ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[Javlin]

EURO and GFS shows the shear machine in full of force in the Caribbean down the road. Could be very tough road.ahead for 92L

The NHC did not mention any problems with shear in their latest two and they normally do if shear is in the forecast ahead of a system they are monitoring.

Shear seems to change from day to day and with the number of ULL's out there this season...

[beoumont]

Well, Miami ain't happening, but a Wilma-esque track is possible.

A Wilma-esque track in mid-September? The most similar storm to Wilma (Mitch) was even later in the year.

Didn't come from the SW but Cleo hit Miami coming north out of the Carib. in August, 1964. MIA had gusts to 135 mph.

"The hurricane was the first to directly strike Miami since Hurricane King in the 1950 season.[1] Cleo intensified rapidly just prior to landfall, bringing sustained winds of 100–105 mph (160 km/h–170 km/h) with gusts to 135 mph (215 km/h) to the Miami area, due to moving over water temperatures of 30 to 32 degrees Celsius and its compact size."

[beoumont]

EURO and GFS shows the shear machine in full of force in the Caribbean down the road. Could be very tough road.ahead for 92L

The NHC did not mention any problems with shear in their latest two and they normally do if shear is in the forecast ahead of a system they are monitoring.

Shear seems to change from day to day and with the number of ULL's out there this season...

Current GFS has a cold low/trough rolling westward out in front of the sharp tropical wave; and weakening considerably by the time it (the upper low) reaches the western Carib. In general that scenario is very good for intensification. I can only guess the NHC is pessimistic on development because of dry air, or the they are staring at the forecast surface models a little too much.

It also happens to be Labor Day Weekend, when that magic hurricane dust is most often in the atmosphere.

[centuryv58]

EURO and GFS shows the shear machine in full of force in the Caribbean down the road. Could be very tough road.ahead for 92L

The NHC did not mention any problems with shear in their latest two and they normally do if shear is in the forecast ahead of a system they are monitoring.

Shear seems to change from day to day and with the number of ULL's out there this season...

You both have a good point for this Invest. "Shear today, gone tomorrow" an old weather proverb.

[LarryWx]

Despite what may look like a LLC near 15-16N, 58-59W per visible loops, the 12Z GFS has no LLC anywhere near there and only has a wave with lowest SLP well to the SW near 12N and 61W and doesn't strengthen it at all. So, as I see it, either there is no LLC and nothing will happen anytime soon or there is one and the GFS is somehow completely missing it meaning all bets are off.
Any chance that what the visible loop is showing is really a mid level circulation?

['CaneFreak]

It is possible but if you look closely at the RGB, the low level clouds (brighter colors) on the south side are clearly moving northward into it and the bands on the west side are beginning to move southward. I think the GFS missed it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

Despite what may look like a LLC near 15-16N, 58-59W per visible loops, the 12Z GFS has no LLC anywhere near there and only has a wave with lowest SLP well to the SW near 12N and 61W and doesn't strengthen it at all. So, as I see it, either there is no LLC and nothing will happen anytime soon or there is one and the GFS is somehow completely missing it meaning all bets are off.
Any chance that what the visible loop is showing is really a mid level circulation?

[LarryWx]

The very unreliable CMC (12Z) develops this as a Caribbean Cruiser similar to what it's 0Z run did fwiw.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC 180 hours:

[lalearner]

The very unreliable CMC (12Z) develops this as a Caribbean Cruiser similar to what it's 0Z run did fwiw.

CMC predicted Hermine's path pretty well as far back as the 12z run 8/29.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS slows the disturbance down significantly as it reaches the NW Caribbean and brings the energy associated with the wave into the Western Gulf. By next weekend a surface reflection begins to organize as a weak frontal boundary nears N Texas. The latest Super Ensembles suggest a weakness over Texas/Louisiana around the 10th to 12th which fits rather well with climatology for an organizing tropical system emerging out of the NW Caribbean Sea.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM shows the vorticity from 92l heading WNW over Haiti/Eastern Cuba and approaching SE Florida by day 5:

[Rgv20]

6zGFS Ensembles have the Ridge enough to the North that 92L should gain some Latitude once it emerges in the SW GOM in 6 days or so. 12zGFS develops 92L just east of Brownsville in 9 to 10 days.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro also does essentially nothing with it through hour 48

[PTrackerLA]

You can actually track the energy from 92L all the way to the GOM where it looks like it tries some development by day 7

[Tireman4]

Lots of flip flopping, acreage to cover and time to focus. I am sure this will pose discussion for days to come.

[PTrackerLA]

Lots of flip flopping, acreage to cover and time to focus. I am sure this will pose discussion for days to come.

Yep just something to keep an eye on since both the CMC and GFS want to spin something up in the western GOM around this timeframe.

12z GFS day 10:

[gatorcane]

If you follow the 850mb vorticity charts closely on the 18Z GFS, I believe the weak vort it is showing in the Eastern Gulf is 92l:

[Siker]

If you follow the 850mb vorticity charts closely on the 18Z GFS, I believe the weak vort it is showing in the Eastern Gulf is 92l:

Yes, the GFS basically splits the energy with one half feeling the tug of a trough to the north and moving into the Eastern Gulf while the other half moves across the Yucatan and into Mexico.

[northjaxpro]

It may be a bit too soon to hone in down the road, but I think the weakness left behind in Hermine's aftermath may remain a very significant player in the next week or so should and if 92L can survive and advance in the coming days.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM brings 92l to South Florida similar to the 12Z. 0 to 132 hour loop showing track below: