ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/774381703066427392

[cycloneye]

Due to strong upper-level winds, shower and thunderstorm activity
has become less organized and is now located farther southeast of an
area of low pressure located just south of the lower Florida Keys.
Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant
development while this system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days.
However, squalls and gusty winds are possible in portions of the
Florida Keys tonight and Saturday. For additional information on
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Aric Dunn]

looking at key west, miami, tampa and orlando soundings... the is a sharp drop in the 350 to 250mb northerly winds. east of the line belore(roughly ) winds are from 20 to 35kts.. west of that line its drops to 10 to 15kts this appears to be moving slightly faster than the shear axis and if it gets ahead of it overnight it would be in a better environment at least from a shear point of view. still better conditions in 36 hours or so.

[floridasun78]

we only got weak rain band from 92l day was not that bad hope weekend is better

[terrapintransit]

I'm really surprised the NHC lowered the chances of this one from 40% to 30%. I realize the cloud tops got blown off but they are quickly coming back. When they start to wrap, get ready! The sheer direction will also be changing to a more South to North flow which will help it. Just look how fast it came together overnight last night! They are underestimating those warm water temps in the Gulf. This thing could really get it's act together quickly and pull another Katrina. Eerily similiar track and potential circumstanes. This is all just my opinion of course but I had to get it off my chest. We shall see what materializes and I'm always prepared to eat crow.

[SoupBone]

I'm really surprised the NHC lowered the chances of this one from 40% to 30%. I realize the cloud tops got blown off but they are quickly coming back. When they start to wrap, get ready! The sheer direction will also be changing to a more South to North flow which will help it. Just look how fast it came together overnight last night! They are underestimating those warm water temps in the Gulf. This thing could really get it's act together quickly and pull another Katrina. Eerily similiar track and potential circumstanes. This is all just my opinion of course but I had to get it off my chest. We shall see what materializes and I'm always prepared to eat crow.

I don't see it I guess, but to me it looks like the tops keep getting blown off quickly from the visible. Unless that weakens, I don't see how it can even begin to consolidate.

[Nimbus]

92L was looking pretty shallow last night but the convection is firing just to the east of the remnant center now. Hermine took 3 days to recover from the shear and was a little stronger as she passed Key West. ASCAT missed but we should get some better information from the visible this morning.

[GCANE]

WV is showing that mid-level dry slot coming down from the north beginning to get cut off.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

NAM shows it pretty much done in about 18 hrs.



Eastern part of the GOM is setting up with an Anti-Cyclone

[stormreader]

WV is showing that mid-level dry slot coming down from the north beginning to get cut off.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

NAM shows it pretty much done in about 18 hrs.

http://imageshack.com/a/img922/8522/hgCCJZ.png

Eastern part of the GOM is setting up with an Anti-Cyclone

http://imageshack.com/a/img921/8397/UEZqNX.gif

Good post!

[cycloneye]

Satellite and radar data indicate that the weak area of low pressure
located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing
limited shower activity. Upper-level winds are not favorable for
development, and the low is forecast to weaken while it moves
westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[GCANE]

WV is showing that mid-level dry slot coming down from the north beginning to get cut off.

NAM shows it pretty much done in about 18 hrs.

Eastern part of the GOM is setting up with an Anti-Cyclone

Good post!

Thanks

[Steve]

Tight naked swirl interacting with that push of dry air coming down from the north causing showers to the SE where there may be a mid level spin.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

NAMs like it a little and want to move a 1009/1010 low up toward the western panhandle. CMC goes nuts overall. It moves 92L into South Texas, hits Florida from the east with possibly 93L and then landfalls a pretty strong system at the MS/AL line and then hits northern Mexico with a system coming out of the BoC. I've been missing the Canadian this year as it's almost been rational a few times. But this is greatness.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

[lrak]

The HWRF shows a 1002 low due east of CC TX next week. Was it the HWRF the one that did a good job with Hermine? Also 92L is just about to get out of the heavy shear, I wonder?

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern Gulf
of Mexico is devoid of thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are
not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to weaken
further while it moves westward across the central Gulf of Mexico
at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[stormreader]

Wondering what we might see in central GOM in about 36 hours?? WV imagery suggests that both ULL's (one on either side of N GOM) may be filling in allowing for upper level high to develop over central GOM. But there is very little model support for much of anything to come from this. But it still may BEAR watching.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

[Steve]

NAM 18s take about 3 days for the low to deepen. I'm not sure if it will last that long, but it's been a persistent area as it has tracked across the Atlantic.

[Aric Dunn]

odd.. its started moving wsw almost SW. I wonder why. bit of loops maybe... maybe some deeper convection might start to pop soon ..

[GCANE]

odd.. its started moving wsw almost SW. I wonder why. bit of loops maybe... maybe some deeper convection might start to pop soon ..

I noticed that too.

I think there is some developing vorticity with the convection to the west of it.

The interaction of the two may be a Fujiwhara effect where they begin to rotate around each other.

Dosen't look like any shear for that large pop-up over Cuba.

[Aric Dunn]

odd.. its started moving wsw almost SW. I wonder why. bit of loops maybe... maybe some deeper convection might start to pop soon ..

I noticed that too.

I think there is some developing vorticity with the convection to the west of it.

The interaction of the two may be a Fujiwhara effect where they begin to rotate around each other.

Dosen't look like any shear for that large pop-up over Cuba.

yeah not sure why such a drastic turn. but shear is lightening for sure. especially farther south.

[GCANE]

The ULL over the west GOM is weakening pretty dramatically and the ULL running thru the Bahamas looks like its beginning to erode as well.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html