become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days before it
reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this disturbance is likely to produce locally heavy
rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf Coast and southeastern
United States early next week. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow, if
necessary. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products from
your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[CrazyC83]

Is it possible this ends up being a hybrid system like the early October systems of 1992/1994?

Lee in 2011 might be another analog.

[FlaStormFanatic]

Pretty good consensus on model tracks.

That's for sure.

[CDO62]

My daughter is leaving on a cruise out of Tampa on Monday evening (9/28) headed for Grand Cayman. What type of weather conditions would be expected in the Gulf at that time based on the current forecast?

TIA.....Dave

[NDG]

My daughter is leaving on a cruise out of Tampa on Monday evening (9/28) headed for Grand Cayman. What type of weather conditions would be expected in the Gulf at that time based on the current forecast?

TIA.....Dave

Some rough seas in the eastern GOM into the NW Caribbean with some heavy rains at time but nothing extreme.

[floridasun78]

if move ne you think south fl may more rain forecast now and look big area storm south of west tip Cuba may pass very near keywest

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 said central Florida should be getting a lot of rain.