Has some potential per BOM Tropical Cyclone Outlook:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Tuesday 22 December 2015
for the period until midnight CST Friday 25 December 2015.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
At 12:30 pm CST on Tuesday 22 December a tropical low, 1005 hPa, was located
over the western Carpentaria District of the Northern Territory, near Daly
Waters. The low is expected to move slowly northwest and be located over the
northern Top End during Wednesday and Thursday. The tropical low is then
expected to move towards the southeast to be near the southwest Gulf of
Carpentaria coast on Friday. At this stage it is uncertain whether the low will
be located over water or land, but if it is over water, there is a chance it
will be developing into a tropical cyclone.
Meanwhile, the monsoon is expected to remain active over the Northern Region
this week with heavy rainfall and squally winds.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
The tropical low is expected to remain near the southern Gulf of Carpentaria
during the weekend with an ongoing chance that the tropical low will develop
into a tropical cyclone. It remains uncertain whether the tropical low will be
located over water or the land.
NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).
Earlier JTWC mention in the Significant Tropical Weather Advisory:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S
136.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS INCREASED, SPECIFICALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE, BUT THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO CONVERGENT FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VWS
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
CONSOLIDATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA IN
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE BROAD AND DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.