SOUTH PACIFIC: 93P INVEST

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Digital-TC-Chaser
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SOUTH PACIFIC: 93P INVEST

#1 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:58 pm

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPS21
Issued at 05/0130Z


93P INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 05, 2017:

Location: 19.4°S 170.1°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

Image


WTPS21 PGTW 050130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.4S 170.1W TO 22.6S 170.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.4S 170.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.6S 169.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 170.1W, APPROXIMATELY
300 NM NORTHEAST OF TONGA. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 042056Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 042058Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C). MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060130Z.//





TPPS10 PGTW 050257

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93P (S OF PAGO PAGO)

B. 05/0223Z

C. 19.53S

D. 170.13W

E. FIVE/GOES15

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
04/2226Z 19.13S 169.92W GPMI


MARTINEZ
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Digital-TC-Chaser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1134
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:45 pm

S PAC:14P JTWC

#2 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:08 pm

14P FOURTEEN 170405 1800 20.6S 170.5W SHEM 35 998
Image


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