ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

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ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

#1 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:47 am

ATCF Best Track
System ID: AL96 (INVEST)
0600 UTC Jul 18, 2017
Location: 10.4°N, 37.4°W
Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 25 kt (29 mph)
Type: Disturbance (DB)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby AtlanticWind » Tue Jul 18, 2017 1:04 am

System is flaring up tonight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jul 18, 2017 1:05 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 180547
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Don, located about 300 miles east-southeast of Barbados.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system,
is located over the central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development
of this system is possible through mid-week while it moves toward
the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. After that time,
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Don are issued under WMO header
WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Don are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby stormreader » Tue Jul 18, 2017 1:22 am

Yep. 96l looking very healthy tonight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#5 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 18, 2017 1:24 am

Looking very similar to Don about 24 hours ago.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#6 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:15 am

well on its way.. like with everything in the MDR if it can stay clear of the SAL it has a chance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jul 18, 2017 3:14 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#8 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 18, 2017 4:14 am

Looking at MIMIC-TPW and COAMPS forecast, this one has more juice behind it.
Could be a problem in the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#9 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 18, 2017 4:18 am

Well, this is well on its way of being our next tropical cyclone. It has re-fired convection very nicely the past six hours, as I thought it would. I expect that this may be TD 5 or even Emily. possibly as early as within the next 12-24 hours. This one will traverse north of the Caribbean and the potential is there to have a long CV tracker here. This is the one to watch.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#10 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 18, 2017 4:21 am

Looking at GFS Forecast, Mid-Level RH and 355K PV; if this puppy stays weak as a wave till about 50W and doesn't make an early move poleward, we may have something a bit stronger than what we have seen so far this year.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 18, 2017 4:25 am

Strong tower firing off at dawn.
Building a cirrus canopy.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#12 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 18, 2017 4:33 am

Persistant anti-cyclone has been hanging over this for some time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#13 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 18, 2017 4:37 am

SAL being entrained into this. This is what allowed Don to develop
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#14 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 18, 2017 4:39 am

:uarrow: Yes GCANE that is a very impressive hot tower here at the crack of dawn this morning!

Good observations you made about 96L GCANE. I also think that this system will be able to fend off the SAL. It is looking really nice early this morning. If the trends I am seeing right now continue, we may have Emily born within the next day or two.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 18, 2017 4:46 am

Like with TD#4 even if this finds a much better environment down the road I wouldn't count too much on this amounting to much. The only thing it has going for it is this potentially becoming Emily which seems to always make a run at retirement. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#16 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 18, 2017 5:08 am

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Yes GCANE that is a very impressive hot tower here at the crack of dawn this morning!

Good observations you made about 96L GCANE. I also think that this system will be able to fend off the SAL. It is looking really nice early this morning. If the trends I am seeing right now continue, we may have Emily born within the next day or two.


Much thanks Northjaxpro. Two models, JMA & UKM, already have this initialized.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#17 Postby Nimbus » Tue Jul 18, 2017 6:00 am

GCANE wrote:Looking at GFS Forecast, Mid-Level RH and 355K PV; if this puppy stays weak as a wave till about 50W and doesn't make an early move poleward, we may have something a bit stronger than what we have seen so far this year.


Be interesting to watch the model evolution.
I assume the track would drop like a fly swatter if there is no early development before the islands?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2017 6:59 am

The large Gyre maybe transfering energy father SW to a new circ as you can see the monsoon trough buckling will be interesting to see farther south would put it in a much more moist environment and all likely no longer be a fish if it developed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 18, 2017 7:01 am

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a low
pressure system located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development of this system is
possible through mid-week while it moves toward the west-northwest
or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#20 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 18, 2017 7:37 am

I think this invest is going to have a tougher time than Don with the SAL, Don was able to stay in a low latitude away from it while this Invest is gaining latitude into the heart of the SAL.

The dust is very clearly seen on visible satellite this morning.

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