ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

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otowntiger
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#21 Postby otowntiger » Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:44 am

Yes, I don't know that this system has a great future due to all that dry air. The NHC in their statement say that in the next few days conditions become less conducive than it currently has.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#22 Postby weathaguyry » Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:59 am

I think this is more proof that once SAL goes away, the MDR will be cranking
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#23 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:07 am

weathaguyry wrote:I think this is more proof that once SAL goes away, the MDR will be cranking



SAL is a double edged sword. When we have SAL, we have stronger waves because of the contrast between the rain forest and the desert. 2005 showed what happens when there is no SAL. The waves are very weak, but they can develop in the western part of the basin as they eventually find favorable condition
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#24 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:11 am

@BigJoeBastardi
not much hope for 96L IMO too much dry air.. self destruct intensification ala Don, if anything at all




https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/887339204501540865
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#25 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:24 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Like with TD#4 even if this finds a much better environment down the road I wouldn't count too much on this amounting to much. The only thing it has going for it is this potentially becoming Emily which seems to always make a run at retirement. :lol:

Every other cycle...and this is the one :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#26 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:33 pm

Showers and thunderstorms remain limited in association with a
well-defined low pressure system located over a 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development
of this system is possible during the next two days while it moves
toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. After that
time, environmental conditions are forecast to become hostile for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#27 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:45 pm

Looking better this afternoon well defined circ that has become more circular throughout the morning with new convection building. its a large circulation and has a pretty good shot if it can keep convection sporadically. it may stay farther south at this rate.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#28 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jul 18, 2017 1:26 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Looking better this afternoon well defined circ that has become more circular throughout the morning with new convection building. its a large circulation and has a pretty good shot if it can keep convection sporadically. it may stay farther south at this rate.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html



Briefly looking at the visables of Don and this, I'd say that the LLC's are similar in organizion. Easterly shear is effecting it but during the past hour there does appear to be a healthy blow up of convection. It wouldn't take much as you said above to make this a depression as we'd only need a ascat or buoy/ship report to confirm that this is closed with consistent convection.


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#29 Postby stormreader » Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:@BigJoeBastardi
not much hope for 96L IMO too much dry air.. self destruct intensification ala Don, if anything at all




https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/887339204501540865


Could be time to begin some evacuations. Lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#30 Postby ROCK » Tue Jul 18, 2017 2:03 pm

doesn't look all bad but stable air to the north could at any moment be dragged into the circulation. Then poof...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#31 Postby abajan » Tue Jul 18, 2017 3:12 pm

And just like that, it's all over! :lol:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#32 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Jul 18, 2017 5:05 pm

cycloneye wrote:@BigJoeBastardi
not much hope for 96L IMO too much dry air.. self destruct intensification ala Don, if anything at all




https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/887339204501540865


I'll go with Big Joe on this one.

Any move to the NW/NNW will kill it.

But it is an ominous sign for August that one TS and another Invest has formed in the 2 weeks b4 August 1. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#33 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2017 6:29 pm

This is what it needs to keep doing. Another burst of convection over the center. Still needs to be watched since it might end up moving more westerly now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#34 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 18, 2017 7:16 pm

Not dead yet, its still has a heart beat

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#35 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 18, 2017 7:20 pm

Firing pretty close to the estimated CoC

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 181545.jpg
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#36 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 18, 2017 7:32 pm

GCANE wrote:Not dead yet, its still has a heart beat

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


Indeed it does. We can keep Bones on the on deck circle just a little while longer with this particular system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#37 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:07 pm

The upper high and the center have been becoming more aligned. shear has dropped a lot. let's see if this convective burst can maintain and expand a little.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#38 Postby cainjamin » Tue Jul 18, 2017 10:32 pm

Image

Looking pretty good tonight. Some possible banding forming to the southwest and northeast of a small convection ball. Looking better than Don ever did IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#39 Postby AtlanticWind » Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:32 pm

Looks like a classic MDR developing system tonight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#40 Postby AtlanticWind » Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:40 pm

The hostile conditions that the NHC mentions,is that just the sale or is shear also forecast to increase?
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