EPAC: INVEST 94E

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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#21 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 04, 2017 2:16 pm

Has potential to be a TD very soon if it can maintain convection near the center:

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#22 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 04, 2017 3:20 pm

TXPZ27 KNES 041818
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 04/1800Z

C. 16.7N

D. 113.4W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL, LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES AND A CENTER NEAR A SMALL COLD OVERCAST RESULTING IN A DT OF 1.5
USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET BECAUSE
CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER IS NEWLY DEVELOPED AND HAS NOT
BEEN PERSISTENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK


Looks like SAB will give it a 1.5 as long as it maintains convection.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#23 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 04, 2017 5:25 pm

Shear appears to be relaxing as we're seeing outflow becoming persistent to the N and NW of the system. Also the low seems to be consolidating further.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#24 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 04, 2017 6:42 pm

It has to hurry before time runs out very soon.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
area located about 550 miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has become a little better organized
during the afternoon, but satellite data indicates that a
well-defined circulation does not yet exist. This system still has
the potential to become a tropical depression during the next day or
two before it moves westward into a less favorable environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#25 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:23 pm

1.5/1.5 from SAB. I would say it's ready to go.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#26 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:21 pm

Kingarabian wrote:1.5/1.5 from SAB. I would say it's ready to go.


Last hr visible sat loop before sunset and ASCAT from earlier today still indicates that the COC still is elongated and weak.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#27 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 05, 2017 1:10 am

Moving away from 30kts of shear towards lesser 20kts of shear. May have a chance of developing in 12hrs. Then runs into a great wall of 40kt shear which should shred it.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#28 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 05, 2017 7:29 am

Satellite data suggests that a low pressure system located about
550 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has become a little better defined this morning. However,
the associated showers and thunderstorms remain displaced well to
the south of the center. This system still has the potential to
become a tropical depression later today or tonight before it moves
westward into a less favorable environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#29 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:49 am

Look at how badly exposed the centre is. Convection has also decreased. Personally I have my doubts as to whether this develops at all.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#30 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 05, 2017 12:24 pm

:uarrow: Yeah, chances should come down drastically in the next TWO, seems like the naked LLC is already embedded in a stable cooler marine layer.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#31 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 05, 2017 12:44 pm

Is over.

Showers and thunderstorms have decreased during the past several
hours in association with a low pressure system located about 600
miles southwest of the Baja California peninsula. This low is
beginning to move into less favorable environmental conditions, and
the chances of this system becoming a tropical depression are
decreasing. The low is expected to move westward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#32 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 05, 2017 1:38 pm

Took too long to develop and did not develop a CDO in time or any sustained convection to help fend off shear. Surprised it didn't make it. On to the next.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 05, 2017 6:46 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 675 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have continued to decrease this
afternoon. The low is moving westward at 10 to 15 mph into less
favorable environment conditions, and the chances of this system
becoming a tropical depressions are decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#34 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Jul 05, 2017 6:51 pm

Well, it's dead. :lol: :lol:
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