ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[wxman57]

Well, it does look more interesting on satellite. Will certainly cause a few squalls across the central to southern BoC over the next 48hrs before it moves into Mexico a bit south of where Danielle tracked. I saw a pressure report in northern Belize of 1017.1mb in the past couple of hours. Not very low.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Yucatan Peninsula
and Belize are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some
development of this system is possible on Friday after the low moves
over the Bay of Campeche and before it moves inland on Saturday. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate
the low on Friday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Alyono]

the low looks better defined this afternoon

[wxman57]

I'm not impressed. Absolutely zero model support for anything in the BoC tomorrow/Saturday. What weak, broad LLC it has/had is only made more evident this afternoon because all the convection died out.

[JaxGator]

Convection is blowing up around 95L but some of it could be daytime heating related.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricaneman]

Convection is blowing up around 95L but some of it could be daytime heating related.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

indeed and may be classifiable sometime tonight or tomorrow

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products

[weathaguyry]

[northjaxpro]

Convection is blowing up around 95L but some of it could be daytime heating related.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

It is daytime heated convection on the north and western side of the Yucatan Peninsula. There is very little convection around the weak LLC currently.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Well it's hold the convection this evening, if it is just the heating of the day it still is impressive.

[northjaxpro]

The daytime convective heating cells will die out later this evening. There is hardly any convection currently over the weak low level swirl over land. Once the LLC gets into the Bay of Campeche, it possibly could generate convection near and around the LLC beginning tomorrow.

[TheAustinMan]

18z/June 23 track guidance. Tracks remain fairly B-line in nature with the ridging above. For the intensity models I would focus on models that show weakening after about 48 hours, since that is when the tracks bring 95L to a landfall on the Mexican coastline. I think the other models that show prolonged strengthening are unrealistic or don't take land into account (like the green SHIP line).




Raw SHIPS data. Intensity-wise I'd ignore the "V (KT) NO LAND" line.

Code: Select all

                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL952016  06/23/16  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    25    26    27    29    34    38    43    46    49    53    55    56
V (KT) LAND       25    26    29    30    32    37    34    29    27    27    30    33    33
V (KT) LGEM       25    26    26    29    30    32    29    28    27    27    27    30    30
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        12    15    15    11     9    11    12    17    16    15    13     8     9
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -5    -4    -6    -5    -4     0    -4     0    -5     0    -3     4     0
SHEAR DIR        262   252   271   269   250   257   250   259   239   247   254   241   230
SST (C)         29.8  29.7  29.7  29.9  29.7  29.3  28.9  29.0  29.0  29.2  29.0  26.5  22.8
POT. INT. (KT)   167   165   165   169   165   158   150   152   151   155   151   118    90
ADJ. POT. INT.   162   160   159   163   159   149   139   139   137   142   137   107    82
200 MB T (C)   -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.3  -0.3  -0.2  -0.3  -0.2  -0.2  -0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)       9    10     9     9    11    11    13    13    11     9     7     4     3
700-500 MB RH     73    72    71    71    69    67    66    63    62    64    63    64    62
MODEL VTX (KT)     5     5     6     5     4     4     3  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR   -37   -44   -51   -51   -37   -16     1     2     3    27    15    26     9
200 MB DIV         5    12    15     7    25    12     7    17     2    11   -14     7     3
700-850 TADV       5     7     2     0     1    -2    -3    -8    -1     0    -2     4    -3
LAND (KM)        -63   -99    14   100   181   100   -35  -250  -355  -158     7    72    40
LAT (DEG N)     18.0  18.6  19.1  19.5  20.0  21.0  22.2  22.9  23.5  23.4  23.4  23.2  23.1
LONG(DEG W)     88.8  90.0  91.2  92.4  93.7  96.1  98.2 100.3 102.4 104.5 106.7 108.7 110.6
STM SPEED (KT)    12    13    12    13    13    12    11    10     9    11     9     9     8
HEAT CONTENT      73    34    28    21    18    20    15     0     0     0    24     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11      CX,CY: -10/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  654  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  19.2 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  50.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            8.5

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.  -1.   1.   5.  12.  19.  24.  29.  33.  35.  36.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   4.   3.   1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   5.   4.   4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -7.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -8.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           0.   1.   2.   4.   9.  13.  18.  21.  24.  28.  30.  31.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   18.0    88.8

      ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952016 INVEST     06/23/16  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.60           3.8
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    12.4      28.8  to    2.9       0.63           1.8
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    34.8       0.0  to  155.1       0.22           0.5
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    19.2      37.5  to    2.9       0.53           1.5
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.9       2.8  to   -3.1       0.63           1.7
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.07           0.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    12.8     -23.1  to  181.5       0.18           0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   135.4      28.4  to  139.1       0.97           1.6
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0     100.0  to    0.0       1.00           0.7
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    51.2     960.3  to  -67.1       0.88           0.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   6% is   1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  19% is   1.7 times sample mean (11.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  12% is   1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   9% is   2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  16% is   3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     6.5%   19.3%   11.7%    9.4%    0.0%    0.0%   15.9%
    Logistic:    10.2%   56.4%   44.3%   29.1%    0.0%   16.7%   34.6%
    Bayesian:     0.1%    1.3%    0.3%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.5%
   Consensus:     5.6%   25.7%   18.8%   12.9%    0.0%    5.6%   17.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952016 INVEST     06/23/16  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952016 INVEST     06/23/2016  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  25    26    29    30    32    37    34    29    27    27    30    33    33
 18HR AGO           25    24    27    28    30    35    32    27    25    25    28    31    31
 12HR AGO           25    22    21    22    24    29    26    21    19    19    22    25    25
  6HR AGO           25    19    16    15    17    22    19   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorm activity continues near the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico in association with a broad area of low
pressure. There are currently no signs of organization.
However, some development of this system is possible Friday or
Friday night as the low moves over the Bay of Campeche. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate
the low on Friday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Hammy]

No model support, and any circulation appears to be SW of Guatemala, and well outside of the convection (and already buried over land at this point.

Not sure why this was tagged or why they're flying out tomorrow. And they had a good record of only tagging systems that eventually developed up to this point.

[weathaguyry]

0z

[Alyono]

low should move offshore in 3 to 6 hours

[cycloneye]

No Earl here.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of
Campeche in association with a broad area of low pressure. This
system has become less organized since yesterday and the aircraft
reconnaissance mission scheduled for this afternoon has been
cancelled. Significant development of the low is not expected
before it moves inland over eastern Mexico on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake

[weathaguyry]

Well, that's the story of 95-L...

[stormwise]

Another quick spinup maybe here.

[Nimbus]

A convective burst in the BOC near 20N may have be associated with a LLC.
Heavy shear from the south would probably prevent development in that area.

[NDG]

Well, both the GFS and Euro did very well with no development with this system
Too much ridging to the north keeping this invest far south inland.