EPAC: INVEST 94E

[cycloneye]

EP, 94, 2017070118, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1045W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS007, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 007,
EP, 94, 2017070200, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1050W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS007, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 007,
EP, 94, 2017070206, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1054W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS007, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 007,
EP, 94, 2017070212, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1058W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS007, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 007,
EP, 94, 2017070218, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1062W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 007, SPAWNINVEST, ep772017 to ep942017,

[cycloneye]

First crack on the possible intensity on this first run by SHIP it has a moderate Tropical Storm but does not stay alive more days as the 12z Euro had.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942017 07/02/17 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 28 34 40 44 46 45 44 42 38
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 28 34 40 44 46 45 44 42 38
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 24 23 22 21 20
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 7 10 13 12 10 6 6 3 5 6 9 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 0 -4 -4 -3 -4
SHEAR DIR 45 42 28 36 48 46 10 348 332 211 186 207 222
SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 27.8 26.9 26.7 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.0 25.4
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 151 143 134 132 120 118 117 115 120
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4
700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 78 77 74 70 66 61 57 53 53 49
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -28 -35 -38 -35 -26 -24 -11 -5 3 21 33 32 33
200 MB DIV 34 40 44 38 37 61 31 30 27 21 33 43 36
700-850 TADV -5 -4 -6 -6 -3 -5 -2 -4 0 1 2 5 3
LAND (KM) 799 806 810 818 820 924 992 1108 1286 1506 1780 2050 2300
LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.6 14.5 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.1 15.8 15.5
LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.9 107.8 108.7 109.8 112.0 114.6 117.2 120.2 123.4 126.8 130.1 133.5
STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 16 16 16
HEAT CONTENT 35 36 44 41 35 21 11 14 2 1 1 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 22. 27. 31. 33. 33. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 25. 24. 22. 18.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.6 106.2

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 07/02/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.36 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 34.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.7% 4.3% 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 8.4% 7.6% 2.9%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 2.9% 2.7% 1.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 07/02/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) #

[Kingarabian]

Going to lean with the Euro on this one in regards to development since the GFS continues to show very little out of this invest. It continues to exhibit a nice structure and the environment is favorable for intensification.

[weathaguyry]

It still has quite a bit of organizing to do,

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: It still has quite a bit of organizing to do,

Yeah it's quite large but vorticity has been increasing. I'd give it 24 more hours.

[Yellow Evan]

Very messy.

[RL3AO]

When you look at the big picture, it's an impressive disturbance. However, due to the size, it'll probably be slow to develop and not have too much time to strengthen.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942017 07/03/17 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 36 44 49 54 54 55 52 48
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 36 44 49 54 54 55 52 48
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 24 25 25 25 26 25
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 11 12 10 10 6 6 5 1 1 6 7 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2
SHEAR DIR 21 17 25 27 37 23 346 357 19 37 184 223 229
SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.5 27.0 26.1 25.4 25.4 25.1 25.2 25.6
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 153 152 150 140 135 127 120 120 116 117 121
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4
700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 78 76 75 68 64 59 54 55 55 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 6 5 4 5 5 6 7 8 7 7
850 MB ENV VOR -36 -44 -39 -32 -31 -20 -8 -2 9 22 38 35 28
200 MB DIV 36 41 35 33 50 49 37 36 37 26 36 41 35
700-850 TADV -4 -5 -5 -3 -4 -2 -1 -3 -1 -2 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 820 836 837 836 869 985 1044 1220 1405 1671 1942 2225 2133
LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.5 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.1 15.9 15.5 15.2
LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.6 108.5 109.5 110.6 113.0 115.7 118.7 122.0 125.4 128.8 132.0 135.2
STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 12 12 13 14 16 16 16 16 15 16
HEAT CONTENT 36 42 44 39 38 14 17 11 2 1 0 1 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 24. 29. 34. 34. 35. 32. 28.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.7 106.8

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 07/03/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.37 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 38.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.5% 14.7% 5.5% 4.3% 2.1% 18.0% 32.1% 18.4%
Bayesian: 0.1% 5.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 2.0% 0.5%
Consensus: 0.8% 6.8% 2.3% 1.6% 0.7% 6.3% 11.4% 6.3%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 07/03/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[hurricanes1234]

Up to 40% / 60% ...

1. A broad area of low pressure is located about 650 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance have increased in coverage since yesterday, but the circulation remains elongated. Additional development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is located about 625 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The low's
circulation is becoming a little better defined, and the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
and a tropical depression could form before the system reaches
colder water in a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure located about 650 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little
during the past several hours. However, environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development to occur while the low
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression
could form before the system reaches colder water in a couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942017 07/04/17 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 30 34 35 34 33 29 26 22 19
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 30 34 35 34 33 29 26 22 19
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 21 21 20 19 18 16
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 14 14 12 14 7 3 7 10 10 14 18 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 2 0 -1 -4 -4 -2 -4 -2 -3
SHEAR DIR 17 1 350 344 342 341 333 258 241 260 258 266 264
SST (C) 28.3 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.0 25.5 25.0 24.6 24.5 25.0 25.6 26.0 26.3
POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 140 139 136 121 115 111 109 114 119 123 126
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5
700-500 MB RH 76 75 72 70 67 60 56 53 52 52 55 54 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 10 9 11 9 8 8 7 7 6 5
850 MB ENV VOR -29 -19 -7 -2 3 4 20 20 34 29 34 22 31
200 MB DIV 54 50 53 39 32 14 19 -3 15 19 19 15 16
700-850 TADV -6 -6 -7 -6 -9 -6 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 0
LAND (KM) 930 943 942 959 1020 1160 1402 1641 1908 2181 2183 2031 1838
LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.4 17.7 17.8 17.4 16.7 16.0 15.5 15.4
LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.0 114.2 115.5 117.0 120.2 123.5 126.8 129.8 132.5 134.5 136.1 138.0
STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 15 15 16 16 15 14 12 9 8 10
HEAT CONTENT 22 10 6 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 9. 10. 9. 8. 4. 1. -3. -6.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 112.0

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942017 INVEST 07/04/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 1.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.30 1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 0.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.2
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.23 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 85.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.79 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 9.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.1% 3.6% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 2.5% 3.3% 0.1%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942017 INVEST 07/04/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

Finally a decent blow up of centerized convection. Let's see if it can maintain it.

[Kingarabian]

1.0/1.0 SAB

[weathaguyry]

Models not very enthusiastic...

[RL3AO]

Models not very enthusiastic...

[http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/94E_intensity_latest.png[/img]

Yeah. This one was always racing the clock. The next two should be much stronger.

[Ntxw]

Models not very enthusiastic...

[http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/94E_intensity_latest.png[/img]

Yeah. This one was always racing the clock. The next two should be much stronger.

Yeah it's envelope was too large and took to long to begin with. The following systems agreed will be much more defined. Possibly twin hurricanes at some point?

[Yellow Evan]

Center reforming to the north.

EP, 94, 2017070418, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1135W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 007

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 500 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of organization.
This system still has the potential to become a tropical depression
during the next day or two before it moves westward into a less
favorable environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.