Bay of Bengal: INVEST 94B

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94B INVEST 160628 0600 18.1N 85.5E IO 20 1007

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AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.1N 85.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 280559Z GCOM 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A RECENT 280345Z PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED THE FORMATION OF THE LLCC WITH 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITHIN CONVECTION. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE OFFSET BY STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST INDIAN COASTLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.7N
85.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 84.8E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST OF
VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF UNORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC ROTATION. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PREVIOUSLY
OBSERVED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY IS NO LONGER EVIDENT IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT RECENT OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA SUGGEST A
CIRCULATION MAY EXIST WITHIN THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL BEING OFFSET BY STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A DEEPENING TROUGH BUT ARE
SLOW TO DEVELOP THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.