EPAC: INVEST 90E

[cycloneye]

EP, 90, 2016051418, , BEST, 0, 94N, 1141W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
EP, 90, 2016051500, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1145W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
EP, 90, 2016051506, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1149W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
EP, 90, 2016051512, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1153W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
EP, 90, 2016051518, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1157W, 20, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP902016  05/15/16  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    23    24    25    26    26    25    23    21    17   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LAND       20    22    23    24    25    26    26    25    23    21    17   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LGEM       20    20    20    20    19    17   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         8     6     6     8     8    13    20    24    15    24    31    35    35
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     1     2     1     2     3     2     2     3     4     3     6     6
SHEAR DIR        288   273   264   266   254   239   267   268   252   225   240   265   275
SST (C)         29.3  29.2  29.1  29.0  28.8  28.4  28.0  27.8  27.9  27.7  27.3  27.1  26.9
POT. INT. (KT)   156   155   155   154   151   147   143   142   143   140   135   131   129
200 MB T (C)   -51.2 -51.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     5     5     5     5     6     5     5     5     4     4     3
700-500 MB RH     75    75    74    71    68    64    59    59    58    57    54    57    54
MODEL VTX (KT)     2     3     3     3     2  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR   -20   -26   -37   -52   -66   -86   -94   -90   -86   -69   -48   -27   -21
200 MB DIV       162   171   143   108    83    61     2    16    25    26    37    14     9
700-850 TADV      -2    -2    -1     0    -1     2     2     0     0     2     2     0     0
LAND (KM)       1569  1582  1586  1593  1604  1665  1745  1862  1974  2089  2150  2167  2146
LAT (DEG N)      9.8  10.0  10.3  10.6  10.9  11.2  11.4  11.4  11.5  11.6  11.9  12.3  12.7
LONG(DEG W)    115.7 116.3 117.0 117.7 118.4 119.8 121.2 122.9 124.7 126.4 127.5 128.1 128.2
STM SPEED (KT)     5     7     8     7     7     7     8     9     8     7     5     2     2
HEAT CONTENT      36    35    35    35    31    19    17    30    22    13    13    10     7

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/  4      CX,CY:  -3/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  15            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  478  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  16.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):           22.3

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.  -1.   1.   6.  14.  22.  28.  31.  34.  34.  34.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   2.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -7.  -8.  -8.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -1.  -2.  -4.  -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   4.   4.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   5.   3.   1.  -3.  -7.  -8.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   20. LAT, LON:    9.8   115.7

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST     05/15/16  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.36         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   134.2      40.3  to  144.5       0.90         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    34.4       0.0  to   75.9       0.45         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    16.5      38.9  to    2.1       0.61         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     7.3      18.9  to    1.4       0.66         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    20.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.00           0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   133.4     -11.0  to  135.3       0.99         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    56.6     638.0  to  -68.2       0.82         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.2       2.1  to   -1.7       0.59         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     9.1%   50.1%   49.5%   32.2%   23.4%   51.3%   41.2%
    Bayesian:     2.0%    5.1%    1.9%    0.4%    0.1%    0.8%    1.0%
   Consensus:     3.7%   18.4%   17.1%   10.9%    7.9%   17.4%   14.1%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST     05/15/16  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##

[cycloneye]

Up to 20% but no development is expected.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 15 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 1000 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this
disturbance is expected to be slow to occur during the next couple
of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10
mph. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[NDG]

I'm really surprised they bumped this up to an invest, it has no model support for development.

[Darvince]

It has a small chance of development over the next 36 hours, but after that, nada. It seems sort of like all the Gulf invests last year that were just blobs of thunderstorms

[Yellow Evan]

If it wants to form it needs to do so now, but in May near the ITCZ, such is not likely. We ave this kind of invest every year although this sort of invest is happening a bit earlier than normal, which is a sign that the SE EPAC could be open for business pretty soon, as in late next month, but given the upcoming Nina, this seems somewhat unlikely.

[Kingarabian]

I believe any vigorous area of convection associated with an LLC has a shot.

[stormwise]

I believe any vigorous area of convection associated with an LLC has a shot.

EC Odds increase's to 40-50% upto 90hrs. another 10 knots to a TS is not unrealistic.

[Kingarabian]

Nice map. Where did you get it from?

[Hurricaneman]

I'll still say this might get to depression status but not beyond that looking at its future and little model support

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Kingarabian]

Windsat has a couple of 50kt barbs and a lot of 35kt+ barbs.

[Darvince]

How much of a high bias does Windsat have?

[Kingarabian]

Not sure...

But not too shabby:

[stormwise]

IF this track does come to fruition it may bring the CFSV2 model storm in the GOM into play. Its good the GOM is sheared and not very warm.



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org..

[tolakram]

I believe any vigorous area of convection associated with an LLC has a shot.

EC Odds increase's to 40-50% upto 90hrs. another 10 knots to a TS is not unrealistic.

That appears to be an image from Weatherbell. Please, as a reminder to everyone, do not post images from pay sites.

[Yellow Evan]

Windsat has a couple of 50kt barbs and a lot of 35kt+ barbs.

WindSat isn't reliable for Tc's plain and simple.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure located about 950 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has changed
little in organization since yesterday. Some development of this
disturbance is still possible today while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. After that time, upper-level
winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone
formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

Bye.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 16 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is moving
toward the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Shower activity is very
limited and further development of this low is unlikely due to
unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

Invest has been deactivated.