ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

[otowntiger]

Yes, I don't know that this system has a great future due to all that dry air. The NHC in their statement say that in the next few days conditions become less conducive than it currently has.

[weathaguyry]

I think this is more proof that once SAL goes away, the MDR will be cranking

[Alyono]

I think this is more proof that once SAL goes away, the MDR will be cranking

SAL is a double edged sword. When we have SAL, we have stronger waves because of the contrast between the rain forest and the desert. 2005 showed what happens when there is no SAL. The waves are very weak, but they can develop in the western part of the basin as they eventually find favorable condition

[cycloneye]

@BigJoeBastardi
not much hope for 96L IMO too much dry air.. self destruct intensification ala Don, if anything at all

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/887339204501540865

[ScottNAtlanta]

Like with TD#4 even if this finds a much better environment down the road I wouldn't count too much on this amounting to much. The only thing it has going for it is this potentially becoming Emily which seems to always make a run at retirement.

Every other cycle...and this is the one

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms remain limited in association with a
well-defined low pressure system located over a 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development
of this system is possible during the next two days while it moves
toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. After that
time, environmental conditions are forecast to become hostile for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking better this afternoon well defined circ that has become more circular throughout the morning with new convection building. its a large circulation and has a pretty good shot if it can keep convection sporadically. it may stay farther south at this rate.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Sciencerocks]

Looking better this afternoon well defined circ that has become more circular throughout the morning with new convection building. its a large circulation and has a pretty good shot if it can keep convection sporadically. it may stay farther south at this rate.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Briefly looking at the visables of Don and this, I'd say that the LLC's are similar in organizion. Easterly shear is effecting it but during the past hour there does appear to be a healthy blow up of convection. It wouldn't take much as you said above to make this a depression as we'd only need a ascat or buoy/ship report to confirm that this is closed with consistent convection.

[stormreader]

@BigJoeBastardi
not much hope for 96L IMO too much dry air.. self destruct intensification ala Don, if anything at all

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/887339204501540865

Could be time to begin some evacuations. Lol

[ROCK]

doesn't look all bad but stable air to the north could at any moment be dragged into the circulation. Then poof...

[abajan]

And just like that, it's all over!

[johngaltfla]

@BigJoeBastardi
not much hope for 96L IMO too much dry air.. self destruct intensification ala Don, if anything at all

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/887339204501540865

I'll go with Big Joe on this one.

Any move to the NW/NNW will kill it.

But it is an ominous sign for August that one TS and another Invest has formed in the 2 weeks b4 August 1.

[Aric Dunn]

This is what it needs to keep doing. Another burst of convection over the center. Still needs to be watched since it might end up moving more westerly now.

[GCANE]

Not dead yet, its still has a heart beat

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[GCANE]

Firing pretty close to the estimated CoC

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 181545.jpg

[northjaxpro]

Not dead yet, its still has a heart beat

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Indeed it does. We can keep Bones on the on deck circle just a little while longer with this particular system.

[Aric Dunn]

The upper high and the center have been becoming more aligned. shear has dropped a lot. let's see if this convective burst can maintain and expand a little.

[cainjamin]

Looking pretty good tonight. Some possible banding forming to the southwest and northeast of a small convection ball. Looking better than Don ever did IMO.

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like a classic MDR developing system tonight.

[AtlanticWind]

The hostile conditions that the NHC mentions,is that just the sale or is shear also forecast to increase?