WPAC: INVEST 95W

[Extratropical94]

95W INVEST 160901 1800 19.6N 143.2E WPAC 15 1010

[Extratropical94]

JMA 06Z:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 19N 145E WSW SLOWLY.

JTWC 06Z:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.6N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED BUT EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 020003Z METOP-A 89GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS POLEWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

TXPQ27 KNES 021529
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 02/1430Z

C. 19.2N

D. 145.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LACK OF MEASURABLE CONVECTION YIELDS A DT OF TWTC. MET=1.0
WITH PT LESS THAN 1.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS WHERE T NUMBER CANNOT
BE LOWERED AT NIGHT DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6N
145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 144.9E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DEFINED BUT EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE
LLCC. A 030336Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A BROAD CENTER WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 022340
METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH 05-10 KNOT WINDS
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM BUT 20 KNOT
VWS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, HAMPERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE
WIND FLOW FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST ARE
CAUSING GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AND OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKS POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.