WPAC: INVEST 92W

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92W INVEST 160824 0000 25.9N 148.9E WPAC 15 1010

East of Lionrock and Northeast of 14W...

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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.0N 149.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 440 NM NORTH EAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP FLARING CONVECTION
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANAYSIS REVEALS A POOR
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR INTERACTION WITH TD 14W
BEYOND TAU 36 MOVING IN A NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION. DUE TO THE WEAK
ENVIRONMENT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.9N
148.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 148.2E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP BROAD CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG
(25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
26 CELSIUS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

TXPQ25 KNES 240259
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 24/0230Z

C. 27.0N

D. 148.5E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES LESS THAN 75NM FROM LARGE COLD
OVERCAST YIELDS SHEAR MATRIX DT=1.5. MET AND PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI