ATL: INVEST 90L- Discussion

[WPBWeather]

Don't understand why they think reformation is likely when it looks like crap.

She took GREAT exception to being called Bones too early.

[cycloneye]

Thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association
with a non-tropical area of low pressure centered over the central
Atlantic about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for the low to obtain more
tropical characteristics, and a tropical cyclone is likely to form
within a couple of days while the low moves erratically
northeastward then northward. This system is expected to produce
gale-force winds overnight and additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[northjaxpro]

90L moving northeast currently. Looks much improved today with outflow improving and banding is now occuring around the LLC. Looks like we may get Kate possibly before the end of this week. But should it develop, this will stay well out over the open Atlantic. Also, with the development of 90L today, it could be among the chief factors to allow a weakness for Joaquin to pull into later this week and keep him out to sea, with him hopefully missing Bermuda on his way out.

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%-80%


Thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association
with a non-tropical area of low pressure centered over the central
Atlantic about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for the low to obtain more
tropical characteristics, and a tropical cyclone is likely to form
within a couple of days while the low moves erratically
northeastward then northward. This system is expected to produce
gale-force winds overnight and additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Extratropical94]

Now at gale force.

90L INVEST 151002 0000 26.2N 54.0W ATL 35 1003

[Extratropical94]

A non-tropical area of low pressure centered over the central
Atlantic about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda is producing winds
to near gale-force to the north of the center. The circulation of
the low has become better defined, and showers and thunderstorms
are showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics during the next day or two while it moves
generally northward. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

A non-tropical area of low pressure over the central Atlantic about
850 miles southeast of Bermuda is producing winds of gale force.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization,
and environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for the
low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the
next day or so while it moves generally northward. Upper-level
winds are forecast to be too strong for further development by
Sunday. Information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[EquusStorm]

Visible images seem to show a fairly decent low level swirl... naked, albeit, but still close to the convection.

[EquusStorm]

Down slightly to 70/70. Still saying tropical cyclogenesis is likely before it starts being blown apart but really it is starting to run low on time to do so.

[Extratropical94]

A non-tropical area of low pressure over the central Atlantic about
850 miles southeast of Bermuda is producing winds of gale force.
Although shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased since
yesterday, environmental conditions are still forecast to be
conducive for the low to acquire more tropical characteristics
during the next day or so. The system is likely to become a
tropical cyclone before upper-level winds, enhanced by Hurricane
Joaquin, are forecast to be too strong for further development by
Sunday. Information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[Extratropical94]

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure over the central Atlantic about
850 miles east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce gale-force
winds, but the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is
displaced well to the east of the center. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for the low to acquire more tropical
characteristics for about another day. After that time, strong
upper-level winds associated with Hurricane Joaquin should prevent
development of this system. Information on this low can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[EquusStorm]

Couple bursts of convection this morning but definitely appears less robust.